Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 14:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (13:56 UTC - 14:24 UTC)

1. CONFIRMATION OF ULAKLY CAPTURE AND CONTINUED FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Дневник Десантника (13:56 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:58 UTC), Z комитет + карта СВО (13:58 UTC), and ТАСС (14:15) all confirm the COMPLETE CAPTURE OF ULAKLY by Russian forces. Fighting is reported to have shifted west into nearby wooded areas. Операция Z and Z комитет also report continued assault on KONSTANTYNOPOL.
   • Assessment: This SOLIDIFIES PREVIOUS REPORTS of Russian advances in this area. The capture of Ulakly represents a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL GAIN for Russian forces, and the reported push towards Konstantynopol confirms a CONTINUED OFFENSIVE EFFORT in the DONETSK REGION. The shift of fighting to wooded areas suggests a POSSIBLE ATTEMPT BY UKRAINIAN FORCES TO ESTABLISH A NEW DEFENSIVE LINE or conduct GUERRILLA-STYLE RESISTANCE.

2. RUSSIAN DRONE TACTICS AND TARGETING OF UKRAINIAN DRONE CONTROL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (13:56 UTC) reports that Russian drone operators of the 27th Artillery Regiment near Predtechyne (Konstantinovka direction) tracked an empty Ukrainian heavy hexacopter drone back to its launch site and then destroyed the Ukrainian drone control point with FPV drones.
   • Assessment: This indicates a SOPHISTICATED RUSSIAN DRONE TACTIC of COUNTER-DRONE WARFARE. Tracking enemy drones to their control points allows for the NEUTRALIZATION OF BOTH THE DRONE AND ITS OPERATORS, significantly degrading Ukrainian drone capabilities. This also highlights the INTENSE DRONE WARFARE occurring on this front.

3. UKRAINIAN REPORT OF REPULSED ATTACK AND BMP DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків" (14:08) reports that the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment "ACHILLES," along with the 1st Presidential Brigade "Bureviy" and the 77th Airmobile Brigade, repelled a Russian assault near Lozova (Kupyansk direction) and destroyed four Russian BMPs.
   • Assessment: This, IF CONFIRMED, demonstrates EFFECTIVE UKRAINIAN DEFENSE and COORDINATION BETWEEN DIFFERENT UNITS. The destruction of four BMPs represents a SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF RUSSIAN ARMOR and likely DISRUPTED THE RUSSIAN ASSAULT. This needs to be VERIFIED with other sources.

4. GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:15 UTC) reports 53 combat clashes along the front line since the beginning of the day.
   • Key areas of activity include:
     • Kharkiv Direction: No Russian offensive actions, but airstrikes on Zolochiv.
     • Kupyansk Direction: Three Russian assaults repelled near Zahryzove, one ongoing.
     • Lyman Direction: Russian attacks near Kopanky, Novolyubivka, Terny, and Kolodyazi; four clashes, two ongoing.
     • Kramatorsk Direction: Three Russian attempts to advance near Vasyukivka repelled, fighting ongoing. Airstrikes on Kostyantynivka and Chasiv Yar.
     • Toretsk Direction: Eight Russian attacks near Dyliivka and Toretsk, six ongoing. Guided bomb strikes on Toretsk.
     • Pokrovsk Direction: 14 Russian attacks near Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Svyrydonivka, Promin, Pishchane, Serhiivka, Andriivka, and Ulakly; one ongoing.
     • Novopavlivka Direction: Three Russian assaults repelled near Kostyantynopil and Burlatske; one ongoing.
     • Huliaipole Direction: Airstrikes on Novopil and Huliaipole.
     • Orikhiv Direction: Two Russian attacks near Shcherbaky and Pyatykhatky.
     • Kursk Direction: Eight Russian attacks, 11 airstrikes with 15 guided bombs, and 268 artillery strikes.
   • Assessment: This provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of the INTENSE FIGHTING along multiple fronts. The report highlights the PERSISTENT RUSSIAN PRESSURE across various sectors, particularly in the DONETSK REGION (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kramatorsk). The report of numerous airstrikes, including guided bombs, indicates INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY.

5. REPORTED AIRSTRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (14:08 UTC) reports that Russia dropped four aerial bombs on Kostyantynivka, resulting in at least one death and seven injuries. 34 houses, an administrative building, three power lines, and three gas pipelines were damaged. One person is potentially trapped under rubble.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on civilian infrastructure, resulting in CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE. This further indicates Russia is using Air Attacks on civilian centers.

