Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 06:27 UTC

Changes and New Information (05:58 UTC - 06:27 UTC)

1. MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK OVERNIGHT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (05:58 UTC, 06:06 UTC), РБК-Україна (06:04 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (06:02 UTC), and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:15 UTC) report that Russia launched 162 DRONES overnight, including Shahed-type attack drones and "dummy" drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 82. 75 "dummy" drones were "locationally lost" (without negative consequences). The attack originated from Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia.
   • Affected Oblasts: Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts were confirmed to have suffered damage.
   • Assessment: This confirms a MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK across Ukraine, the LARGEST REPORTED IN RECENT UPDATES. The HIGH NUMBER OF DRONES launched demonstrates INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN EFFORTS to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. While the reported shoot-down rate is significant, the DAMAGE IN MULTIPLE OBLASTS underscores the ONGOING THREAT and the POTENTIAL FOR AIR DEFENSE GAPS. The use of "dummy" drones highlights SOPHISTICATED RUSSIAN TACTICS to DISTRACT AND DEPLETE Ukrainian air defense resources.

2. BELGIUM DELAYS F-16 DELIVERY TO UKRAINE BY A YEAR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (06:01 UTC) reports that Belgium has delayed the delivery of its F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by a year. The Chief of the Belgian General Staff, General Frederik Vansina, cited delays in the delivery of new F-35 aircraft from the US to Belgium, lack of spare parts for the F-16s, and insufficient pilots.
   • Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT SETBACK for Ukraine's efforts to MODERNIZE ITS AIR FORCE and COUNTER RUSSIAN AIR SUPERIORITY. The delay FURTHER POSTPONES the EXPECTED IMPACT of Western-supplied fighter jets on the battlefield. The reasons cited highlight LOGISTICAL AND SUPPLY CHAIN CHALLENGES in providing advanced military equipment to Ukraine.

3. REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK IF UKRAINE REJECTS MINERALS DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • STERNENKO (05:59 UTC) reports, citing Reuters, that Keith Kellogg threatened to cut Starlink for the Ukrainian Armed Forces if Zelensky refuses to sign an agreement on rare earth metals. Colonelcassad (06:22 UTC) makes a similar claim.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE US PRESSURE on Ukraine regarding the rare earth metals deal. The alleged threat to cut Starlink, which is CRITICAL for Ukrainian military communications and command and control, represents a MAJOR ESCALATION. This FURTHER SUPPORTS THE NARRATIVE of a POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards a MORE TRANSACTIONAL AND LESS SUPPORTIVE approach to Ukraine. URGENT VERIFICATION remains PARAMOUNT.

4. NEW AIR RAID ALERT, NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:26 UTC) reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern direction and a threat of using air-launched weapons in frontline areas.
   • Assessment: This indicates a NEW, IMMINENT THREAT of air attacks in the NORTHEASTERN regions. PRIORITY to ALERT FRONT-LINE UNITS and MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS in this new area.

5. UKRAINIAN SITUATION REPORTS (UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:02, 06:04, 06:06) has released several updates. There were 90 combat clashes in the past 24 hours. Yesterday the enemy launched 1 missile strike with 2 missiles, 72 air strikes (dropping 92 KABs). Over 5,000 shellings were performed, 130 with MRLS, and 3,050 kamikaze drones were launched. Enemy air strikes were in Zolochiv and Borova (Kharkiv oblast), Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka, Toretsk, Hrodivka, Lysivka, Myrnohrad, Novooleksandrivka, and Novopil (Donetsk oblast); and Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia oblast). * Kharkiv Direction: Enemy tried twice to break through the defense near Vovchansk. * Kupyansk Direction: Five attacks near Zahryzove. * Lyman Direction: Seven attacks, near Kopanky, Novolyubivka, Terny, Yampolivka, and Kolodyazi. * Kramatorsk Direction: Three attacks near Vasylivka. * Toretsk Direction: Thirteen attacks in Toretsk, Krymske, Shcherbynivka, and Diliivka. * Pokrovsk Direction: Twenty-nine attacks in Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Svyrydonivka, Promin, Pishchane, Serhiivka, Andriivka, Ulakly, Udachne, Nadiivka, and Molodetske. * Novopavlivka Direction: Five attacks toward Kostiantynopol and Burlatske. * Orikhiv Direction: Three attacks near Shcherbaky and Piatykhatky. * Siverskyi, Huliaipole, and Prydniprovskyi Directions: No enemy activity. * Volyn and Polissia Directions: No signs of enemy offensive formations. * Kursk Direction: Ukrainian forces are continuing operations. Enemy launched 31 airstrikes (dropping 43 KABs), 437 shellings (3 with MLRS). Ukrainian forces repelled 15 attacks. * Casualties: Russian losses: 1,140 personnel, 15 tanks, 9 armored fighting vehicles, 66 artillery systems, 155 tactical-level UAVs, 139 vehicles, and 1 piece of special equipment.

