Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 21:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (21:00 UTC - 21:30 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED DRONE DEBRIS IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (21:12 UTC) and РБК-Україна (21:14 UTC) report drone debris fell in the Desnianskyi district of Kyiv on open ground. Emergency services are en route. The extent of damage and potential casualties are being clarified. Оперативний ЗСУ (21:15) confirms.
   • Assessment: This confirms SUCCESSFUL INTERCEPTION of at least one drone targeting Kyiv, but HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING THREAT. The falling debris poses a RISK OF DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES, even if the drone itself was destroyed.

2. EXPANDED DRONE THREAT: KRYVYI RIH, DNIPRO, KHERSON OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:10 UTC) reports:
     • 3 drones approaching Kryvyi Rih.
     • 2 drones near Kremenchuk.
     • 2 drones approaching Boryspil.
     • 2 drones circling near Poltava.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:13 UTC) reports drones approaching Kryvyi Rih from the north.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:18 UTC) reports a drone moving northwest of Dnipro, heading towards the city.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:22) reports a drone threat to Kherson Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR EXPANSION of the drone threat, now encompassing MULTIPLE CITIES AND REGIONS. The RISK TO CIVILIAN POPULATIONS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE is EXTREMELY HIGH. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS MUST BE ON MAXIMUM ALERT across ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

3. POTENTIAL US RESOLUTION AT UN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (21:04 UTC) reports the US may propose a "neutral" resolution on Ukraine to the UN Security Council, with a possible vote at 18:00 UTC on February 24th. The text was reportedly shared with Security Council members on February 21st. ТАСС (21:13) confirms the vote.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:04) states that tomorrow, the UN General Assembly will consider two resolutions, a collective one involving Ukraine and one from the US. The collective text refers to Russia as an aggressor and requires that its forces be withdrawn. The US text doesn't name Russia as an aggressor, and requires immediate end of conflict. Russia proposed an amendment to the US text, calling for removal of the origins of the conflict.
   • Assessment: This suggests POSSIBLE DIPLOMATIC MOVEMENT, but the "neutral" nature of the US resolution is CONCERNING. It may indicate a WEAKENING OF US SUPPORT for Ukraine and a desire to appease Russia. CLOSE MONITORING of the resolution's content and the voting outcome is ESSENTIAL. The difference between the two texts is SIGNIFICANT.

4. POTENTIAL PUTIN DECLARATION OF VICTORY TOMORROW (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN/US SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:06), citing Fox News, reports Putin may declare victory in the war with Ukraine tomorrow.
   • Alex Parker Returns (21:16) highlights Putin's past declarations of victory, including in Syria in 2017, casting doubt on the significance of any such announcement.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS and increases the LIKELIHOOD of a MAJOR RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA PUSH. It is CRITICAL to PREPARE COUNTER-NARRATIVES and REINFORCE INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine. INVESTIGATION into the TRUE INTENTIONS behind this potential declaration remains PARAMOUNT.

5. UKRAINIAN COMPENSATION TO US (REPORTED):

   • ТАСС (21:26) reports that Ukraine will be required to pay a compensation to the US for hundreds of years if Trump's plan goes through.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of the agreement.

6. UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:22) posted a video of FPV drones used by the 3rd Assault Brigade destroying abandoned armor and a truck.
   • Assessment: This demonstrates UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES.

7. MERZ PRIORITIZES GERMAN INDEPENDENCE FROM US (CONFIRMED):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:28) reiterates that Merz prioritizes independence from the US.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXPANDED DRONE THREAT ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone threat now includes KYIV (with confirmed debris), KRYVYI RIH, DNIPRO, KREMENCHUK, BORYSPIL, POLTAVA, and KHERSON OBLAST. AIR DEFENSES ARE ACTIVE, but the THREAT LEVEL REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH.
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY TOMORROW (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Fox News sources, along with analysis of Putin's past behavior, suggest a high likelihood of a victory declaration. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE PREPARATION FOR COUNTER-NARRATIVES.
• POTENTIAL US "NEUTRAL" RESOLUTION AT UN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): This could signal a WEAKENING OF US SUPPORT for Ukraine. CLOSE MONITORING is needed.
• CONFIRMED DRONE DEBRIS IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Indicates SUCCESSFUL INTERCEPTION, but RISK REMAINS.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous reports of intense fighting remain valid.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO DESTROY RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone strikes are proving effective.
• DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY AND "ISTANBUL AGREEMENT" DISCUSSION (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Continued discussion, but Ukrainian resistance to concessions is highlighted.
• INFORMATION WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Both sides actively engaged in propaganda.
• INCREASING GERMAN-US TENSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): FRIEDRICH MERZ explicitly prioritizes German independence from the US, citing US indifference to Ukraine's future.
• CONFIRMATION OF US-UKRAINE AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): The US calls its guarantee of the agreement "implicit". Ukraine may need to pay compensation for hundreds of years.
• SWEDISH AIR DEFENSE FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Sweden purchased air defense systems for 112 million USD for Ukraine.
• ITALIAN MILITARY AID (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Images are posted of wheeled tanks supposedly being shipped to Ukraine.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED): Russian forces continue advancing.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT, PRIORITIZE EXPANDED THREAT AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for air defenses across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, including KYIV, KRYVYI RIH, DNIPRO, KREMENCHUK, BORYSPIL, POLTAVA, and KHERSON OBLAST.
   • Deploy all available air defense assets to INTERCEPT INCOMING DRONES.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
   • Issue continuous warnings to civilians in ALL AFFECTED AREAS, urging them to TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

2. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to CHALLENGE ANY FALSE CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN VICTORY.
   • Highlight ongoing Ukrainian resistance and RUSSIAN LOSSES.
   • Reinforce international support for Ukraine and emphasize the NEED FOR CONTINUED ASSISTANCE.
   • Prepare for potential shifts in Russian strategy following the declaration, including:
     • Possible attempts to freeze the conflict along current lines.
     • Increased diplomatic pressure for negotiations on unfavorable terms.
     • Changes in military tactics or objectives.

3. MONITOR US "NEUTRAL" RESOLUTION AT UN (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Obtain the full text of the proposed US resolution.
   • Analyze its implications for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Lobby for amendments to STRENGTHEN THE RESOLUTION and HOLD RUSSIA ACCOUNTABLE.
   • Coordinate with allies to ENSURE A UNIFIED RESPONSE.

4. INVESTIGATE KYIV DRONE DEBRIS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the damage caused by the falling drone debris in the Desnianskyi district.
   • Determine if there were any casualties.
   • Analyze the drone fragments to IDENTIFY ITS TYPE AND ORIGIN.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The EXPANDED DRONE THREAT and the POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY are the MOST URGENT PRIORITIES.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS pose an IMMEDIATE AND SEVERE THREAT across MULTIPLE REGIONS. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DECLARATION OF VICTORY adds a MAJOR LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY and RISK. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to PROTECT CIVILIAN LIVES, MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES, and COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA.