Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 14:54 UTC

Changes and New Information (14:25 UTC - 14:54 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (14:24 UTC) reports that over 250 Ukrainian soldiers, 4 APCs, and 15 armored vehicles were destroyed in the Kursk region. Russian forces are reportedly reinforcing defense lines with foreign mercenaries in Sudzhansky district near Sudzha. Counterattacks were reported near Sverdlikovo and Guevo. Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are actively operating in the forested areas near Guevo, targeting enemy positions and temporary deployment points. Positional battles continue in Pogrebki. Aviation and artillery are actively used against enemy positions in Malaya Loknya, described as a key distribution hub for enemy forces. A Ukrainian "Hamvee" (HMMWV) with its crew was reportedly destroyed by a drone near Malaya Loknya. Russian forces are fighting for Lebedevka after liberating Sverdlikovo, while also repelling Ukrainian counterattacks on Sverdlikovo. Ukrainian forces are reportedly amassing reserves near the Sumy region, close to the Grayvoron district of the Belgorod region, potentially indicating preparations for a breakthrough attempt.
   • Assessment: This confirms INTENSE FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION, with SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported. The reported destruction of Ukrainian equipment and personnel, IF CONFIRMED, represents a MAJOR SETBACK for Ukrainian forces. The use of foreign mercenaries by Ukraine and Russian aviation and artillery highlights the ESCALATED NATURE of the conflict in this area. The potential for a Ukrainian breakthrough attempt near Grayvoron needs to be CLOSELY MONITORED.

2. RUSSIAN SITUATION REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (14:24 UTC) reports the following situation: * Counter-Terrorist Operation (CTO) Zone: In the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region, Russian forces captured new positions between Fanaseevka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka over the past three days. Russian troops also expanded their control zone around Sverdlikovo and crossed the border with the Sumy region near the Noven'koe forestry. * Dvurechnoe Direction: Russian forces liberated most of Topoli. * Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces continue to advance northwest of Orlyanskoe. * Oskol Front: Russian forces crossed the Zherebets River southwest of Nevskoe and advanced north of Ivanovka, entering Novolyubovka, where fighting is ongoing. * Chasov Yar Area: Russian forces took full control of Grigorovka after months of positional battles. * Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces captured most of Zaporozye and took positions east of Kotlyno. * Velikonovoselovskoe Direction: Russian forces advanced south of Burlatskoe. * Zaporozhye Front: For the first time since 2023, Russian forces launched an offensive on Pyatikhatki and reached the first houses of the village from the southeast. A correction of the front north of Zherebyanki is noted, as some positions are under Ukrainian control.
     • Detailed map analysis confirms these changes, with emphasis in multiple sectors.
   • Assessment: This provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of RUSSIAN ADVANCES across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The report highlights the PERSISTENT RUSSIAN PRESSURE and SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in various sectors. The reports should be VERIFIED WITH OTHER SOURCES.

3. UPDATE ON UKRAINE-US MINERALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (21:37 UTC) reports that the US has given Ukraine an updated agreement on useful minerals. NOTE: This was mistakenly categorized as a new report, it was included in the previous update. Its placement here reflects its continued relevance, but not new information.
   • Assessment: Not a change to the situation, this should be deleted.

4. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE NEAR KONSTANTYNOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (14:44 UTC) reports that drone operators of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group hit a Ukrainian tank near Konstantynopol and finished it off on the road towards Bogatyr.
   • Assessment: This reports a SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE against Ukrainian armor. This confirms that Russia continues the Air Attacks.

5. FIGHTING IN BOGATYRSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (14:46 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces acknowledge the complete capture of Ulakly by Russian forces. Russian assaults advanced in the southern part of Konstantinopol. Assault groups from the southwestern part of Andreevka are putting pressure on Ukrainian forces northwest of Konstantinopol from the northern bank of the Volchya River. Units of the "Vostok" group are attacking Razliv from the south and southeast.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued attacks and reinforces Russia.

6. RUSSIAN FLAG RAISED IN ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Воин DV (14:50 UTC) reports that the Russian flag is now flying in Ulakly, claiming the liberation of southeastern Ukraine by the forces of the Far East. Assault troops of the 39th Guards Brigade moved from the eastern outskirts, destroying the enemy and capturing block after block. The video released shows soldiers raising a Russian flag over damaged buildings.
   • Assessment: This confirms that Russia has taken Ulakly.

