Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 04:00 UTC

Changes and New Information (03:30 UTC - 04:00 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER'S VISIT TO INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (03:33 UTC) reports that Sergei Shoigu has embarked on a working visit to Indonesia and Malaysia.
   • Assessment: This is likely aimed at STRENGTHENING MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION with these countries, potentially seeking ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF WEAPONRY OR TECHNOLOGY to circumvent Western sanctions. This has LIMITED IMMEDIATE IMPACT on the battlefield in Ukraine, but it is a LONG-TERM STRATEGIC MOVE by Russia.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND COMBAT OPERATIONS REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (03:42 UTC) provides a detailed situation report ("Сводка") for the morning of February 24th. Key claims include:
     • Overnight Geran (Shahed) Drone Strikes: Reports of over 70 Geran drones targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Starokostiantyniv, Kremenets, and Kirovohrad. Previous reports were accurate.
     • Kursk Oblast Success: Confirmed liberation of Maryevka (near Pogrebkov) by the "Sever" (North) grouping. Continued fighting in Lebedevka, with Russian advances.
     • Kurilovka "Cleansing": Russian marine infantry reportedly completing the "cleansing" of Kurilovka.
     • Nikolskoye Advance: Continued advance in Nikolskoye.
     • Belogorovka Caution: Flags raised in Belogorovka, but premature to declare victory.
     • Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) Fighting: Continued fighting in nearby settlements.
     • Pokrovsk Direction: Main fighting south of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and near the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road junction.
     • Konstantinopol Direction: Officially claimed liberation of Ulakly. Russian forces advancing towards Konstantinopol via Andreevka.
     • Bolshaya Novoselka Front: Russian forces leveling the front line, advancing north from Novoocheretuvate towards Dneproenergiya.
     • Belgorod Oblast Attacks: Multiple drone attacks and shelling causing damage to civilian infrastructure and power lines in several villages.
     • Gorlovka Casualties: Two civilians wounded in Gorlovka due to artillery and drone attacks.
   • Assessment: This report provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of Russian claimed advances and ongoing combat operations. It REINFORCES PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS of RUSSIAN PROGRESS in SEVERAL KEY AREAS, particularly in the DONETSK and ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS. The HIGH NUMBER OF REPORTED DRONE STRIKES is SIGNIFICANT. However, it is CRUCIAL to remember that this is a RUSSIAN SOURCE and should be treated with CAUTION until independently verified. Claims of "liberation" and "cleansing" are likely to be exaggerated for propaganda.

3. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KHARKIV CIVILIAN ENTERPRISE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (03:53 UTC), citing Mayor Ihor Terekhov, reports a Russian guided aerial bomb (KAB) strike on a civilian enterprise in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv at 04:00 local time. No casualties reported.
   • Assessment: This confirms the CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRATEGY of TARGETING CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

4. CONFIRMATION OF RYAZAN OIL REFINERY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (03:54 UTC) reports that UAVs attacked the Ryazan oil refinery for the THIRD TIME THIS YEAR, causing a fire. Multiple images and videos confirm the attack.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS and SOLIDIFIES THE ASSESSMENT that Ukraine is ACTIVELY TARGETING RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. This is a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN DEEP-STRIKE CAPABILITIES.

5. GERMAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE UPDATE (LOW PRIORITY):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (03:45:41, 03:45:42) provide data about the 2025 German Elections.
   • Assessment: Relevant for long-term strategic considerations, and to determine the level of support for Ukrainian aid provided by Germany.

6. CENSORSHIP OF PRO-RUSSIAN UKRAINIAN SINGER (LOW PRIORITY):

   • Два майора (03:51:42).
   • Assessment: Irrelevant.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE ON RUSSIAN OIL REFINERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ryazan oil refinery has been successfully attacked by Ukrainian UAVs, causing a fire. This is a major escalation.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE ADVANCES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Detailed Russian reports claim progress in Kursk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions, reinforcing previous assessments, but requiring independent verification.
• WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES OVERNIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of a large number of Geran drones targeting multiple Ukrainian cities.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KHARKIV CIVILIAN ENTERPRISE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms the ongoing targeting of civilian infrastructure.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. REINFORCE AIR DEFENSES AROUND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE IN RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Given the confirmed successful attack on the Ryazan oil refinery, IMMEDIATELY STRENGTHEN AIR DEFENSES around ALL CRITICAL RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly ENERGY FACILITIES.
   • Deploy additional air defense systems and INCREASE PATROLS.
   • Implement measures to DISPERSE AND CONCEAL vulnerable assets.
   • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for dealing with potential disruptions to fuel supplies.

2. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the detailed Russian claims of advances in Kursk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
   • Pay particular attention to claims of "liberation" and "cleansing" of settlements.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed Russian gains on Ukrainian defensive positions.
   • Prepare for potential counter-attacks if necessary.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR FURTHER DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain a high state of readiness for air defense systems across Ukraine.
   • Continue efforts to develop and deploy counter-drone technologies.

4. ADDRESS POTENTIAL FUEL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the impact of the Ryazan oil refinery attack on Russian fuel supplies.
   • Develop contingency plans for fuel rationing and alternative supply routes.
   • Communicate transparently with the population about the situation.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE ON THE RYAZAN OIL REFINERY represents a MAJOR ESCALATION and DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES to TARGET RUSSIAN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and OVERNIGHT DRONE STRIKES add further PRESSURE on Ukrainian defenses. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to STRENGTHEN AIR DEFENSES around CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS, and ADDRESS POTENTIAL FUEL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS.