Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 13:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (12:55 UTC - 13:24 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES REPORT 20-21 FEB (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (12:56 UTC) reports that Russian forces struck Ukrainian railway infrastructure in the Cherkasy region. Specifically, in Zolotonosha, they claim to have destroyed a hangar with spare parts for armored vehicles, warehouses with repair equipment, a workshop with lathes and welding machines, and railway tracks and the 27.5 kV contact network at Zolotonosha station.
   • Assessment: This report CONFIRMS continued RUSSIAN EFFORTS to TARGET UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS AND REPAIR CAPABILITIES. The claimed destruction of railway infrastructure and repair facilities, IF TRUE, would SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER Ukrainian ability to MOVE TROOPS AND EQUIPMENT in the region and REPAIR DAMAGED VEHICLES. This REINFORCES the broader pattern of RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KRASNOARMEISK/POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (13:01 UTC) reports positional fighting near Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk) and Russian advances of up to 1 km on the southern approach to the city, with new positions established in the northern part of Lysovka. They also report a Ukrainian attack on a Russian forward position in Lysivka's residential area. Geolocation coordinates provided: 48.22583, 37.25286.
   • Assessment: This report indicates CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING and RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KRASNOARMEISK/POKROVSK area. The claimed 1 km advance and establishment of new positions, IF VERIFIED, represent a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL GAIN for Russian forces, INCREASING PRESSURE on Ukrainian defenses in the region. The reported Ukrainian attack suggests ONGOING EFFORTS by Ukrainian forces to CONTEST RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

3. RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CONTROL OF ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (13:19 UTC) reports Russian forces raising flags in various parts of Ulakly, claiming "confident control" of the settlement. They report an expansion of the Russian control zone in the village by at least 800 meters. Geolocation coordinates provided: 47.997612, 37.085940.
   • Assessment: This report STRONGLY SUGGESTS that RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE TAKEN CONTROL of ULAKLY. The raising of flags and claimed expansion of control, IF CONFIRMED, represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a LOSS FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES. This REINFORCES the pattern of RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the DONETSK REGION.

4. UKRAINIAN MILITARY VEHICLE DELIVERIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (13:01 UTC) reports the delivery of 12 vehicles (10 pickups and 2 vans) to 5 brigades on the Zaporizhzhia front, in cooperation with local communities.
   • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (13:03 UTC) reports the delivery of 14 pickup trucks to air defense forces in the Kharkiv region, 10 purchased with support from "Naftogaz Ukraine" and 4 from regional communities.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM CONTINUED EFFORTS by Ukrainian authorities and civilian organizations to SUPPORT MILITARY OPERATIONS by PROVIDING ESSENTIAL EQUIPMENT. The delivery of vehicles ENHANCES MOBILITY AND LOGISTICAL CAPABILITIES for Ukrainian forces, particularly in the ZAPORIZHZHIA AND KHARKIV REGIONS. This HIGHLIGHTS the IMPORTANCE OF CIVIL-MILITARY COOPERATION in sustaining the Ukrainian war effort.

5. UKRAINIAN "TREMBITA" MISSILE DISPLAYED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (13:07) shows a picture of the "Trembita" missile.
   • Assessment: This indicates POTENTIAL NEW WEAPONRY being developed or deployed by Ukraine. The "Trembita" missile.

6. FRENCH FIGHTER INTERCEPTION OF RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (13:09) reports that French Rafale fighter jets intercepted two Russian aircraft (Il-78 and Il-20M) near the coast of Latvia due to non-compliance with international aviation rules.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMATION of HEIGHTENED TENSIONS and INCREASED AERIAL ACTIVITY in the Baltic region.

7. UKRAINIAN DRONE SWARMS ANNOUNCED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Оперативний ЗСУ (13:16) says that the Ministry of Digital Transformation announced the appearance of drone swarms this year. * Assessment: Indicates a further technological innovation.

8. RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (13:16) offers a commentary on the ongoing war, predicting its continuation until a final agreement is reached. They anticipate increased escalation before the war's end and emphasize the need for vigilance. They also caution against trusting Western guarantees, citing past broken promises.
   • Assessment: This commentary reflects a RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the conflict, highlighting DISTRUST OF THE WEST and a COMMITMENT TO CONTINUED MILITARY ACTION until a favorable agreement is achieved.

9. POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • ASTRA reports a soldier, for refusing to purchase drones with his own funds, was shot and kidnapped.
     

   • ASTRA reports that a soldier who left his military unit to file a complaint with the procuratorate was apprehended and possibly sent to the front lines.
   • Офіс Генерального прокурора (13:00) reports that two Russian generals have been notified of suspicion of ecocide and violation of the laws and customs of war for allegedly ordering the destruction of the Oskil reservoir dam in the Kharkiv region.
   • Assessment: While these reports require independent verification, they HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES and HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS on BOTH SIDES OF THE CONFLICT. If confirmed, these incidents could have LEGAL AND POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES and further FUEL INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): CONFIRMED Russian advances near KRASNOARMEISK/POKROVSK and REPORTED capture of ULAKLY represent SIGNIFICANT GAINS for Russian forces in the DONETSK REGION.
• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES TARGET UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED strikes on railway infrastructure in the CHERKASY REGION HIGHLIGHT continued RUSSIAN EFFORTS to DEGRADE UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
• UKRAINIAN MILITARY RECEIVES VEHICLE SUPPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Deliveries of vehicles to Ukrainian forces in the ZAPORIZHIA AND KHARKIV REGIONS ENHANCE MOBILITY AND LOGISTICAL CAPABILITIES.
• POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Allegations of ABUSE OF POWER and DESTRUCTION OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE raise serious concerns and require IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
• RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS CONTINUE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): RUSSIAN COMMENTARY emphasizes DISTRUST OF THE WEST and a COMMITMENT TO CONTINUED MILITARY ACTION.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND REINFORCE DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Russian capture of ULAKLY and the extent of advances near KRASNOARMEISK/POKROVSK.
   • Assess the strategic significance of these locations and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTER-OFFENSIVES.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the DONETSK REGION, prioritizing areas under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
   • Prepare for potential encirclement or flanking maneuvers by Russian forces.

2. ADDRESS RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES ON LOGISTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the damage to railway infrastructure in the CHERKASY REGION and IMPLEMENT REPAIR EFFORTS as quickly as possible.
   • Develop alternative transportation routes and DISTRIBUTE SUPPLIES AND EQUIPMENT to MITIGATE the impact of damaged infrastructure.
   • Increase air defense around CRITICAL LOGISTICAL HUBS to PREVENT further strikes.

3. INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Launch thorough and independent investigations into the reported ABUSE OF POWER against Russian soldiers and the DESTRUCTION OF THE OSKIL RESERVOIR DAM.
   • Gather evidence and IDENTIFY RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUALS.
   • Prepare for potential legal action and COORDINATE WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS to ensure ACCOUNTABILITY.

4. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AND PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Monitor Russian military activity closely for signs of INCREASED OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS or NEW WEAPON DEPLOYMENTS.
   • Maintain a high state of readiness for Ukrainian forces across all fronts.
   • Continue diplomatic efforts to SECURE INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT and DETER further Russian aggression.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, CONTINUED AIRSTRIKES, and REPORTS OF POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION AND ACTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL.