Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 03:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (03:00 UTC - 03:30 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN "ZAPAD" GROUPING CLAIMS DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN UAV CONTROL POINTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (03:00 UTC) reports that the Russian "Zapad" (West) grouping destroyed 19 Ukrainian UAV control points in the past 24 hours. The report, attributed to Ivan Bigma, head of the grouping's press center, also claims the destruction of three Starlink satellite communication stations, a "Nota" electronic warfare station, and a field ammunition depot. It is also stated that the group improved their tactical position.
   • Assessment: This, if accurate, represents a SIGNIFICANT BLOW TO UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS AND COMMUNICATIONS in the "Zapad" grouping's area of responsibility (primarily the Kupyansk, Dvorechnaya, and Lyman directions, including Peschanoye, Shiykovka, Yampolovke, Zagorovke, Novo-Kruglyakovke, Staroverovke, Zelenogo Gaya, and Yampol.). The destruction of STARLINK STATIONS is particularly noteworthy, as it could SEVERELY DISRUPT UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL. However, this report comes from a RUSSIAN SOURCE and should be treated with caution until independently verified. The claimed improvement in tactical position reinforces Russian advancement.

2. POTENTIAL DRONE ATTACK ON RYAZAN OIL REFINERY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (03:03 UTC) and Север.Реалии (03:06 UTC) report a potential drone attack on an oil refinery in Ryazan, Russia. Local sources report explosions and a fire. No official confirmation yet.
   • Assessment: This POTENTIALLY INDICATES A UKRAINIAN DEEP-STRIKE CAPABILITY, targeting RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and could lead to RETALIATORY STRIKES by Russia. This aligns with previous Ukrainian efforts to target Russian infrastructure. Requires IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.

3. RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM COMPLETION OF NOVOOCHERETUVATE "CLEANSING" (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (03:05 UTC) reports that Russian forces have completed the "cleansing" (meaning securing) of Novoocheretuvate, located on the border of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and the Zaporizhzhia region. The report cites Vladimir Rogov.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS of Russian advances in this area and indicates FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF RUSSIAN CONTROL in the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border region.

4. RUSSIAN BM-21 "GRAD" UNIT CLAIMS TO SHOOT DOWN 3 "BABA YAGA" DRONES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad (03:06:01 UTC) states that a Russian BM-21-1 "Grad" multiple rocket launcher crew shot down three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" type drones in the Pokrovsk direction.

   • **Assessment:** Indicates a *CONTINUED DRONE THREAT*, and that it can be neutralized by small arms.
     

5. RUSSIAN ESTIMATE OF UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• TASS (03:06 UTC) claims Ukrainian casualties since the beginning of the "special military operation" are approximately 1.08 million killed and wounded.
• Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN ESTIMATE and should be treated with EXTREME CAUTION. It is likely INFLATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES. Independent verification is impossible.

6. RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR RAPID DESTRUCTION OF COUNTERFEIT ALCOHOL (NO PRIORITY):

   • TASS (03:02) reports on the initiative.
   • Assessment: No military impact.

Updated Situation Summary

• SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTION TO UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS AND COMMUNICATIONS IN "ZAPAD" AREA CLAIMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces claim to have destroyed 19 UAV control points and three Starlink stations, a major potential blow, but requiring verification.
• POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE ON RUSSIAN OIL REFINERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of a drone attack on a Ryazan refinery, potentially signaling an escalation. Needs immediate confirmation.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CONSOLIDATE CONTROL IN DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA BORDER REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): "Cleansing" of Novoocheretuvate completed.
• CONTINUED DRONE THREAT, BABA YAGA DOWNED (HIGH PRIORITY): Three Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones reportedly shot down near Pokrovsk.
• RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE ADVANCED TACTICALLY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED).
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN UAV CONTROL POINT AND STARLINK STATION DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian communications and drone operations in the affected area.
   • If confirmed, implement immediate measures to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE, including deploying backup communication systems and relocating UAV control points.

2. CONFIRM AND ASSESS POTENTIAL RYAZAN OIL REFINERY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the reported attack, including the extent of the damage and the type of weapon used.
   • If confirmed, assess the impact on Russian fuel supplies and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RETALIATORY STRIKES.
   • Strengthen air defenses around critical infrastructure in Ukraine.

3. CONTINUE TO COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain defensive positions and PREPARE FOR FURTHER RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES in this area.
   • Deploy reserves as needed.
   • Utilize anti-tank weaponry and artillery to slow Russian advances.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain a high state of readiness for air defense systems across the country.
   • Continue efforts to develop and deploy counter-drone technologies.
   • Prioritize air defense deployments around critical infrastructure.
   • Disperse and conceal energy assets.
   • Develop contingency plans for fuel rationing and alternative supply routes.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous updates remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL LOSS OF UAV CONTROL POINTS AND STARLINK STATIONS in the "Zapad" area, coupled with the POSSIBLE UKRAINIAN DEEP STRIKE ON A RUSSIAN OIL REFINERY, represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF THESE EVENTS and RAPID RESPONSE are CRITICAL. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH remains a TOP CONCERN.