Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 17:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:00 UTC - 17:30 UTC)

1. Zelensky Warns of Russian Expansionist Aims (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (17:01 UTC) reports President Zelensky warning that Russia intends to expand its influence to countries that were formerly part of the USSR, specifically naming Ukraine, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Poland.
   • Assessment: This reinforces UKRAINE'S LONG-STANDING POSITION that RUSSIA'S GOALS EXTEND BEYOND UKRAINE. It serves as a CALL FOR INCREASED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT and WARNING to NATO MEMBERS and FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS. This is a STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION effort aimed at MAINTAINING INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION and SECURING ASSISTANCE.

2. Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (17:04 UTC) and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:04 UTC) report an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to the threat of attack drones.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL THREAT to the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.

3. Drone Threats in Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • The Ukrainian Air Force (17:10, 17:24) also issued alerts for Poltava, and Kharkov, indicating drone threats.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL THREAT to the POLTAVA AND KHARKOV REGION.

4. Claimed Drone Shootdowns Over Crimea and Russian Regions (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (17:14 UTC) reports that Russian air defenses have shot down 12 Ukrainian drones over Crimea, the Black Sea, Oryol, and Bryansk Oblasts in the past two hours.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY and RUSSIAN TERRITORY ITSELF. The SCALE of the reported attacks (12 drones) is SIGNIFICANT. AV БогомаZ(17:20) reports that another drone of an aircraft type was shot down over Bryansk.

5. Russian Artillery Strike in Kharkiv Region (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (17:16) posted a video reporting a Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian mortar position in the Kharkiv region.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS in the KHARKIV REGION. The video PROVIDES EVIDENCE of RUSSIAN ARTILLERY TARGETING.

6. Trump Claims Negotiations with Putin (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Multiple sources (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad) report that President Trump has claimed to be engaged in "serious negotiations" with President Putin to end the war in Ukraine and discuss economic agreements between the US and Russia. He claims the negotiations are going "very well."
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY. The DIRECT ENGAGEMENT BETWEEN TRUMP AND PUTIN, WITHOUT APPARENT COORDINATION WITH UKRAINE, is EXTREMELY CONCERNING for UKRAINE'S STRATEGIC POSITION. The claim of "very good" progress suggests a POTENTIAL AGREEMENT that MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE TO UKRAINE. The LACK OF TRANSPARENCY regarding the CONTENT OF THESE NEGOTIATIONS is also HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC.

7. Trump Claims US-Ukraine Mineral Deal Will Offset Military Aid (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (17:26 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (17:19) report that Trump stated a deal on rare earth minerals with Ukraine will compensate the US for military aid provided. The deal reportedly involves 50% of Ukraine's income from "extracted materials" going to a fund where the US is the sole beneficiary.
   • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the US SHIFT TOWARDS A TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH to the UKRAINE CONFLICT. The terms of the reported deal, with the US AS THE SOLE BENEFICIARY of a fund receiving 50% OF UKRAINE'S MINERAL REVENUE, are EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE TO UKRAINE. This raises SERIOUS QUESTIONS about the LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS of US SUPPORT for Ukraine.

8. Fighting near Belogorovka, Seversk Direction(MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Rybar(17:17) reports that Russian Forces have liberated the majority of Belogorovka.

• Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS a shift in the war.

9. Claimed Ukrainian Drone Warfare (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (17:19 UTC) reports that the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down three Russian reconnaissance drones using FPV drones in the Kharkiv region.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITY and EFFECTIVENESS.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Trump's claims of direct negotiations with Putin and a mineral deal highly unfavorable to Ukraine signal a significant and potentially detrimental change in US support.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, and Kharkov Oblasts due to drone threats, and confirmed shootdowns over Crimea and Russian regions.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed artillery strike on a Ukrainian mortar position.
• ZELENSKY WARNS OF RUSSIAN EXPANSIONIST AIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reinforces Ukraine's call for international support and warns NATO members and former Soviet republics.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION ON US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Immediately engage with US officials at the HIGHEST LEVELS to VERIFY Trump's claims of negotiations with Putin and the reported mineral deal.
   • Demand transparency regarding the CONTENT AND OBJECTIVES of these negotiations.
   • Express strong concerns about any potential agreement that UNDERMINES UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
   • Reiterate Ukraine's position on the NECESSITY OF A JUST PEACE SETTLEMENT that FULLY RESTORES UKRAINE'S BORDERS and HOLDS RUSSIA ACCOUNTABLE for its aggression.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AERIAL THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain air defense readiness in ZAPORIZHZHIA, POLTAVA, AND KHARKOV OBLASTS and other threatened areas.
   • Continue to monitor Russian drone activity and PROVIDE EARLY WARNINGS to civilians.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.

3. CONTINUE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING ON RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Focus on verifying Russian claims of territorial gains and ASSESSING RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.
   • Monitor Russian troop movements and deployments, particularly in areas bordering Ukraine.
   • Monitor Russian drone activity.

4. STRENGTHEN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT NETWORK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Intensify diplomatic efforts with EUROPEAN ALLIES and other INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS to MAINTAIN AND STRENGTHEN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
   • Highlight the threat of Russian expansionism to GALVANIZE INTERNATIONAL ACTION.
   • Explore alternative avenues for military and financial assistance in case of reduced US support.

5. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. The REPORTED US POLICY SHIFT, if confirmed, represents a MAJOR THREAT TO UKRAINE'S STRATEGIC POSITION. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to CLARIFY THE US POSITION, MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT, and ADAPT UKRAINE'S STRATEGY to the EVOLVING THREAT LANDSCAPE. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL THREATS and MILITARY OPERATIONS highlight the ONGOING DANGER to UKRAINIAN FORCES AND CIVILIANS.