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (06:25) confirms the Pokrovsk direction details.

   • Assessment: This report details the current intense fight.

6. IRRELEVANT UPDATES:

   • Дневник Десантника (06:02): Information about participants is irrelevant.
   • TASS (05:59): Information about the Russian child certificate is irrelevant.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK OVERNIGHT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russia launched 162 DRONES, including Shahed-type attack drones and "dummy" drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 82. Damage reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest INCREASED US PRESSURE on Ukraine to sign a rare earth minerals deal, with the THREAT OF CUTTING STARLINK access.
• BELGIUM DELAYS F-16 DELIVERY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): F-16 deliveries to Ukraine delayed by a year due to logistical and supply chain issues.
• NEW AIR RAID ALERT, NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Imminent threat of air attacks in the northeast.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm continued intense fighting across various sectors, particularly in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
• CONFIRMED FATALITY IN KYIV OBLAST DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a critical issue.
• REPORTED US REFUSAL TO PROSECUTE RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains a top concern, requiring URGENT VERIFICATION.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE NORTHEASTERN AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain high alert across all affected regions, particularly in the NORTHEAST due to the reported activity of Russian tactical aviation.
   • Continue to prioritize air defense operations against drones and potential air-launched weapons.
   • Ensure clear communication with the public, urging them to take shelter during air raid alerts.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets to the northeast if available.

2. ADDRESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Conduct a thorough assessment of the damage caused by the drone attacks in all affected regions.
   • Evaluate the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses in intercepting the drones.
   • Identify any gaps in air defense coverage and DEVELOP STRATEGIES to address them.
   • Analyze Russian tactics, including the use of "dummy" drones, to IMPROVE COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES.
   • Provide immediate support to affected populations and REPAIR DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE.

3. VERIFY REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK AND PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek confirmation from US officials regarding the reported threat to cut Starlink access.
   • Engage in high-level diplomatic efforts to PREVENT THE CUT-OFF OF STARLINK, emphasizing its CRITICAL IMPORTANCE for Ukrainian military communications and command and control.
   • Develop contingency plans for maintaining communications and command and control in the event of a Starlink outage. This may include:
     • Exploring alternative satellite communication providers.
     • Strengthening terrestrial communication networks.
     • Developing alternative communication protocols.

4. MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF THE F-16 DELIVERY DELAY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Engage with Belgium and other potential suppliers of fighter jets to EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS for accelerating the delivery of air power capabilities to Ukraine.
   • Focus on enhancing existing air defense capabilities to COMPENSATE for the delayed arrival of F-16s.
   • Continue training Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crews on F-16s to ensure READINESS when the aircraft eventually arrive.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. This includes verifying the reported US refusal to prosecute Russia, investigating the Kyiv Oblast drone attack, addressing the situation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and investigating potential Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK, REPORTED US THREAT TO CUT STARLINK, and DELAYED F-16 DELIVERY represent MAJOR CHALLENGES. The CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts and the IMMINENT THREAT OF AIR ATTACKS IN THE NORTHEAST require IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED ATTENTION. PRIORITIZING AIR DEFENSE, VERIFYING US POLICY, ADDRESSING THE STARLINK THREAT, and MITIGATING THE F-16 DELAY are PARAMOUNT.