Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 10:57 UTC

Changes and New Information (10:28 UTC - 10:57 UTC)

1. NEW DRONE THREATS REPORTED IN KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:50 UTC) reports a threat of attack drones in Kirovohrad Oblast, moving from the south.
   • Assessment: This confirms a NEW WAVE OF DRONE ATTACKS targeting CENTRAL UKRAINE. The southern origin suggests they may have been launched from the BLACK SEA or OCCUPIED SOUTHERN TERRITORIES. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION is required. This further expands the geographical scope of the ongoing drone attacks, indicating a BROAD RUSSIAN EFFORT TO OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES and potentially TARGET CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE deep within the country.

2. REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK ACCESS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Север.Реалии (10:54 UTC), citing Reuters, reports that the US, during discussions with Ukraine about a minerals deal, raised the issue of potentially cutting off Ukraine's access to Starlink satellite internet. The report cites three sources familiar with the negotiations and claims the threat was made after Zelensky refused to sign the agreement. The article mentions that the Pentagon pays $2.3 million monthly for Ukraine's Starlink contract (citing Bloomberg).
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES URGENT AND CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, this represents EXTREME PRESSURE FROM THE US on Ukraine and could have CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukrainian COMMUNICATIONS, COMMAND AND CONTROL, AND INTELLIGENCE GATHERING. The report suggests a MAJOR RIFT in US-Ukraine relations and a POTENTIAL LEVERAGE POINT for the US to force concessions. IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL to clarify the situation and prevent this outcome. The UNCERTAINTY over whether this involves a complete shutdown or a cessation of US funding adds to the urgency.

3. OTHER REPORTS:

   • Numerous posts from Два майора (10:27 UTC) showcasing soldiers, weapons, and a military flag. Analysis: Propaganda and morale boosting.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (10:30 UTC) posts a recruitment image.
   • Colonelcassad (10:30 UTC) reports on claimed Russian military successes, including the downing of a Ukrainian MiG-29 and the destruction of a Leopard tank. Analysis: Requires verification, likely propaganda.
   • ТАСС (10:31 UTC) reports on a fire in Rostov-on-Don, with no military relevance.
   • ТАСС (10:31 UTC) reports on French scam.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (10:33 UTC) claims a Russian strike on the Slavyansk TPP, claiming damage to a warehouse. Analysis: Requires verification, likely propaganda but could have operational significance.
   • Alex Parker Returns (10:36 UTC) reports on a Telegram sports channel.
   • РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:37 UTC) report a Russian drone attack on a civilian car in Kupyansk, resulting in injuries. Analysis: Confirms ongoing attacks on civilians, war crime.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:37 UTC) reports the downing of a Russian Lancet drone by the 110th Brigade. Analysis: Confirms ongoing drone warfare and Ukrainian air defense successes.
   • ASTRA (10:38 UTC) reports on a fire that killed children.
   • Новости Москвы (10:38 UTC) reports on VDNKh.
   • Colonelcassad (10:39 UTC) reports on alleged Russian airstrikes in Konstantinovka, claiming damage to military infrastructure. Analysis: Requires verification, likely propaganda but highlights a potential target area.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (10:40 UTC) reports on Ukrainian drone strikes in the Kharkiv region, claiming success. Analysis: Confirms ongoing Ukrainian offensive drone operations.
   • ТАСС (10:42 UTC) shows awards given out.
   • НгП раZVедка (10:42 UTC) shows video of a drone strike.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (10:43 UTC) reports on a Ukrainian drone strike in a cemetery. Analysis: Confirms ongoing Ukrainian drone operations.
   • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (10:44 UTC) shows several images of Ukrainian soldiers conducting a workshop with young children.
   • РБК-Україна (10:49 UTC) reports on events in 2022.
   • Colonelcassad (10:53 UTC) shows a church in a winter landscape.
   • ТАСС (10:54 UTC) reports on a scam.

Updated Situation Summary

• INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED & PARTIALLY CONFIRMED): Unchanged. Remains the most immediate military threat.
• NEW DRONE THREAT IN KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): NEW DEVELOPMENT. Requires immediate air defense response and confirms a broadening of the drone attack campaign.
• RUSSIAN MOD CLAIMS WIDESPREAD SUCCESSES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Unchanged. Requires systematic verification.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED & CONFIRMED): Continued reports of Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian drone losses.
• US-UKRAINE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT INTENSIFIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Unchanged. Remains critical.
• POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US MILITARY LEADERSHIP (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES OFFICIAL VERIFICATION): Unchanged. Requires urgent verification.
• POTENTIAL LOSS OF STARLINK ACCESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION): NEW AND CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. Could be catastrophic if true. Requires immediate diplomatic action.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ACTIVATE AIR DEFENSES IN KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available air defense assets to KIROVOHRAD OBLAST to intercept incoming drones.
   • Prioritize the protection of civilian areas and critical infrastructure.
   • Issue clear and frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

2. URGENTLY CLARIFY AND ADDRESS STARLINK SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Immediately engage with US officials at the HIGHEST LEVEL to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the report of a potential Starlink cutoff.
   • Emphasize the catastrophic consequences of such an action for Ukrainian defense capabilities.
   • Explore all possible avenues to MAINTAIN STARLINK ACCESS, including direct negotiations, alternative funding sources, and appeals to international partners.
   • Develop contingency plans for operating with LIMITED OR NO STARLINK ACCESS, including alternative communication methods and reliance on other intelligence sources.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Unchanged.

4. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED US MILITARY LEADERSHIP CHANGES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Unchanged.

5. MAINTAIN AND STRENGTHEN US-UKRAINE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Increased urgency due to the Starlink report.

6. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): Increased urgency due to the expanding drone threat.

7. MONITOR SITUATION IN DNIPRO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): Unchanged.

8. CONTINUE TO IMPLEMENT THE NEW UKRAINIAN DRONE PROCUREMENT SYSTEM, FOCUS ON COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Unchanged.

9. ADDRESS POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF INTELLIGENCE SHARING (HIGH PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION): Increased urgency due to the Starlink report and potential for strained US-Ukraine relations.

10. CLARIFY TERMS OF POTENTIAL UKRAINE-US MINERAL RIGHTS AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Increased urgency, as this appears to be a key point of contention.

11. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): Unchanged.

12. IMPLEMENT BUTUSOV'S RECOMMENDATIONS TO COUNTER TRUMP PRESSURE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC AND INTERNAL ACTION): Unchanged.

13. INVESTIGATE AND ADDRESS REPORTED RUSSIAN MEDICAL SUPPORT ISSUES (HIGH PRIORITY, HUMANITARIAN AND OPERATIONAL): Unchanged.

14. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

15. VERIFY AND ASSESS UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Unchanged.

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DETERIORATING RAPIDLY. The NEW DRONE THREAT, the POTENTIAL LOSS OF STARLINK ACCESS, and the CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS create a MULTI-FRONT CRISIS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS, with PARTICULAR EMPHASIS on SECURING STARLINK ACCESS and MAINTAINING AIR DEFENSE READINESS. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR BREAKDOWN IN US-UKRAINE RELATIONS is a GRAVE CONCERN that must be addressed IMMEDIATELY AND EFFECTIVELY.