Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 13:54 UTC

Changes and New Information (13:25 UTC - 13:54 UTC)

1. CABLE DAMAGE IN THE BALTIC SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (13:26 UTC) reports another cable break in the Baltic Sea, near the Swedish island of Gotland, citing SVT television channel.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it could indicate SABOTAGE or ACCIDENTAL DAMAGE. Given the strategic importance of undersea cables for communications and data transfer, any damage could have SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS for REGIONAL SECURITY AND CONNECTIVITY. The location near Gotland, a strategically important island in the Baltic Sea, INCREASES THE CONCERN.

2. EU PLANS FOR MOLDOVAN INTEGRATION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (13:26 UTC) reports the EU will create a new tool for integrating Moldova, allocating €385 million in grants and €1.5 billion in loans between 2025 and 2027. They claim this is aimed at buying political loyalty rather than economic development.
   • Assessment: This report reflects a PRO-RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE, framing EU aid to Moldova as a POLITICAL MANEUVER rather than genuine support. While the financial figures require verification, the EU's interest in closer ties with Moldova is WELL-ESTABLISHED. This development has LIMITED DIRECT IMPACT on the military situation in Ukraine, but HIGHLIGHTS THE BROADER GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT of the conflict.

3. NEW PHOTOS OF UKRAINIAN "TREMBITA" MISSILE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (13:26 UTC) publishes new photos of the Ukrainian "Trembita" cruise missile, citing Deputy Prime Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov. The reported specifications include:
     • Loaded weight: 100 kg
     • Warhead mass: 20 kg (thermobaric or high-explosive fragmentation)
     • Range: over 140 km
     • Speed: over 400 km/h
     • Altitude: maximum 2000 m, minimum 30 m
     • Fuel: A-92 and A-95 gasoline
   • Assessment: These photos and specifications CONFIRM THE DEVELOPMENT of the "Trembita" missile and provide MORE DETAIL about its capabilities. The claimed range and speed, if accurate, suggest a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT NEW WEAPON for Ukraine, capable of STRIKING TARGETS AT CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE. The use of readily available gasoline as fuel SUGGESTS A FOCUS ON COST-EFFECTIVENESS AND EASE OF PRODUCTION.

4. PUTIN ON RUSSIAN WEAPONRY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (13:27) Putin said that the warheads of the hypersonic complex "Oreshnik" are capable of withstanding temperatures comparable to the surface of the Sun.
   • Assessment: This is likely PROPAGANDA and a DISPLAY OF STRENGTH.

5. SOLDIER ARRESTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (13:28) reports that Evgeny Zamanov who was arrested for allegedly deserting the army.
   • Assessment: PROPAGANDA, aimed at discouraging Russian soldiers from leaving their positions.

6. RUSSIAN SOLDIERS GOING TO UKRAINE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, PRO-UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • *БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС* (13:29) claims that the subscribers of the Telegram channel DSHRG Rusich are going to fight in Ukraine.
     

   • Assessment: PROPAGANDA and a MORALE BOOST.

7. RUSSIAN DRONE SWARMS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:16, 13:31) the Ministry of Digital Transformation announced the appearance of drone swarms this year.
   • Assessment: Indicates a further technological innovation.

8. RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY AND AIR DEFENSE WARNINGS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:32 UTC) reports a high-speed target heading south towards Zaporizhzhia.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (13:33 UTC) announces an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (13:43 UTC) cancels the air alert.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:39 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:47 UTC) reports continued activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast and southeast, with a threat of air-launched weapons in frontline areas.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM ONGOING RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and a CONTINUED THREAT OF AIR STRIKES, particularly in ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SUMY OBLASTS. The reported use of guided aerial bombs SUGGESTS PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS are being employed. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS in these regions.

9. UKRAINIAN WEAPONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (13:33) says that the "Bulava" is a Ukrainian UAV developed using the same model as the Russian "Lancet".
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (13:33) shows a ground-based kamikaze drone that uses TM-62 mines.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (13:33) presents the "Wolly 7.62", a modern remote-controlled combat module designed for combat and reconnaissance.
   • Assessment: Further confirmation of the continued Ukrainian development and implementation of new weaponry.

10. MACRON CALLS FOR INCREASED MILITARY EFFORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (13:41 UTC) reports French President Emmanuel Macron called on EU partners to "increase military efforts," specifically raising defense spending to a possible 5% of GDP due to the threat from Russia and recent statements by Trump.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A GROWING CONCERN within Europe about RELIANCE ON US SECURITY GUARANTEES and a PUSH FOR GREATER EUROPEAN DEFENSE AUTONOMY. Macron's call for increased defense spending is SIGNIFICANT and could lead to MAJOR SHIFTS in European defense policy.

11. POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (13:42) claims that a Russian UAZ-452 van has been destroyed by a Ukrainian FPV drone.
• Assessment: Likely a morale boost.

12. EU SANCTIONS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (13:43) reports that the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 27 EU countries will be approving the 16th package of sanctions against Russia.
    • Assessment: Confirms the continuing EU efforts to economically isolate Russia.

13. UKRAINIAN DRONE SHOT DOWN (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • STERNENKO (13:44) reports that Ukrainian forces shot down another Russian Lancet kamikaze drone.
    • Assessment: Likely propaganda and a morale boost.

14. SPEAKER JOHNSON ON UKRAINIAN AID (CONFIRMED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Alex Parker Returns (13:45) reports a US conference claiming no new aid for Ukraine in the foreseeable future. * Assessment: Reinforces the US political divide regarding further support for Ukraine.

15. UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• РБК-Україна (13:45) says that Keith Kellogg has made his first statement after meeting with Zelensky.
  • Assessment: Confirms continued communication between Ukraine and the US.

16. RUSSIAN ADVANCES (CONFIRMED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCES):

*   *Два майора* and *Kotsnews* (13:47, 13:50 UTC) report Russian forces have liberated Ulakly, with flags raised in various parts of the settlement.  Geolocation coordinates provided: 47.99875163155192, 37.101254971469864; 47.99761441001141, 37.08589746575295; 47.996399784922914, 37.073601197336366.  They report further advances south towards Konstantynopol, having already approached it from Andreevka. They also report that the Ukrainian soldiers were asking for an evacuation but were refused.

*   **Assessment:** This *CONFIRMS* the *RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF ULAKLY*, a *SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL GAIN* for Russian forces. The claimed advances towards Konstantynopol, *IF VERIFIED*, represent a *CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT* in the *DONETSK REGION*. The reported Ukrainian request for evacuation and subsequent denial, *IF TRUE*, suggests *LOW MORALE AND POTENTIAL COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES* in the area.

17. RUSSIAN MILITARY REPORT (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * MoD Russia (13:51) released a report about repelling a Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region. * Assessment: Likely propaganda, with the numbers impossible to independently confirm.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED capture of ULAKLY and REPORTED advances towards KONSTANTYNOPOL represent SIGNIFICANT GAINS for Russian forces.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY AND THREAT OF STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports confirm ongoing Russian air activity and a threat of strikes, particularly in ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SUMY OBLASTS.
• UKRAINIAN "TREMBITA" MISSILE DEVELOPMENT CONFIRMED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): New photos and specifications provide more detail about this POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT NEW WEAPON.
• POTENTIAL CABLE DAMAGE IN BALTIC SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of another cable break near Gotland raise concerns about POTENTIAL SABOTAGE and REGIONAL SECURITY.
• MACRON CALLS FOR INCREASED EUROPEAN DEFENSE SPENDING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This reflects a GROWING CONCERN about RELIANCE ON US SECURITY GUARANTEES.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND REINFORCE DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM the extent of Russian advances near KONSTANTYNOPOL.
   • Assess the strategic significance of this location and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTER-OFFENSIVES.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the DONETSK REGION, prioritizing areas under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
   • Prepare for potential encirclement or flanking maneuvers by Russian forces.
   • Prepare evacuation plans for Ukrainian troops and civilians in threatened areas.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain high alert status for air defense systems, particularly in ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SUMY OBLASTS.
   • Continue to monitor drone and missile activity.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.

3. INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL CABLE DAMAGE IN BALTIC SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence to determine the cause of the reported cable break near Gotland.
   • Assess the potential impact on regional communications and security.
   • Coordinate with allies to monitor the situation and share information.

4. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF "TREMBITA" MISSILE DEVELOPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather further intelligence on the "Trembita" missile's capabilities and potential deployment.
   • Assess its potential impact on the battlefield and develop COUNTERMEASURES if necessary.
   • Consider the potential for mass production and its implications for Ukrainian offensive capabilities.

5. MONITOR EUROPEAN DEFENSE POLICY DEVELOPMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track developments related to Macron's call for increased European defense spending.
   • Assess the potential impact on European military capabilities and COORDINATE WITH ALLIES to ensure a UNIFIED RESPONSE to the evolving security situation.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY, and POTENTIAL CABLE DAMAGE require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION AND ACTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. The potential for a MAJOR SHIFT in the DONETSK REGION due to the RUSSIAN ADVANCES is a TOP CONCERN.