Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 12:27 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:58 UTC - 12:27 UTC)

1. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE AND CAPTURE OF BURLATSKOE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (11:58 UTC) reports that Russian assault units of the 60th Brigade breached Ukrainian defenses and entered Burlatskoe. Claims positions northwest of Velyka Novosilka have been captured. States both banks of the Mokri Yaly River up to Dniproenergiya are under the control of the "Vostok" Group of Forces. Asserts rapid developments following the capture of Velyka Novosilka, with a goal of linking up with forces near Komar. Notes the "Center" Group of Forces is also operating towards Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAIN and a MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH in the NOVOPAVLOVSKE DIRECTION. The claim of controlling both banks of the Mokri Yaly River up to Dniproenergiya is STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT, as it secures a KEY WATERWAY and POTENTIAL SUPPLY ROUTE. The reported goal of linking up near Komar suggests a POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of Ukrainian forces. This is a RAPIDLY EVOLVING SITUATION requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.

2. DRONE THREAT IN ZVENYHORODKA, CHERKASY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:01 UTC) reports an enemy attack drone approaching Zvenyhorodka from the southeast.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS THE CONTINUED DRONE THREAT and its SPREAD TO CENTRAL UKRAINE. The specific targeting of Zvenyhorodka is NEW and requires IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE READINESS.

3. UKRAINIAN DEVELOPMENT OF ANTI-DRONE SYSTEMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (12:01 UTC) reports on Ukrainian efforts to develop systems to protect against naval drones, citing Brigadier General Ivan Lukashevich of the SBU. Claims Ukraine is developing specialized surface drones for patrol, search, and destruction of threats, equipped with integrated weapons. Mentions a model used against Russian helicopters, equipped with a 14.5mm KPVT machine gun and a surface search radar. Also mentions the "Sea Baby" drone carrying Italian MN103 Manta mines (130 kg of explosives) for mining operations, previously used in Sevastopol Bay. Predicts the first naval drone battles in world history in the Black Sea.
   • Assessment: This report HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINIAN ADAPTATION to the evolving threat landscape. The development of anti-drone systems, particularly naval drones, is SIGNIFICANT and could ALTER THE BALANCE OF POWER in the BLACK SEA. The reported capabilities, including long-range (1700 km) operation and the ability to carry mines, represent a SERIOUS THREAT to Russian naval assets. The prediction of naval drone battles is PLAUSIBLE and represents a NEW DIMENSION of the conflict.

4. RUSSIAN COUNTERATTACKS REPELLED IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (12:07 UTC) reports that Russian forces in Kursk Oblast repelled three Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours, with Ukrainian losses exceeding 190 personnel.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS ongoing fighting in KURSK OBLAST, indicating a CONTINUED UKRAINIAN EFFORT to PRESSURE RUSSIAN BORDER REGIONS. The reported high Ukrainian casualties, if accurate, suggest a COSTLY AND UNSUCCESSFUL operation.

5. KYIV OBLAST AIR ALERT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:19, 12:22) and Оперативний ЗСУ (12:21).
• Assessment: Possible PPO action against enemy drones.

6. NEW FIRE AT CHERNOBYL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:23 UTC) reports a new fire at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located on the arch cladding. Liquidation efforts are underway.
  • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The cause and extent of the fire are UNKNOWN. Any incident at Chernobyl is HIGHLY SENSITIVE due to the POTENTIAL FOR RADIOLOGICAL CONTAMINATION. This requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION and CLOSE MONITORING.

7. GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES IN SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

• *Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine* (12:09)
  

• Assessment: The launches require IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE READINESS.

