Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 23:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (23:00 UTC - 23:30 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN DRONE CARRIER TECHNOLOGY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (23:02 UTC) reports, with accompanying video, on the "Admiral" drone carrier, capable of deploying two "Boets-7" FPV drones. The "Admiral" acts as a signal repeater, extending the range of the FPV drones. Claims of successful combat trials.
   • Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT in RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITIES. If deployed effectively, the "Admiral" system could INCREASE THE RANGE, PERSISTENCE, AND LETHALITY of Russian FPV drone attacks. This poses a NEW THREAT to Ukrainian forces, requiring ADAPTATION OF COUNTER-DRONE TACTICS AND TECHNOLOGIES. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT.

2. CONFIRMED DRONE STRIKE IN BROVARY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (23:29 UTC) reports, with video, a Shahed drone striking an unfinished multi-story building in Brovary. Debris hit the 23rd and 11th floors, causing fires. One reported casualty, a security guard. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (23:29 UTC) also reports a drone approaching Brovary from the north.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE DRONE ATTACK ON BROVARY, previously reported. The strike on an unfinished building MINIMIZES CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, but DEMONSTRATES RUSSIAN WILLINGNESS TO TARGET AREAS NEAR KYIV. The ongoing drone attack is CONFIRMED. The single casualty REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but the report is CREDIBLE.

3. DRONE DEBRIS IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (23:05 UTC) showed a picture of what they claim is drone debris in Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the Russian drone attack has reached Kyiv.

4. UKRAINE-US MINERAL RIGHTS AGREEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY):

*   *Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны* (23:27 UTC) reports, with a screenshot of *The Economist*, that Ukraine may be required to compensate the US for aid for hundreds of years if it signs an agreement with Trump regarding mineral resources. The Economist sources claim it's an offer that Ukraine can't refuse.

* **Assessment:** This confirms the earlier impression.

5. HISTORICAL ACCOUNTS (LOW PRIORITY, PROPAGANDA):

*  *Alex Parker Returns* (23:08 UTC) posted several screenshots of Telegram messages from the start of the war (February 24, 2022), many claiming the destruction of the Ukrainian Air Force, Navy, and widespread surrender. Other screenshots aim to accuse Ukraine of starting the war, and of Russia's intentions of a quick victory with few civilian casualties. *Оперативний ЗСУ* (23:11 UTC) posted a sarcastic image referencing the initial Russian claim that Kyiv would be taken in three days.

• Assessment: These posts offer NO NEW TACTICAL INFORMATION, but highlight the PERVASIVENESS OF RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA from the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The claims of quick victory and minimal civilian casualties were CLEARLY FALSE. This highlights the IMPORTANCE OF DISCERNING FACT FROM FICTION in the information war. The "Kyiv in three days" image is a DIRECT COUNTER-PROPAGANDA EFFORT.

Updated Situation Summary

• ONGOING WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat persists, with CONFIRMED STRIKES IN BROVARY and DRONE DEBRIS IN KYIV. KREMENCHUK REMAINS A PRIMARY TARGET. The IMMINENT THREAT TO KYIV is HIGH.
• RUSSIAN DRONE CARRIER TECHNOLOGY POSES NEW THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The "Admiral" system, if deployed effectively, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES the RANGE AND LETHALITY of Russian FPV drone attacks.
• RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claims of a successful strike in the POKROVSK direction.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):
  • The potential Russian declaration of victory tomorrow.
  • The US resolution not blaming Russia.
  • The potential shift in German politics.
  • The integration of Swedish air defense systems.
  • Continued Ukrainian drone warfare success.
  • Confirmed drone debris in Kyiv.
  • Intense fighting across multiple fronts.
  • Ukrainian forces continue to destroy Russian equipment.
  • Diplomatic activity and "Istanbul agreement" discussion.
  • Information warfare continues.
  • Increasing German-US tensions.
• Confirmation of US-Ukraine agreement.
• Italian military aid.
• Russian advances.
• New Zealand sanctions.
• RUSSIAN-US NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, PRIORITIZE KREMENCHUK, KYIV, AND BROVARY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for air defense systems across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS ON KREMENCHUK, KYIV, AND BROVARY.
   • Deploy all available air defense assets.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
   • Issue continuous warnings to civilians, urging them to TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY during air raid alerts.

2. MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY AND ADJUST DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continuously track drone movements using all available radar and surveillance systems.
   • Adjust air defense deployments dynamically to respond to evolving threats.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts between different units and regions.

3. DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES TO RUSSIAN DRONE CARRIER TECHNOLOGY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently assess the operational capabilities of the "Admiral" system.
   • Develop and deploy countermeasures, including ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS capable of DISRUPTING DRONE COMMUNICATIONS AND CONTROL.
   • Adapt air defense tactics to account for the INCREASED RANGE AND PERSISTENCE of FPV drones launched from drone carriers.
   • Prioritize the development and deployment of COUNTER-DRONE TECHNOLOGIES capable of NEUTRALIZING both the drone carrier and its FPV drones.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):

   • All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS continue to pose a MAJOR THREAT, with CONFIRMED STRIKES in Brovary and Kyiv. The EMERGENCE OF RUSSIAN DRONE CARRIER TECHNOLOGY represents a SIGNIFICANT NEW THREAT requiring IMMEDIATE AND ADAPTIVE COUNTERMEASURES. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, AND COORDINATED AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with updated priorities.