Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 11:27 UTC
Changes and New Information (10:58 UTC - 11:27 UTC)
CONFIRMATION OF US PRESSURE REGARDING STARLINK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Kotsnews (10:59 UTC) corroborates the Reuters report, stating that the US may restrict Ukraine's Starlink access if Kyiv doesn't agree to a deal concerning mineral resources. The report claims the issue was raised during meetings between Kellogg and Zelensky.
Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and РБК-Україна (11:09, 11:08, 11:02 UTC respectively) and Sky News report that Zelensky is unwilling to sign the minerals agreement, citing "problematic issues" and "one-sided obligations" on Ukraine's part. Оперативний ЗСУ (11:15 UTC) states that a deal on rare earth metals will not be signed today, citing security concerns.
Assessment: These multiple reports STRONGLY CONFIRM that the US is using STARLINK ACCESS AS LEVERAGE to pressure Ukraine into a MINERAL RIGHTS AGREEMENT. The Ukrainian government's resistance indicates SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT over the terms. This represents a MAJOR CRISIS in US-Ukraine relations and could have DEVASTATING CONSEQUENCES for Ukrainian MILITARY OPERATIONS, COMMUNICATIONS, and INTELLIGENCE. The situation has escalated from a "reported threat" to a CONFIRMED POINT OF CONTENTION with immediate implications.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT IN KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:12 UTC) reports an enemy attack drone in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, moving northwest.
Assessment: Confirms the CONTINUED AND EVOLVING DRONE THREAT. The northwesterly trajectory suggests potential targets FURTHER INLAND. AIR DEFENSE REMAINS CRITICAL.
RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (11:11 UTC) released a video showing Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov visiting the command post of the "Yug" Group of Forces. Gerasimov received reports on the situation and gave instructions.
Assessment: This HIGH-LEVEL VISIT suggests INTENSE FOCUS on the SOUTHERN FRONT. It could indicate PREPARATION FOR NEW OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS, a RESPONSE TO UKRAINIAN ACTIONS, or an ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING CAMPAIGNS. The visit REINFORCES the EXTREME PRIORITY of the SOUTHERN THEATER.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BELOGOROVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:02 UTC) claims Russian forces expelled Ukrainian troops from a bunker west of a chalk quarry in Belogorovka, opening the possibility for further advances.
Assessment:REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a TACTICAL GAIN for Russia and a POTENTIAL SHIFT in the FRONT LINE in that area. The reported location near a quarry suggests POSSIBLE FORTIFIED POSITIONS.
CRIMEAN BLOCKPOSTS AND COMMUNICATION DISRUPTIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (11:25 UTC) claims that Russia has implemented communication shutdowns and is setting up additional checkpoints in occupied Crimea, for training purposes.
Assessment: This report needs investigation.
RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS STRIKES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (12:23:42 UTC) claims Russia has struck gas and energy infrastructure.
Assessment: Requires Verification.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN CHASIV YAR (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:28:42 UTC) claims Russian forces are advancing west of Chasiv Yar, capturing Grygorivka, and advancing along a canal.
Assessment: Requires Verification.
UKRAINIAN TROOPS USING RADIO BRIDGES DUE TO STARLINK UNCERTAINTY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
STERNENKO* (12:24:00) describes an alternative communication solution involving radio antennas and specialized equipment as a potential backup to Starlink.
Assessment: Confirms previous information.
Updated Situation Summary
US-UKRAINE RELATIONS IN CRISIS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The US is using STARLINK ACCESS as leverage to pressure Ukraine into a MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL. Ukraine is resisting, creating a MAJOR RIFT with potentially CATASTROPHIC consequences for Ukrainian military operations. This is now the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL THREAT.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drones remain active in KIROVOHRAD OBLAST, requiring CONSTANT AIR DEFENSE VIGILANCE.
RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP FOCUS ON SOUTHERN FRONT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Gerasimov's visit to the "Yug" Group of Forces command post signals INTENSE FOCUS on the SOUTHERN THEATER, potentially indicating IMMINENT OPERATIONS.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claims of Russian gains in BELOGOROVKA and CHASIV YARREQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS US-UKRAINE CRISIS AND SECURE STARLINK ACCESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC AND TECHNICAL ACTION):
IMMEDIATE AND HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT with the US is PARAMOUNT. This must involve DIRECT COMMUNICATION with the HIGHEST LEVELS of the US government to RESOLVE THE IMPASSE.
Explore all possible options to MAINTAIN STARLINK ACCESS, including:
Negotiating a REVISED AGREEMENT that addresses Ukraine's concerns.
Seeking ALTERNATIVE FUNDING SOURCES for Starlink.
Appealing to INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS for assistance.
Preparing to use other satellite service providers.
Develop and implement contingency plans for operating with LIMITED OR NO STARLINK ACCESS:
Prioritize the use of "radio bridges" and other alternative communication methods.
Establish redundant communication networks.
Adjust operational procedures to minimize reliance on Starlink.
Increase reliance on human intelligence and other non-satellite-based sources.
MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS IN KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain continuous air defense patrols and HIGH ALERT STATUS in KIROVOHRAD OBLAST.
Deploy additional air defense assets if necessary.
Issue frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER when drone activity is detected.
Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE Russian claims of advances in BELOGOROVKA and CHASIV YAR.
Assess the impact of any confirmed losses on Ukrainian defensive positions.
Prepare for counter-attacks if necessary.
MONITOR SOUTHERN FRONT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Increase reconnaissance and surveillance along the ENTIRE SOUTHERN FRONT.
Maintain high alert for signs of IMMINENT RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.
Reinforce Ukrainian positions in vulnerable areas.
Coordinate with Western allies to SHARE INTELLIGENCE and REQUEST ADDITIONAL MILITARY ASSISTANCE.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation has DRAMATICALLY DETERIORATED with the CONFIRMATION of the US-UKRAINE CRISIS over STARLINK ACCESS. This is now the OVERRIDING PRIORITY, as the loss of Starlink would have CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukrainian military capabilities. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS, with PARTICULAR EMPHASIS on SECURING STARLINK ACCESS and MAINTAINING AIR DEFENSE READINESS. The potential for a MAJOR BREAKDOWN IN US-UKRAINE RELATIONS is a GRAVE CONCERN that must be addressed IMMEDIATELY AND EFFECTIVELY. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT and the potential for NEW OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the SOUTH further compound the CRITICAL NATURE of the situation.