6. UKRAINE-US RARE EARTH METALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (14:23) reports that Ukraine and the US plan to finalize an agreement on rare earth metals this week, citing Bloomberg. Discussions are ongoing between Ukraine and Keith Kellogg, a special representative of Trump.
   • Assessment: This highlights STRATEGIC COOPERATION between Ukraine and the US, focusing on CRITICAL RESOURCES. Rare earth metals are essential for various technologies, including defense applications. This agreement could STRENGTHEN UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC AND DEFENSE CAPABILITIES in the long term, but also indicates a shift of focus on security to Europe.

7. RUSSIAN DISCUSSION OF WESTERN BUSINESS RETURN (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Басурин о главном (13:41), ТАСС (14:22) report Putin instructed the government to regulate the return of Western companies, prioritizing domestic producers within WTO rules. Lavrov stated returning companies should only be allowed in sectors where their potential departure wouldn't harm the Russian economy.
   • Assessment: This shows Russia is adapting to the sanctions and PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY. It also suggests a SELECTIVE APPROACH to re-engaging with Western businesses, aiming to minimize economic vulnerabilities. This reflects a BROADER STRATEGIC SHIFT towards economic independence.

8. RUSSIAN DISCUSSION ABOUT LEAVING UN (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Басурин о главном (13:59), reports that a group of republican congressmen introduced a bill for a full withdrawal from UN.
   • Assessment: This is a POLITICAL MANEUVER and PROPAGANDA.

9. ALEXANDER KHODAKOVSKY APPOINTED MAJOR GENERAL (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • WarGonzo (14:01), reports that Alexander Khodakovsky was appointed Major General.
   • Assessment: Propaganda and reward to a local commander.

10. STRELKOV'S LETTER (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

    • Стрелков Игорь Иванович (14:19), reports that a letter from Igor Strelkov does not expect an early end to the war.
    • Assessment: Propaganda and a grim prediction.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF ULAKLY AND CONTINUED OFFENSIVE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources confirm the Russian capture of Ulakly and ongoing fighting west of the settlement, with continued pressure towards Konstantynopol.
• INTENSE FIGHTING ALONG MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian General Staff reports 53 combat clashes, with significant Russian activity in the Donetsk region (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kramatorsk, Lyman).
• SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure due to a Russian airstrike.
• SOPHISTICATED RUSSIAN DRONE TACTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian drone operators tracking Ukrainian drones to their control points and destroying them.
• REPORTED SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DEFENSE NEAR LOZOVA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian assault and destroyed four BMPs.
• UKRAINE-US RARE EARTH METALS AGREEMENT IN PROGRESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Strategic cooperation on critical resources is being discussed.
• RUSSIA PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): Discussions on regulating the return of Western businesses and prioritizing domestic production.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. REINFORCE DEFENSES AND PREPARE FOR CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize reinforcement of Ukrainian defenses near KONSTANTYNOPOL and other areas under IMMEDIATE THREAT in the DONETSK REGION.
   • Deploy additional anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS to counter Russian armored advances and air attacks.
   • Prepare for potential flanking maneuvers and ENCIRCLEMENT ATTEMPTS by Russian forces.
   • Strengthen fortifications and ESTABLISH SECONDARY DEFENSIVE LINES to slow down Russian advances.
   • Prepare evacuation plans for civilians and, if necessary, Ukrainian troops in threatened areas.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS AND STRENGTHEN AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain high alert status for air defense systems across all affected regions, particularly in areas experiencing increased Russian air activity (Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy).
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations from airstrikes.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets if available, focusing on countering guided bombs and drones.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE TACTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Develop and implement counter-drone strategies to mitigate the threat of Russian drone tracking and targeting of Ukrainian drone control points.
   • Employ electronic warfare systems to jam or disrupt Russian drone communications.
   • Increase operational security for Ukrainian drone units, including frequent relocation of control points and use of camouflage.
   • Train drone operators in evasive maneuvers and counter-tracking techniques.

4. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN SUCCESS NEAR LOZOVA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence from multiple sources to CONFIRM the reported destruction of four Russian BMPs near Lozova.
   • Assess the impact of this reported success on Russian offensive capabilities in the area.

5. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO KOSTYANTYNIVKA AIRSTRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather information on casualties, damage, and the type of munitions used in the airstrike on Kostyantynivka.
   • Provide medical assistance to the injured and support to affected civilians.
   • Document the incident for potential war crimes investigations.
   • Assess the impact on civilian morale and IMPLEMENT MEASURES TO MITIGATE FEAR AND PANIC.

6. MONITOR UKRAINE-US RARE EARTH METALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track the progress of negotiations on the rare earth metals agreement.
   • Assess the potential benefits for Ukraine's defense capabilities and economic development.
   • Consider the implications for long-term strategic cooperation with the US.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the Donetsk region, INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, and CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS pose SIGNIFICANT THREATS. RAPID RESPONSE, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. The potential for a MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH in the DONETSK REGION remains a TOP CONCERN.