Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 00:00 UTC
Changes and New Information (23:30 UTC - 00:00 UTC)
KILLING OF UKRAINIAN NATIONALIST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (23:31 UTC) reports, with accompanying video, the killing of Ukrainian nationalist Andrey Nikolayevich Serganchuk (call sign "Festival"), a master of the 1st detachment of strike UAVs of the 2nd platoon of strike UAVs of the 1st company of strike UAVs of the UAV battalion of the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The killing reportedly occurred near Dzerzhinsk, conducted by operators of strike UAVs of the reconnaissance of the 132nd brigade of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces.
Assessment: This report HIGHLIGHTS THE INTENSE USE OF DRONES IN TARGETED KILLINGS. If confirmed, this represents a LOSS FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES, particularly given Serganchuk's reported experience and role in UAV operations. The identification of specific units involved (132nd Brigade, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army) provides VALUABLE INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN ORDER OF BATTLE. The video REQUIRES CAREFUL ANALYSIS to determine its authenticity and the circumstances of the event. TARGETING OF INDIVIDUALS IN CIVILIAN VEHICLES RAISES ETHICAL AND LEGAL CONCERNS, as previously mentioned.
РБК-Україна (23:34 UTC), quoting Friedrich Merz, reports that the US and Russia are converging over Ukraine's head, and therefore over Europe's head. Merz emphasized that the question of how quickly the Germans can form a government is a priority for him.
Assessment: These statements REINFORCE PREVIOUS CONCERNS about POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS that BYPASS UKRAINE'S INTERESTS. The focus on the German government formation SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN GERMAN POLICY depending on the outcome.
Seven drones moving from Kirovohrad Oblast to Mykolaiv Oblast, heading towards Bashtanka.
One drone circling near Brovary.
One drone from the north of Kyiv Oblast flying towards Korosten.
Assessment: This REFINES PREVIOUS REPORTS of drone activity, providing MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS AND TRAJECTORIES. The movement of drones towards BASHTANKA suggests a POTENTIAL TARGET in that area. The drone circling near BROVARYMAINTAINS THE HIGH THREAT LEVEL to that area, and the proximity to KYIV. The drone heading towards KOROSTEN suggests a WIDENING OF THE TARGET AREA.
GERMAN ELECTION UPDATE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (23:41 UTC) provides an update on the German elections after counting 43 million votes:
CDU/CSU: 28.5% (197 seats)
AfD: 20.9% (145 seats)
SPD: 16.4% (113 seats)
Greens: 11.4% (79 seats)
Left: 8.9% (62 seats)
Free Democrats: 4.2% (0 seats)
BSW: 5.000% (35 seats)
The passage of the "BSW" makes a coalition of two parties impossible, namely CDU/CSU + SPD (311 seats out of 315 needed). They now need a third party, the FDP is likely to fail.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE PREVIOUSLY REPORTED TREND of a STRONG SHOWING FOR THE CDU/CSU, but also HIGHLIGHTS THE DIFFICULTY in forming a stable coalition. The FAILURE OF THE FDP TO REACH THE THRESHOLD and the EMERGENCE OF THE BSW as a potential kingmaker COMPLICATE THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE.
ТАСС (23:55 UTC) reports that Netanyahu plans to strengthen ties with Germany under its new government. The Israeli Prime Minister congratulated CDU leader Friedrich Merz on his election victory.
Assessment: This SIGNALS A POTENTIAL ALIGNMENT OF INTERESTS between ISRAEL AND THE NEW GERMAN GOVERNMENT. The congratulatory message to Merz SUGGESTS AN EXPECTATION OF A CDU-LED GOVERNMENT.
Updated Situation Summary
MASSIVE, ONGOING DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone attack continues, with MULTIPLE WAVES of drones targeting a WIDE RANGE OF REGIONS, including KYIV, DNIPRO, ZHYTOMYR, CHERKASY, POLTAVA, CHERNIHIV, SUMY, KIROVOHRAD, MYKOLAIV, AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS. Refined reports indicate drones are MOVING TOWARDS BASHTANKA and KOROSTEN, while one drone is CIRCLING NEAR BROVARY. The SCALE OF THE ATTACK remains UNPRECEDENTED.
KYIV UNDER INTENSE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air defense systems are ACTIVELY ENGAGED in KYIV, but drones CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CAPITAL. EXPLOSIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. The areas around BROVARY and BORYSPIL are at IMMEDIATE RISK.
CONFIRMED CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN KRYVYI RIH AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): These events remain a HIGH PRIORITY, requiring ongoing response and support efforts.
DRONES ENTERING BELARUS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): This remains an UNUSUAL DEVELOPMENT requiring further investigation.
KILLING OF UKRAINIAN NATIONALIST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian sources claim the killing of a Ukrainian UAV specialist near Dzerzhinsk. This HIGHLIGHTS THE INTENSE USE OF DRONES IN TARGETED KILLINGS.
CONCERNS ABOUT US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Merz's statements reinforce concerns about potential negotiations that bypass Ukraine's interests.
GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): The CDU/CSU is leading, but forming a stable coalition will be challenging.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT AND ENGAGEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Continue to prioritize air defense efforts across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on KYIV, DNIPRO, ZHYTOMYR, BASHTANKA, AND KOROSTEN.
Coordinate air defense assets to MAXIMIZE INTERCEPTION RATES and MINIMIZE GAPS IN COVERAGE.
Issue continuous warnings to civilians in ALL THREATENED AREAS to REMAIN IN SHELTERS.
Prepare for potential saturation attacks designed to overwhelm air defenses.
Continue to urgently request additional air defense systems and munitions from international partners.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains valid.
ADDRESS CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN KRYVYI RIH AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): Remains valid.
INVESTIGATE REPORTED KILLING OF UKRAINIAN NATIONALIST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather all available intelligence on the reported killing of Andrey Serganchuk.
Verify the authenticity of the video and the circumstances of the event.
Assess the impact on Ukrainian UAV capabilities.
MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN GERMAN GOVERNMENT FORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Closely monitor the process of government formation in Germany.
Assess the potential implications of different coalition scenarios for German policy towards Ukraine.
Engage with potential coalition partners to ensure continued support for Ukraine.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The MASSIVE, ONGOING DRONE ATTACK poses a SEVERE THREAT to CIVILIAN LIVES, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, AND MILITARY ASSETS across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. KYIV is under INTENSE ATTACK, and the POTENTIAL FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS TO BE OVERWHELMED remains a MAJOR CONCERN. IMMEDIATE, COORDINATED, AND SUSTAINED ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE THREAT and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER ESCALATION. The SHEER SCALE of this attack DEMANDS A RAPID AND DECISIVE RESPONSE.
