Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 12:57 UTC

Changes and New Information (12:28 UTC - 12:57 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (MoD) REPORT ON KURSK OBLAST OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (12:28 UTC) reports ongoing operations to "neutralize AFU formations" in Kursk Oblast. Claims the "Sever" Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on multiple Ukrainian units (tank, heavy-mechanized, mechanized, air assault, marine, territorial defense brigades, and assault regiments) near various settlements. Reports repelling three Ukrainian counterattacks. Claims to have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in both Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. Reports significant Ukrainian losses in the past 24 hours (over 190 troops, 3 tanks, 6 IFVs, 4 APCs, 15 AFVs, 17 motor vehicles, 1 artillery gun, 3 mortars, 2 EW stations, 3 UAV control posts, and an ammunition depot). Provides cumulative loss figures for Ukrainian forces in the "Kursk direction" since the beginning of hostilities.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS AND EXPANDS on previous reports of fighting in KURSK OBLAST. The level of detail provided by the Russian MoD is UNUSUALLY HIGH and SPECIFIC, suggesting a DELIBERATE EFFORT TO PROJECT STRENGTH AND SUCCESS. The reported scale of Ukrainian losses, if accurate, would be DEVASTATING. However, INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS REQUIRED due to the source. The report's mention of operations impacting locations in SUMY OBLAST suggests a BROADER SCOPE to the fighting. The claimed destruction of UAV CONTROL POSTS is SIGNIFICANT given the importance of drone warfare. The cumulative loss figures are HIGHLY LIKELY INFLATED for propaganda purposes, but still suggest a HIGH-INTENSITY CONFLICT in this area.

2. AIR RAID ALERTS IN DNIPROPETROVSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:29 UTC) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (12:29 UTC) issued missile alerts.

• Assessment: Air raid alerts in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have since ended.

3. REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA, DONETSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (12:29 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (12:43 UTC) report another Russian strike on Kostyantynivka. Claims of multiple airstrikes earlier in the morning, with at least 2 dead and 4 wounded. Reports indicate ongoing search and rescue operations, with potential for more casualties under the rubble. Reports state 66 civilian objects were damaged, including residential buildings, industrial objects, shops, parking lots, garages, vehicles, power lines, and gas pipelines.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in KOSTYANTYNIVKA. The reported use of multiple airstrikes and the high number of damaged civilian objects suggest a DELIBERATE EFFORT TO INFLICT MAXIMUM DAMAGE. The ongoing search and rescue operations indicate the potential for a HIGHER CASUALTY COUNT. This situation requires IMMEDIATE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE and DOCUMENTATION FOR POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONS.

4. REPORTED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF NOVOLIUBOVKA, LUHANSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (12:39 UTC) independently reports that Russian forces control Novoliubovka, located on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS THE PREVIOUS REPORT by Два майора (12:26) of the Russian capture of NOVOLIUBOVKA. This strengthens the assessment of a RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the LUHANSK REGION.

5. REPORTED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT POINTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Воин DV (12:40 UTC) reports that soldiers of the 200th Guards Artillery Brigade have worked on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South-Donetsk direction.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this suggests a CONTINUED FOCUS ON TARGETING UKRAINIAN FORCES in the SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION.

6. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN CHERKASSKAYA KONOPELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Сливочный каприз (12:40 UTC) reports active combat near Sudzha. Reports that Russian forces attacked a village, advancing up to 1 km.
   • Assessment: This strengthens the assessment of continued Russian activities in the region.

7. UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT BANS TROOP DEPLOYMENTS TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (12:40 UTC) reports that the Bulgarian Parliament has banned the deployment of troops to Ukraine, calling for peaceful negotiations.
   • Assessment: This limits the potential for direct military assistance from Bulgaria, impacting potential coalition-building efforts.

8. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS DRONE ACTIVITY IN KHARKIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:42 UTC) reports drone activity in the Kharkiv region, and (12:43 UTC) guided bomb activity.
   • Assessment: The Air Force reports indicate continued danger and potential for strike in the region.

9. UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT TO NEGOTIATE OVER MINERALS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (12:41 UTC) reports that the Verkhovna Rada will negotiate over minerals. * Assessment: This may indicate a potential breakthrough in the US-Ukraine crisis over mineral rights, but it does not mean that the deal is pro-Ukraine.

10. RUSSIAN SOLDIERS APPEAL FOR HELP, CITING MISTREATMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (12:45 UTC) reports that a group of wounded Russian soldiers claim they are being sent to the front lines near Nikolske despite their injuries and illnesses. They claim to be from the 150th Motorized Rifle Regiment and were moved to Kursk Oblast under false pretenses. They allege their requests for medical attention and legal assistance are being ignored.
    • Assessment: IF ACCURATE, this report suggests SERIOUS MORALE AND DISCIPLINE PROBLEMS within the RUSSIAN MILITARY. The alleged mistreatment of wounded soldiers and the denial of medical care could UNDERMINE COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS and FUEL INTERNAL DISSENT. This requires FURTHER INVESTIGATION to confirm the claims, but if true, it represents a SIGNIFICANT VULNERABILITY for the Russian military.

11. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN TANK NEAR TOKMAK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    *    *БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС* (12:46 UTC) reports a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Russian tank near Tokmak, more than 20km from the front.
    *  **Assessment:** This claim *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*. If confirmed, this attack is *SIGNIFICANT* as *TOKMAK IS A KEY LOGISTICAL HUB*. The ability of Ukrainian forces to strike targets so far behind Russian lines would indicate *IMPROVED DRONE CAPABILITIES* and *POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES* in Russian defenses.
    

12. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS NEAR SELIDOVE AND POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (12:46 UTC) shows a video of Ukrainian drone operations, claiming to have destroyed Russian equipment and personnel.
    • Assessment: This further shows continued Ukrainian reliance on drone technology.

13. REPORTED UKRAINIAN EXPECTATION FOR F-16 FIGHTERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (12:44 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:52 UTC) report President Zelenskyy expects the arrival of F-16 fighters this year.

• Assessment: This is critical for Ukraine, as it suggests a future capability that would greatly improve air defence.

14. REPORTED RUSSIAN DEVELOPMENT OF A MYSTERIOUS NEW ROCKET (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:51 UTC) states that Russian military forces have started to use an unknown type of new ground-to-ground guided missile, capable of striking targets beyond the visible range.
      • Assessment: This, if true, may represent a new threat, however, the specific features of the weapon system are unknown.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS IN KURSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Russian MoD report provides DETAILED CLAIMS of significant Ukrainian losses and ongoing operations in KURSK OBLAST, extending into SUMY OBLAST. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS CRITICAL, but the level of detail suggests a MAJOR RUSSIAN EFFORT in this area.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS IN KOSTYANTYNIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports confirm MULTIPLE AIRSTRIKES targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, resulting in casualties and widespread damage. This represents a MAJOR HUMANITARIAN CONCERN and potential WAR CRIME.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN LUHANSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The capture of NOVOLIUBOVKA is now CONFIRMED by multiple sources, indicating a RUSSIAN ADVANCE in this area.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of drone activity in KHARKIV OBLAST and claimed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets (tank near Tokmak, ambulance near Zaporizhzhia) highlight the ONGOING AND INTENSE USE OF DRONES by both sides.
• POTENTIAL MORALE AND DISCIPLINE PROBLEMS WITHIN RUSSIAN MILITARY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The report of wounded Russian soldiers being sent to the front lines against their will, if true, suggests SERIOUS ISSUES within the RUSSIAN MILITARY.
• UKRAINE ANTICIPATES F-16 DELIVERIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): President Zelenskyy's statement indicates a continued focus on strengthening Ukrainian air capabilities.
• US-UKRAINE RELATIONS IN CRISIS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The situation regarding the MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL and STARLINK ACCESS remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL THREAT, with POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukrainian military operations. Although the Ukrainian Parliament may be entering negotiations, this is no guarantee of a pro-Ukrainian outcome.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS REGARDING KURSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian MoD's claims regarding the scale of Ukrainian losses and the extent of Russian operations in KURSK AND SUMY OBLASTS. This includes satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signal intelligence, and human intelligence reports.
   • Assess the impact of confirmed Russian advances on Ukrainian defensive positions and PREPARE FOR COUNTERATTACKS where feasible.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses along the border with Russia, prioritizing areas under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
   • Prepare for potential flanking maneuvers and ENCIRCLEMENT ATTEMPTS by Russian forces.
   • URGENTLY DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL RUSSIAN INCURSION into SUMY OBLAST.

2. PROVIDE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AND DOCUMENT POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES IN KOSTYANTYNIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately dispatch rescue teams and medical personnel to KOSTYANTYNIVKA to assist with search and rescue operations and provide medical care to the injured.
   • Document the damage to civilian infrastructure and COLLECT EVIDENCE of potential war crimes.
   • Coordinate with international organizations to provide humanitarian assistance to the affected population.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain high alert status for air defense systems across all affected regions, particularly in areas experiencing increased drone activity (KHARKIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS).
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations from drone attacks.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets if available, focusing on countering drones and guided bombs.
   • Urgently seek methods to protect medical infrastructure, including ambulances.

4. INVESTIGATE REPORTED MISTREATMENT OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the reported mistreatment of wounded Russian soldiers, attempting to VERIFY THE CLAIMS made in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС report.
   • If the claims are confirmed, assess the potential impact on Russian military morale and combat effectiveness.
   • Consider using this information for PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS targeting Russian forces.

5. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE NEAR TOKMAK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the reported Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian tank near Tokmak.
   • If confirmed, assess the implications for Russian logistics and security in the area.

6. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE CRISIS AND SECURE STARLINK ACCESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC AND TECHNICAL ACTION): All previous recommendations regarding Starlink remain in effect. This is the TOP PRIORITY.

7. MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW RUSSIAN ROCKET (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence regarding the rocket capabilities.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in KURSK AND SUMY OBLASTS represent a MAJOR ESCALATION and a SIGNIFICANT THREAT. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in KOSTYANTYNIVKA, the ONGOING DRONE WARFARE, and the POTENTIAL MORALE PROBLEMS within the RUSSIAN MILITARY add further COMPLEXITY AND URGENCY. The US-UKRAINE CRISIS over STARLINK ACCESS and the MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL THREAT, with POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukrainian military operations. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL.