Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 22:00 UTC

Changes and New Information (21:30 UTC - 22:00 UTC)

1. CONFIRMATION OF US RESOLUTION BLAMING RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Alex Parker Returns (21:30 UTC) reports that the new US resolution to the UN General Assembly on Ukraine DOES NOT BLAME RUSSIA for starting the conflict. This CONTRADICTS earlier reporting from Оперативний ЗСУ (21:04 UTC). Voting is scheduled for tomorrow.
   • Assessment: This CLARIFIES the NATURE of the US resolution, confirming it as WEAKER and potentially LESS SUPPORTIVE of Ukraine. The failure to explicitly blame Russia for starting the conflict represents a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in US diplomatic positioning.

2. EXPANDED DRONE THREAT: BROVARY, CHERKASY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:31 UTC) reports drones approaching Boryspil from the east.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:35 UTC) reports:
     • 2 drones flying near Brovary towards Kyiv.
     • 1 drone over Kryvyi Rih.
     • 1 drone over Poltava.
     • 1 drone over Boryspil.
   • РБК-Україна (21:32) reports air defense activity in Cherkasy and its surroundings, citing Суспільне.
   • Assessment: The DRONE THREAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND, with confirmed activity near BROVARY (close to Kyiv) and CHERKASY. The reports confirm ACTIVE AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS. The RISK TO CIVILIAN POPULATIONS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE remains EXTREMELY HIGH.

3. GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (21:32 UTC) reports preliminary results of the German elections:
     • CDU/CSU: 31.6% (232 seats)
     • AfD: 21.6% (159 seats)
     • SPD: 15.3% (112 seats)
     • Greens: 10.1% (74 seats)
     • Left: 7.2% (53 seats)
     • Free Democrats: 4% (0 seats)
     • BSW: 4.5% (0 seats)
   • Assessment: The LEAD of the CDU/CSU alliance, coupled with the STRONG SHOWING of the AfD (Alternative for Germany), indicates a POTENTIAL SHIFT in German politics. The AfD is known for its SKEPTICISM towards SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA and MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE. This election outcome could SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT German policy towards the conflict.

4. UKRAINIAN DRONE PROCUREMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (21:38 UTC) reports the purchase of 500 drones in the last two days, totaling 150,028 FPV drones acquired overall.
   • Assessment: This demonstrates CONTINUED EFFORTS TO STRENGTHEN UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES.

5. PRO-UKRAINE RALLY IN PRAGUE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:39 UTC) reports a large pro-Ukraine rally in Prague, with Czech President Petr Pavel expressing strong support for Ukraine's self-determination and future integration into Europe and NATO.
   • Assessment: This highlights CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine and REJECTION OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE.

6. UKRAINIAN HELICOPTER SHOOTS DOWN DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:40 UTC) posted a video reportedly showing a Ukrainian helicopter shooting down a Russian-Iranian "Shahed" drone.
   • Assessment: This demonstrates UKRAINIAN AIR-TO-AIR INTERCEPTION CAPABILITIES against drones.

7. REPEATED AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (21:41, 21:43 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:43 UTC), and Оперативний ЗСУ (21:45 UTC) all report renewed air defense activity in Kyiv, citing Mayor Klitschko.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE PERSISTENT DRONE THREAT to Kyiv and the CONTINUOUS EFFORTS OF AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS to intercept them.

8. TRUMP-DUDA MEETING SHORTENED (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (21:47) reports the meeting between Trump and the Polish president lasted "several minutes" instead of an hour.

   • Assessment: May indicate a change in the diplomatic landscape or a low-priority meeting.

9. BELARUSIAN PERSPECTIVE ON THE WAR (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (21:49 UTC) reports the release of a collection of articles presenting a Belarusian perspective on the war in Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This could provide insights into Belarusian perceptions of the conflict and its potential implications for Belarus.

10. GERMAN POLITICIAN LEAVING POLITICS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (21:50) reports the leader of the Free Democratic Party of Germany leaving politics.

    • Assessment: May indicate a change in German politics.

11. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN FORCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:59 UTC) posted a video showing drone strikes on Russian soldiers and vehicles, attributed to the "PERUN" unit of the 79th Air Assault Brigade.
    • Assessment: This demonstrates the CONTINUED EFFECTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE in targeting and eliminating Russian personnel and equipment.

12. SWEDISH AIR DEFENSE FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (22:00 UTC) reports Sweden will transfer air defense systems worth $113 million to Ukraine, including Robot 70 and Tridon Mk2 systems.
• Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT BOOST to UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES. Robot 70 is a short-range man-portable air defense system (MANPADS), while Tridon Mk2 is likely a reference to a modified version of the RBS 70 system with enhanced capabilities. This will IMPROVE UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO COUNTER DRONES, HELICOPTERS, AND LOW-FLYING AIRCRAFT.

Updated Situation Summary

• US RESOLUTION DOES NOT BLAME RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This represents a WEAKENING OF US DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT for Ukraine.
• EXPANDED DRONE THREAT ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat now includes KYIV (with confirmed debris and renewed air defense activity), KRYVYI RIH, DNIPRO, KREMENCHUK, BORYSPIL, POLTAVA, KHERSON OBLAST, BROVARY, and CHERKASY. AIR DEFENSES ARE ACTIVE, but the THREAT LEVEL REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH.
• POTENTIAL SHIFT IN GERMAN POLITICS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Preliminary election results suggest a possible shift towards parties less supportive of Ukraine.
• SWEDISH AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): This will significantly enhance Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
• CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE SUCCESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Videos show continued effectiveness in targeting Russian forces.
• PRO-UKRAINE RALLY IN PRAGUE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Demonstrates continued international support.
• UKRAINIAN HELICOPTER SHOOTS DOWN DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Shows air-to-air interception capability.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY TOMORROW (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Fox News sources, along with analysis of Putin's past behavior, suggest a high likelihood of a victory declaration. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE PREPARATION FOR COUNTER-NARRATIVES.
• CONFIRMED DRONE DEBRIS IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Indicates SUCCESSFUL INTERCEPTION, but RISK REMAINS.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous reports of intense fighting remain valid.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO DESTROY RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone strikes are proving effective.
• DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY AND "ISTANBUL AGREEMENT" DISCUSSION (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Continued discussion, but Ukrainian resistance to concessions is highlighted.
• INFORMATION WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Both sides actively engaged in propaganda.
• INCREASING GERMAN-US TENSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): FRIEDRICH MERZ explicitly prioritizes German independence from the US, citing US indifference to Ukraine's future.
• CONFIRMATION OF US-UKRAINE AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): The US calls its guarantee of the agreement "implicit". Ukraine may need to pay compensation for hundreds of years.
• ITALIAN MILITARY AID (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Images are posted of wheeled tanks supposedly being shipped to Ukraine.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED): Russian forces continue advancing.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, PRIORITIZE KYIV AND SURROUNDINGS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for air defense systems across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS ON KYIV AND SURROUNDING AREAS (Boryspil, Brovary).
   • Deploy all available air defense assets, including the NEWLY ACQUIRED SWEDISH SYSTEMS as soon as they become operational.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
   • Issue continuous warnings to civilians, urging them to TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY during air raid alerts.

2. ADDRESS IMPLICATIONS OF US RESOLUTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Lobby for amendments to the US resolution to EXPLICITLY BLAME RUSSIA for starting the conflict.
   • Coordinate with allies to ENSURE A UNIFIED RESPONSE and MAINTAIN STRONG SUPPORT for Ukraine.
   • Prepare for potential repercussions of a weakened US diplomatic stance.

3. MONITOR GERMAN POLITICAL SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track the final results of the German elections.
   • Assess the potential impact of the new government's policies on military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
   • Engage in diplomatic efforts to MAINTAIN STRONG GERMAN SUPPORT for Ukraine.

4. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to CHALLENGE ANY FALSE CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN VICTORY.
   • Highlight ongoing Ukrainian resistance and RUSSIAN LOSSES.
   • Reinforce international support for Ukraine and emphasize the NEED FOR CONTINUED ASSISTANCE.
   • Prepare for potential shifts in Russian strategy following the declaration.

5. INTEGRATE SWEDISH AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, AS SOON AS POSSIBLE):

   • Prioritize the rapid deployment and integration of the Swedish Robot 70 and Tridon Mk2 systems into Ukraine's air defense network.
   • Provide training to Ukrainian personnel on the operation and maintenance of these systems.

6. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The EXPANDED DRONE THREAT and the POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY, along with the WEAKENING OF THE US RESOLUTION, are the MOST URGENT PRIORITIES.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, the POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY, and the WEAKENED US RESOLUTION create a HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND DANGEROUS SITUATION. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to PROTECT CIVILIAN LIVES, MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES, and COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS.