Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 04:57 UTC

Changes and New Information (04:27 UTC - 04:57 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED NEAR KURAKHOVE, VELYKA NOVOSILKA, AND IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (04:28), citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports recent Russian advances near Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, and also pressure in Kursk Oblast. Maps are provided.
   • Assessment: This CORROBORATES previous reports of RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in multiple areas. The inclusion of KURSK OBLAST is NEW and suggests POTENTIAL CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY or PREPARATIONS FOR OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS from Russian territory. The MAPS REQUIRE DETAILED ANALYSIS to determine the EXTENT AND STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE of these advances.
   • Kursk Map Analysis: Geolocated footage confirms Russian advances in southern Sverdlikovo.
   • Kharkiv Map Analysis: Russian advances near Kharkiv, especially in regions adjacent to the city.
   • Luhansk Map Analysis: Russian advances near Kupiansk, Svatove, Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Pokrovsk.
   • Chasiv Yar Map Analysis: Significant fighting.
   • Toretsk Map Analysis: Russian advances and Ukrainian Counteroffensives.
   • Pokrovsk Map Analysis: Geolocated footage shows advances in central Lysivka.
   • Kherson Map Analysis: Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
   • Zaporizhia Map Analysis: Fighting and claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives.
   • Donetsk Map Analysis: Sustained Russian efforts towards establishing control.

2. DRONE ATTACK DAMAGE IN KYIV OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (04:54) reports damage to a police patrol car, a warehouse, a private house, an educational institution, and an apartment building in the Boryspil district due to a drone attack. A photo is provided.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS and EXPANDS on previous reports of a FATAL DRONE ATTACK in the Boryspil district. The DAMAGE TO A POLICE VEHICLE is NEW and suggests the POTENTIAL TARGETING OF LAW ENFORCEMENT. The WIDESPREAD DAMAGE to civilian infrastructure REINFORCES THE INDISCRIMINATE NATURE of these attacks.

• Photo analysis: Damaged tracks, with police investigation.

3. AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS IN KAZAN AND NIZHNEKAMSK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (04:40) and РБК-Україна (04:50) report "temporary restrictions" and the implementation of the "Kover" ("Carpet") plan at airports in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk, Russia, for "flight safety."
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL AIR THREAT or SECURITY CONCERN in the region. The "Kover" plan typically indicates a RESPONSE TO UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS or POTENTIAL AIR ATTACKS. This COULD BE RELATED to UKRAINIAN UAV ACTIVITY, although NO DIRECT LINK HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.

4. RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO TARGET UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS IN KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны* (04:51): Shows drone footage targeting vehicles, buildings, and other infrastructure.
   • Assessment: These attacks are being launched from a border region, which may indicate a new front.

5. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA REGARDING EDUCATION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (04:30): Showcases how the education system in Russia is working to indoctrinate children.
   • Assessment: The Russian government is actively trying to influence the hearts and minds of the youth to support its war.

6. NON MILITARY RELATED MESSAGES:

• ТАСС (04:32) reports that stand-up comedian Ruslan Bely (recognized as a foreign agent in the Russian Federation) appealed the refusal to remove his foreign agent status in court. This is not related. * Басурин о главном (04:39): Historical figure commemoration.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, INCLUDING KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): NEW reports of Russian advances in KURSK OBLAST, suggesting POTENTIAL CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY. CONFIRMED advances near KURAKHOVE and VELYKA NOVOSILKA. MAP ANALYSIS CONFIRMS ADVANCES in several key areas.
• DRONE ATTACK IN BORYSPIL DISTRICT CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE, INCLUDING POLICE VEHICLE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): EXPANDED reports of damage, including a POLICE VEHICLE, highlighting the INDISCRIMINATE NATURE of the attacks and POTENTIAL TARGETING OF LAW ENFORCEMENT.
• AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS IN KAZAN AND NIZHNEKAMSK SUGGEST POTENTIAL AIR THREAT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Implementation of the "Kover" plan SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE AIR THREAT or SECURITY CONCERN in the region, POTENTIALLY RELATED to UKRAINIAN UAV ACTIVITY.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ATTACK INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Attacks continue across multiple fronts.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Increase reconnaissance and surveillance along the border with Kursk Oblast to DETERMINE THE SCALE AND NATURE of Russian activity.
   • Deploy additional forces to the border region if necessary to DETER POTENTIAL INCURSIONS or OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.
   • Gather intelligence on Russian troop deployments and intentions in the area.

2. ENHANCE SECURITY MEASURES FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Increase patrols and security around police stations and facilities.
   • Provide additional protective equipment to law enforcement personnel.
   • Gather intelligence on potential threats to law enforcement to proactively prevent attacks.

3. MONITOR AIRSPACE NEAR KAZAN AND NIZHNEKAMSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain close contact with Russian aviation authorities to GATHER INFORMATION on the nature of the "Kover" plan implementation.
   • Increase surveillance of airspace in the region to DETECT ANY POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN UAV ACTIVITY.

4. ANALYZE ISW MAPS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Further analyze the ISW maps provided by РБК-Україна to DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE of reported Russian advances.
   • Identify key terrain features and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OBJECTIVES.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, now including KURSK OBLAST, represent a WIDENING OF THE CONFLICT and POTENTIAL FOR NEW FRONTS. The DRONE ATTACK IN BORYSPIL, causing WIDESPREAD DAMAGE and POTENTIALLY TARGETING LAW ENFORCEMENT, highlights the CONTINUED VULNERABILITY OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and the NEED FOR ENHANCED SECURITY MEASURES. The AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS IN RUSSIA suggest a POTENTIAL AIR THREAT, requiring CLOSE MONITORING. RAPID RESPONSE, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING remain PARAMOUNT.