НгП раZVедка (05:02 UTC) reports, based on "a number of enemy actions," that Ukrainian forces are PREPARING FOR OFFENSIVE ACTIONS near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) to regain lost positions. Specific claims include:
Formation of additional UAV operator units within the 28th Mechanized Brigade to destroy Russian reconnaissance UAVs.
Transfer of forces from the 12th "Azov" Brigade from the Kherson direction, reinforced with up to eight Czech-made "DITA" self-propelled howitzers.
Increased reconnaissance drone flights near Dzerzhinsk.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT REPORT suggesting a POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE. The specific details provided, especially the reinforcement with "DITA" howitzers and the focus on counter-UAV operations, suggest a WELL-PLANNED AND RESOURCED EFFORT. This MUST BE URGENTLY VERIFIED using all available intelligence sources. If confirmed, this represents a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that could significantly alter the battlefield dynamics in the Donetsk region. It is CRITICAL to determine the TIMING AND SCALE of this potential offensive.
Colonelcassad (05:04 UTC) reports the destruction of a Ukrainian 122-mm 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer by two "fiber-optic drones" on the Kupiansk direction. The report credits the 6th Army of the Leningrad Military District. A video is provided.
Assessment: The video APPEARS TO CONFIRM the strike. The use of "fiber-optic drones" (likely referring to drones with a fiber-optic guidance system for increased precision) is NOTABLE. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of extensive drone warfare on both sides. The claimed destruction of the howitzer, if accurate, represents a TACTICAL SUCCESS for Russian forces and a LOSS OF FIRE SUPPORT CAPABILITY for Ukraine in the Kupiansk area.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (05:13 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (05:17 UTC), and РБК-Україна (05:24 UTC) report updated figures for estimated Russian losses from February 24, 2022, to February 22, 2025. Key daily increases include:
1,140 personnel
15 tanks
9 AFVs
66 artillery systems
Assessment: These are SIGNIFICANT CLAIMS of HIGH RUSSIAN LOSSES. While these are Ukrainian estimates and should be treated with caution.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (05:19 UTC), citing the Wall Street Journal, reports that President Zelensky MAY SIGN AN AGREEMENT ON MINERALS WITH THE US TODAY, FEBRUARY 22.
Оперативний ЗСУ (05:26 UTC) claims, citing Reuters, that the US is THREATENING TO CUT OFF UKRAINE FROM STARLINK if the minerals agreement is not signed.
Assessment: These reports suggest HIGH-LEVEL NEGOTIATIONS between the US and Ukraine regarding access to Ukrainian mineral resources. The alleged threat to cut off Starlink access adds a LAYER OF PRESSURE to the negotiations. This REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING for confirmation and further details. The implications for the war effort, particularly regarding access to critical communications infrastructure, could be SIGNIFICANT.
RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND SHELLING IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (05:10 UTC) reports that Russian forces carried out 517 strikes on 10 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past 24 hours. Specific details include:
10 airstrikes on Huliaipole.
313 UAV attacks on various settlements.
8 MLRS strikes.
186 artillery strikes.
Three injuries (two women and one man) in Huliaipole.
20 reports of damage to apartments and private houses.
A photo shows damage to a residential building.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED INTENSE RUSSIAN ATTACKS in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. The HIGH NUMBER OF STRIKES and the VARIETY OF WEAPONS USED demonstrate the SCALE AND INTENSITY of the Russian offensive in this area. The reported injuries and damage to civilian infrastructure HIGHLIGHT THE HUMANITARIAN COST of the conflict.
Fighterbomber (05:00) showcases aerial refueling from an Il-78 aircraft.
Assessment: Demonstrates extended operations.
UKRAINIAN LOSSES (UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
РБК-Україна(05:26) Reports on damages after drone strikes in Kyiv Oblast. A photo of damage to infrastructure.
Assessment: Continues attacks and losses.
IRRELEVANT UPDATES:
Fighterbomber (05:00) and АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (05:06): Irrelevant "Good Morning" messages.
Два майора (05:02): Patriotic music video with limited strategic value.
Рыбарь (05:16): Request for commercial cooperation.
ТАСС (05:22) Report on the bullying prevention law is not related.
Военкор Котенок (05:19) Commentary on Klitschko's statement has minimal new value.
Updated Situation Summary
POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE NEAR KONSTANTINOVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):NEW reports of PREPARATIONS FOR OFFENSIVE ACTIONS by Ukrainian forces near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), including REINFORCEMENT WITH "DITA" HOWITZERS and a FOCUS ON COUNTER-UAV OPERATIONS. This MUST BE URGENTLY VERIFIED.
REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Video APPEARS TO CONFIRM the destruction of a Ukrainian 2S1 howitzer by "fiber-optic drones" on the Kupiansk direction.
UPDATED UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF HIGH RUSSIAN LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Continued claims of significant Russian losses.
REPORTS ON POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE MINERALS DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Suggestions of HIGH-LEVEL NEGOTIATIONS and POTENTIAL PRESSURE TACTICS involving Starlink access.
CONTINUED INTENSE RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):CONFIRMED reports of widespread Russian airstrikes, UAV attacks, and shelling, causing injuries and damage to civilian infrastructure.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE NEAR KONSTANTINOVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reports of Ukrainian offensive preparations near Dzerzhinsk.
Determine the TIMING, SCALE, AND OBJECTIVES of any planned offensive.
Assess the readiness and capabilities of Ukrainian forces in the area, particularly the integration of the "DITA" howitzers.
Increase surveillance of Russian positions and movements in the area to DETECT ANY POTENTIAL COUNTER-MEASURES.
ANALYZE VIDEO OF REPORTED ARTILLERY STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Conduct a detailed analysis of the video provided by Colonelcassad to CONFIRM THE IDENTITY AND LOCATION of the destroyed equipment.
Assess the effectiveness of the "fiber-optic drones" used in the attack.
Investigate the potential implications of this technology for future Russian operations.
MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS ON POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE MINERALS DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Gather intelligence on the details of any potential agreement.
Assess the potential impact on the war effort, particularly regarding access to Starlink and other critical resources.
Analyze the political implications of the negotiations, both domestically and internationally.
CONTINUE MONITORING AND RESPONDING TO RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Maintain close monitoring of Russian military activity in the region.
Provide air defense support to protect civilian populations and critical infrastructure.
Document and investigate all reports of civilian casualties and damage to civilian property.
Continue to assess the humanitarian needs of the affected population and COORDINATE AID DELIVERY.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL FOR A UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE near Konstantinovka represents a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that could SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS. The CONTINUED INTENSE RUSSIAN ATTACKS in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the REPORTS OF HIGH RUSSIAN LOSSES (according to Ukrainian claims) underscore the INTENSITY OF THE CONFLICT. The POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE MINERALS DEAL adds a COMPLEX LAYER OF GEOPOLITICAL MANEUVERING. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS remain PARAMOUNT.