8. RUSSIAN FORCES TAKE NOVOLIUBOVKA, LUGANSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Два майора (12:26) reports that Russian forces captured the town.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN NOVOPAVLOVSKE DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of the capture of Burlatskoe and advances along the Mokri Yaly River, if confirmed, represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAIN and a POTENTIAL TURNING POINT in the SOUTHERN THEATER. The reported goal of encirclement near Komar is HIGHLY CONCERNING.
• CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone activity is now reported in CHERKASY OBLAST, including the specific targeting of ZVENYHORODKA, indicating a WIDENING THREAT across CENTRAL UKRAINE.
• UKRAINIAN DEVELOPMENT OF ANTI-NAVAL DRONE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports indicate Ukraine is actively developing countermeasures to Russian naval drones, potentially ALTERING THE BALANCE OF POWER in the BLACK SEA.
• FIGHTING CONTINUES IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces claim to have repelled Ukrainian counterattacks, indicating CONTINUED PRESSURE on RUSSIAN BORDER REGIONS.
• POTENTIAL NEW FIRE AT CHERNOBYL (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of a fire at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant require IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION due to the POTENTIAL FOR RADIOLOGICAL CONTAMINATION.
• US-UKRAINE RELATIONS IN CRISIS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The US is using STARLINK ACCESS as leverage to pressure Ukraine into a MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL. Ukraine is resisting, creating a MAJOR RIFT with potentially CATASTROPHIC consequences for Ukrainian military operations. This remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL THREAT.
• RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP FOCUS ON SOUTHERN FRONT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Gerasimov's visit to the "Yug" Group of Forces command post signals INTENSE FOCUS on the SOUTHERN THEATER, potentially indicating IMMINENT OPERATIONS.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND REINFORCE DEFENSES IN NOVOPAVLOVSKE DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported capture of BURLATSKOE and the extent of Russian advances along the MOKRI YALY RIVER. This includes satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signal intelligence, and human intelligence reports.
   • Immediately assess the impact of confirmed Russian gains on Ukrainian defensive positions and PREPARE FOR COUNTER-ATTACKS where feasible.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the NOVOPAVLOVSKE DIRECTION, prioritizing areas under IMMEDIATE THREAT and KEY STRATEGIC LOCATIONS.
   • Prepare for potential encirclement or flanking maneuvers by Russian forces, particularly near KOMAR.
   • URGENTLY DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH in this sector.
   • Establish clear lines of communication with local authorities and civilian populations to facilitate evacuation and provide assistance.

2. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain high alert status for air defense systems in CHERKASY, KIYV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND SUMY OBLASTS.
   • Continue to monitor drone and missile activity.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
   • Issue timely warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER when drone activity is detected, particularly in ZVENYHORODKA.

3. INVESTIGATE REPORTED FIRE AT CHERNOBYL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately gather information on the reported fire at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, including its EXACT LOCATION, CAUSE, AND EXTENT.
   • Assess the potential for radiological contamination and IMPLEMENT CONTAINMENT MEASURES if necessary.
   • Coordinate with international agencies (IAEA) if required.

4. ASSESS UKRAINIAN ANTI-NAVAL DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the reported Ukrainian development of anti-naval drone systems, including their SPECIFIC CAPABILITIES, RANGE, AND DEPLOYMENT LOCATIONS.
   • Evaluate the potential impact of these systems on Russian naval operations in the BLACK SEA.
   • Develop countermeasures to mitigate the threat posed by these new systems.

5. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE CRISIS AND SECURE STARLINK ACCESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC AND TECHNICAL ACTION): All previous recommendations regarding Starlink remain in effect. This is the TOP PRIORITY.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. This includes verifying the reported Russian strike on the Slavyansk command post, assessing the implications of the reported Russian advances in the Donetsk region, and monitoring the situation on the southern front.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH in the NOVOPAVLOVSKE DIRECTION is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that requires IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREAT, the DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UKRAINIAN WEAPON SYSTEMS, and the POTENTIAL FIRE AT CHERNOBYL add further COMPLEXITY AND URGENCY. The US-UKRAINE CRISIS over STARLINK ACCESS remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL THREAT, with POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukrainian military operations. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL.