Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 06:57 UTC

Changes and New Information (06:27 UTC - 06:57 UTC)

1. REPORTED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK STATISTICS (LOW PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Multiple sources corroborate previous reports of a massive overnight drone attack by Russia, citing figures from the Ukrainian Air Force: 162 drones launched, 82 shot down, 75 "locationally lost" (without negative consequences). ASTRA (06:21 UTC), РБК-Україна (06:04, 06:14 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:15 UTC), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:06, original report 05:58 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (06:02 UTC), and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:06 UTC).
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the established assessment of a MASSIVE overnight drone attack. The widespread reporting and consistent figures strengthen the reliability of the information. However, the specific details of affected regions vary slightly between sources.
   • РБК-Україна reports on an attack in Cherkasy Oblast (06:34), where 20 drones were allegedly destroyed, with no reports of damages or casualties.

2. REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Два майора (06:52 UTC) reports that the US threatened to cut Starlink in Ukraine over a disagreement regarding mineral resources, according to Reuters.

   • Colonelcassad (06:22 UTC) claimed the same, citing "American press."

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:49 UTC) made a similar report, citing "Reuters Exclusive."

   • Assessment: This MULTIPLE-SOURCE REPORTING, including claims attributed to REUTERS, significantly INCREASES THE CONCERN regarding this potential threat. It REINFORCES THE URGENT NEED FOR VERIFICATION. The potential loss of Starlink remains a CRITICAL issue that could have DEVASTATING consequences for Ukrainian military communications. The claim that ZELENSKY HAS ALREADY AGREED to a deal involving minerals and is simply negotiating details needs further examination.

3. REPORTED RUSSIAN ATTACK LOCATIONS IN KHARKIV OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (06:31) reported on Russian attacks for February 21st and the night of the 22nd, including: * 04:15, Feb 22nd: Lobanivka, Kharkivskyi district, guided bomb attack, house destroyed by fire, no casualties. * 04:22, Feb 22nd: Makarikha, Bohodukhivskyi district, guided bomb attack, no damages or casualties. * 08:00, Feb 21st: Kupiansk, Molniya drone attack, damaged car, three police officers injured. * 08:07, Feb 21st: near Shevchenkove, Kupianskyi district, Molniya-2 drone attack, car destroyed. * 09:30, Feb 21st: Borova, Iziumskyi district, guided bomb attack, house damaged. * 09:30, Feb 21st: Pidlyman, Iziumskyi district, guided bomb attack, two houses and three outbuildings damaged. * 09:30, Feb 21st: Borova, Iziumskyi district, guided bomb attack, garage damaged, high-voltage line damaged, partial power outage. * 10:00, Feb 21st: Novoplatonivka, Iziumskyi district, guided bomb attack, no casualties. * 10:50, Feb 21st: Zolochiv, Bohodukhivskyi district, guided bomb attack, no casualties or damage. * 11:00, Feb 21st: Orishanka, Bohodukhivskyi district, guided bomb attack, no casualties. * 11:00, Feb 21st: Horokhovatka, Iziumskyi district, Molniya-2 drone debris, no casualties or damage. * 11:05, Feb 21st: Zolochiv, Bohodukhivskyi district, guided bomb attack, cars burned, two houses, employment center, apartment building, and shop damaged, five injured (three women, two men). * 12:20, Feb 21st: Kupiansk, FPV drone attack, house damaged. * 12:30, Feb 21st: Borschova, Kharkivskyi district, FPV drone attack, no casualties or damage. * 12:30, Feb 21st: Zaluzhne, Kharkivskyi district, Geran-2 drone debris, no casualties. * 17:05, Feb 21st: Kamianka, Iziumskyi district, missile debris found, type being determined. * 23:01, Feb 21st: Blyzniuky, Lozivskyi district, two Geran-2 drone attacks, damage to warehouse roofs. * Repeated reports of attacks in the Kharkiv and Kupyansk directions, including repelled attacks near Vovchansk and Zahryzove.

   • Assessment: This DETAILED REPORTING provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of Russian attacks in Kharkiv Oblast, confirming the use of both GUIDED BOMBS and VARIOUS DRONE TYPES (Molniya, FPV, Geran-2). The MULTIPLE INCIDENTS and VARIETY OF LOCATIONS highlight the INTENSITY AND BREADTH of Russian activity in the region.

4. UKRAINIAN MILITARY SITUATION REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (06:49 UTC) reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces stopped 90 attacks in the past 24 hours. The Pokrovsk direction remains the most active, with 29 attacks.

