Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 09:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (08:54 UTC - 09:24 UTC)

1. U.S. CONGRESSIONAL AND UNHCR DELEGATION VISIT TO ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (08:56 UTC) reports a visit by a U.S. Congressional delegation and representatives of the UNHCR to Zaporizhzhia. They met with the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional State Administration, Ivan Fedorov, to discuss the situation in the region, the life of frontline communities, energy independence, and further cooperation. Fedorov expressed gratitude for the support, and the U.S. delegation reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This visit is SIGNIFICANT in light of the recent reports of a potential shift in U.S. policy. The visit, and particularly the statement of continued support, MAY COUNTERACT some of the negative implications of the reported U.S. reluctance to support the UN resolution. This needs to be CAREFULLY MONITORED to assess if it represents a genuine reaffirmation of U.S. commitment or simply a diplomatic gesture. The focus on "energy independence" is also NOTEWORTHY in the context of ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.

2. RUSSIAN DRONE SHOT DOWN NEAR POLOGI (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (08:59 UTC) reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down in the air near Pologi, Zaporizhzhia region.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE in the Zaporizhzhia region. The location near Pologi suggests Ukrainian attempts at reconnaissance or targeting in that area.

3. BUDANOV PREDICTS RUSSIAN VICTORY DECLARATION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Старше Эдды (09:00 UTC) reports that Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, claims Russia will declare victory in the Special Military Operation before February 24, 2025.
   • Assessment: This is POSSIBLY PROPAGANDA OR A PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATION. Budanov's previous prediction of Ukraine taking Crimea in 2023 was incorrect. This new prediction may be intended to DEMORALIZE the Ukrainian population and UNDERMINE international support, or to PROMPT greater Western assistance by suggesting an impending Russian victory. IT MUST BE TREATED WITH SKEPTICISM.

4. UKRAINIAN FORCES TRAINING (REPORTED, BOTH SIDES):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (09:00 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces are actively training mobilized personnel, including at the 233rd combined arms training ground in Mala Lyubasha, Rivne region (156th Separate Mechanized Brigade) and the 37th combined arms training ground near Zhytomyr (tank crews of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade). They claim drone surveillance is being used to prevent desertion.
   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (09:03 UTC) shows images and reports on hand-to-hand combat instructor training, emphasizing the development of psychological resilience.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM CONTINUED EFFORTS BY BOTH SIDES TO STRENGTHEN THEIR FORCES. The Ukrainian reports emphasize the importance of psychological resilience, likely in response to the ongoing stress and intensity of the conflict. The Russian report of drone surveillance suggests potential issues with morale and desertion within the Ukrainian ranks, although this could be propaganda.

5. SWEDISH INVESTIGATION OF POTENTIAL CABLE DAMAGE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (09:04 UTC) reports Swedish authorities are investigating.
  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED OPERATIONS to disrupt the Baltic region.

6. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (09:04 UTC) shows a video of a Ka-52 helicopter reportedly operating in the Kursk region, providing air support to Russian ground forces.
   • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, and the use of air power by Russian forces in that area. This adds weight to Putin's earlier statement about Ukrainian forces crossing the border.

7. DRONE ATTACKS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Colonelcassad (09:04 UTC) reports that drone operators of the "Shaman" unit (1455th regiment) destroyed a Ukrainian platoon stronghold and a tank east of Novoandriivka, Zaporizhzhia region. * Assessment: The drone attacks showcase tactical warfare.
   • STERNENKO (09:12 UTC) shows video of Ukrainian forces reportedly shooting down Russian FPV drones ("Molniya") and reconnaissance drones (Zala and Supercam).
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED DRONE USE by both forces.

8. ALLEGED DESTRUCTION OF FOREIGN MERCENARIES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (09:15 UTC) shows a video claiming to show the destruction of a group of foreign mercenaries near Kostiantynivka during an attempted evacuation.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY PROPAGANDA and REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The presence of "foreign mercenaries" is a common Russian narrative. The video itself DOES SHOW A STRIKE on a vehicle, but the identity of those targeted cannot be confirmed from the provided information.

9. DAMAGE TO BRIDGE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (09:11 UTC) claims that a bridge was damaged.
  • Assessment: This is a STRATEGIC ATTACK.

Updated Situation Summary

• DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The visit of the U.S. Congressional and UNHCR delegation to Zaporizhzhia MAY SIGNAL A CONTINUED COMMITMENT from at least some elements within the U.S. government, despite reports of wavering support at the diplomatic level. However, reports indicate that the US deleted "pro-Ukrainian" language from a G7 statement.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides continue to EXTENSIVELY USE DRONES for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Reports from both sides confirm ongoing drone activity in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of Russian air support (Ka-52 helicopters) in the Kursk region ADD WEIGHT to previous reports of fighting there and Putin's statement about a Ukrainian incursion.
• TRAINING OF UKRAINIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm ongoing training efforts by Ukrainian forces, focusing on both physical and psychological resilience.
• BUDANOV'S PREDICTION OF RUSSIAN VICTORY DECLARATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): This must be TREATED WITH CAUTION as potential propaganda or a psychological operation.
• POSSIBLE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN WESTERN FORCES (REPORTED): Alex Parker Returns (09:23 UTC) claims Macron and Merz changed their position on troop deployments and weapons.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. CLARIFY U.S. POSITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Leverage the visit of the U.S. Congressional delegation to Zaporizhzhia to SEEK FURTHER CLARIFICATION on the U.S. position regarding support for Ukraine.
   • Engage with members of the delegation to understand their assessment of the situation and their commitment to continued aid.
   • Continue high-level diplomatic efforts with the U.S. and other international partners to REINFORCE THE IMPORTANCE OF UNIFIED SUPPORT for Ukraine.

2. MAINTAIN AND ENHANCE DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue to prioritize drone operations and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES against Russian drone attacks.

3. ADDRESS SITUATION IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Gather intelligence on the situation in the Kursk region, VERIFYING THE EXTENT OF FIGHTING and the nature of any Ukrainian involvement.
   • Maintain defensive readiness along the border.

4. VERIFY REPORT OF FOREIGN MERCENARY CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Attempt to verify the TASS report of the destruction of foreign mercenaries near Kostiantynivka. Utilize all available intelligence sources to confirm or debunk this claim.

5. COUNTER BUDANOV'S PREDICTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Develop a communication strategy to COUNTER Budanov's prediction of a Russian victory declaration, EMPHASIZING UKRAINIAN STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE.
   • Highlight continued international support to REASSURE the Ukrainian population and MAINTAIN MORALE.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The new information reinforces the urgency of existing priorities and highlights the continued importance of drone warfare, the complex situation in the Kursk region, and the need to clarify the U.S. position on continued support.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The potential for a SHIFT IN U.S. POLICY remains a MAJOR CONCERN, although the visit of the Congressional delegation offers a POTENTIAL COUNTER-NARRATIVE. The CONTINUED FIGHTING IN KURSK and the ONGOING DRONE WARFARE across multiple fronts underscore the INTENSITY OF THE CONFLICT. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS, AND CAREFUL DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING are ESSENTIAL.