7. FIGHTING IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*    *Военкор Котенок* (14:51 UTC) reports a very difficult situation in the center of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Ukrainian forces reportedly used mass drone strikes to capture most of Lysovka and the eastern part of Dachenske a few days ago. While Ukrainian forces were reportedly driven out of Dachenske, Russian counterattacks in Lysovka have been unsuccessful for several days. Russian assault troops attacked across the ravine and gained a foothold in the center of the northern part of the village. Russian forces are also reportedly pressing in the eastern part.

*   **Assessment:** This confirms *INTENSE FIGHTING* in the *POKROVSK DIRECTION*, with a focus on *LYSOVKA*.

8. FIGHTING IN SUMY DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*    *Военкор Котенок* (14:49 UTC) reports that Russian forces are attacking on the front section west of Sverdlikovo and Nikolo-Daryino in the Kursk region, as well as in Noven'koe and Basovo in the Sumy region, advancing towards the N07 (P200) road going from Yunakovka to Sudzha and further north. This road is used to supply the entire Ukrainian group in the Kursk region.
*   **Assessment:** This confirms *INTENSE FIGHTING* in the *SUMY DIRECTION*, with Russian forces.

9. UKRAINE-US NEGOTIATIONS ON MINERALS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

*    *ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS* (14:50) reports that Ukraine and the US held negotiations all night to agree on a mineral agreement, citing Axios. A US official reportedly warned that this is a crucial moment for Ukraine.
*   **Assessment:** This confirms that Ukraine and the US have been in deep discussions over an agreement, but the details of the agreement are still unknown.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports from multiple Russian sources, supported by map evidence, indicate significant Russian advances in the KURSK, DONETSK (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv), AND SUMY REGIONS. Ulakly is confirmed captured.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Heavy fighting continues in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
• SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure remain unchanged.
• SOPHISTICATED RUSSIAN DRONE TACTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian drone tactics remain unchanged.
• REPORTED SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DEFENSE NEAR LOZOVA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Ukrainian defense remain unchanged.
• UKRAINE-US RARE EARTH METALS AGREEMENT IN PROGRESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Strategic cooperation on critical resources is ongoing.
• RUSSIA PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): Discussions on regulating Western businesses remain unchanged.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. REINFORCE DEFENSES AND PREPARE FOR CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN DONETSK AND SUMY REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize reinforcement of Ukrainian defenses near KONSTANTYNOPOL, LYSOVKA, and other areas under IMMEDIATE THREAT in the DONETSK AND SUMY REGIONS.
   • Deploy additional anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS to counter Russian armored advances and air attacks.
   • Prepare for potential flanking maneuvers and ENCIRCLEMENT ATTEMPTS by Russian forces.
   • Strengthen fortifications and ESTABLISH SECONDARY DEFENSIVE LINES to slow down Russian advances.
   • Prepare evacuation plans for civilians and, if necessary, Ukrainian troops in threatened areas.
   • Prepare for a potential Russian offensive near Grayvoron

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS AND STRENGTHEN AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain high alert status for air defense systems across all affected regions, particularly in areas experiencing increased Russian air activity (Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy).
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations from airstrikes.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets if available, focusing on countering guided bombs and drones.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE TACTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Develop and implement counter-drone strategies to mitigate the threat of Russian drone tracking and targeting of Ukrainian drone control points.
   • Employ electronic warfare systems to jam or disrupt Russian drone communications.
   • Increase operational security for Ukrainian drone units, including frequent relocation of control points and use of camouflage.
   • Train drone operators in evasive maneuvers and counter-tracking techniques.

4. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN SUCCESS NEAR LOZOVA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence from multiple sources to CONFIRM the reported destruction of four Russian BMPs near Lozova.
   • Assess the impact of this reported success on Russian offensive capabilities in the area.

5. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO KOSTYANTYNIVKA AIRSTRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather information on casualties, damage, and the type of munitions used in the airstrike on Kostyantynivka.
   • Provide medical assistance to the injured and support to affected civilians.
   • Document the incident for potential war crimes investigations.
   • Assess the impact on civilian morale and IMPLEMENT MEASURES TO MITIGATE FEAR AND PANIC.

6. MONITOR UKRAINE-US RARE EARTH METALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track the progress of negotiations on the rare earth metals agreement.
   • Assess the potential benefits for Ukraine's defense capabilities and economic development.
   • Consider the implications for long-term strategic cooperation with the US.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES across multiple fronts and regions, INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, and CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS pose SIGNIFICANT THREATS. RAPID RESPONSE, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. The potential for a MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH in multiple areas remains a TOP CONCERN.