   • 46 окрема аеромобільна бригада ДШВ ЗС України (06:43 UTC) released video footage of a Ukrainian drone strike destroying a fortified position of Russian FPV drone operators.

   • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (06:46 UTC) released footage of multiple strikes against enemy vehicles and drones.

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:45 UTC) released footage of a meeting between the new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Syrskyi, and the German General Breuer. Topics of discussion included the front-line situation, Ukraine's transition to a corps structure, and German military aid.

   • Assessment: These reports REINFORCE previous assessments of INTENSE FIGHTING, particularly in the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The videos released by Ukrainian military units DEMONSTRATE UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS and ACTIVE USE OF DRONES. The meeting between Ukrainian and German military officials HIGHLIGHTS ONGOING INTERNATIONAL MILITARY SUPPORT for Ukraine.

5. OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE (LOW TO MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (06:31) reported about a phone call between Zelensky and several European leaders.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:35) citing the Wall Street Journal, reported that Russia could potentially grant US companies rights to mineral deposits in occupied Ukrainian territories as part of a peace agreement.
   • Военкор Котенок (06:53 UTC) reports that Trump denied plans to visit Moscow on May 9th. The report also claims that a deal regarding rare earth metals will be signed today, with Washington pressuring Kyiv. It further alleges that THE WALL STREET JOURNAL claims US companies may gain access to mineral deposits in Russian-controlled territories, suggesting US pressure on Russia.
   • Военкор Котенок (06:51) mentioned that air defense shot down only two drones at night (Rostov and Voronezh regions).
   • ТАСС (06:34 UTC) reports that temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and release at the airports of Kazan and Nizhnekamsk were lifted at 09:00 MSK. * ТАСС (06:42, 06:48, 06:56 UTC) reports on a large fire at a warehouse in Rostov-on-Don, initially covering 1,800 square meters and later localized.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources confirm details: 162 drones launched, 82 shot down, 75 "locationally lost".
• REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports, including claims attributed to REUTERS and THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, suggest INTENSE US PRESSURE on Ukraine regarding a rare earth minerals deal, with the THREAT OF CUTTING STARLINK access. This remains the MOST CRITICAL AND URGENT issue to verify.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Pokrovsk remains the hottest spot. Detailed reports from Kharkiv Oblast confirm widespread Russian attacks using guided bombs and various drone types.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Video evidence demonstrates Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian positions and vehicles.
• ONGOING INTERNATIONAL MILITARY SUPPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Meeting between Ukrainian and German military officials confirms continued support and coordination.
• POSSIBLE AGREEMENT CONCERNING RARE EARTH MINERALS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Zelensky's phone calls and reports of the deal confirm its existence.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK AND PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek confirmation from US officials regarding the reported threat to cut Starlink access, leveraging all available diplomatic and intelligence channels.
   • Emphasize the CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES of a Starlink outage for Ukrainian military communications and command and control, and the RISK OF SIGNIFICANT BATTLEFIELD LOSSES.
   • Develop contingency plans for maintaining communications and command and control in the event of a Starlink outage. This may include:
     • Exploring alternative satellite communication providers.
     • Strengthening terrestrial communication networks.
     • Developing alternative communication protocols.
     • Preparing for a significant degradation in communication capabilities.

2. ADDRESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to assess the damage caused by the drone attacks across multiple regions.
   • Evaluate the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses and IDENTIFY ANY GAPS or vulnerabilities.
   • Analyze Russian tactics, including the use of "dummy" drones, to IMPROVE COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES.
   • Provide immediate support to affected populations and REPAIR DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT AND DEFENSIVE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain high alert across all affected regions, particularly in areas experiencing ongoing attacks (Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, etc.).
   • Continue to prioritize air defense operations against drones and potential air-launched weapons.
   • Reinforce defensive positions in key areas.
   • Ensure clear communication with the public, urging them to take shelter during air raid alerts.

4. INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL US POLICY SHIFTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continuously monitor reports and statements from US officials regarding their policy towards Ukraine.
   • Seek clarification on any potential changes in US military aid or diplomatic support.
   • Assess the credibility of reports suggesting pressure on Ukraine to make concessions.
   • Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios, including reduced US support.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. This includes verifying the reported US refusal to prosecute Russia, investigating the Kyiv Oblast drone attack, addressing the situation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and investigating potential Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK is the MOST CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE CONCERN, requiring URGENT ACTION to verify and mitigate. The MASSIVE OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK and CONTINUED FIGHTING across multiple fronts highlight the INTENSITY OF THE CONFLICT. MAINTAINING AIR DEFENSE READINESS, ADDRESSING THE STARLINK THREAT, and PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN US POLICY are PARAMOUNT.