Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 08:54 UTC

Changes and New Information (08:24 UTC - 08:54 UTC)

1. ATTACK ON POLICE VEHICLE IN KUPIANSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (08:26 UTC) reports a Russian drone attack (likely "Molniya") on a police vehicle in Kupiansk at 07:55 UTC, resulting in three police officers suffering concussions.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:34) also reports the incident.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A DELIBERATE TARGETING OF LAW ENFORCEMENT by Russian forces in Kupiansk. This follows a pattern of ESCALATING ATTACKS in the region, previously targeting civilian infrastructure. This attack FURTHER UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN CONTROL and HINDERS EFFORTS TO MAINTAIN ORDER in the area. HIGH PRIORITY to INCREASE SECURITY for law enforcement personnel.

2. ATTEMPTED TERRORIST ATTACKS IN KYIV REGION (FOILED, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:25 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (08:27) report the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and National Police have detained two individuals in the Kyiv region who were allegedly preparing terrorist attacks. They reportedly collaborated with Russia to target police stations, TCC (Territorial Centers of Recruitment and Social Support), and prosecutor's offices, planning to use homemade explosives hidden in a fire extinguisher.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS continued Russian efforts to CONDUCT SABOTAGE AND TERRORIST ACTIVITIES within Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure and government institutions. The SBU's success in foiling this plot is SIGNIFICANT and highlights the ONGOING THREAT of internal subversion. HIGH PRIORITY to MAINTAIN VIGILANCE and STRENGTHEN COUNTERINTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS.

3. DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE IN POLTAVA REGION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (08:52 UTC) reports a Russian strike on the Poltava region, damaging civilian buildings.
   • Воин DV (08:32) claims Geran drones struck an oil facility in Karlovka.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRIKES on civilian infrastructure.

4. DRONE STRIKE ON NOVA KAKHOVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Mash на Донбассе (08:35) reports a drone strike in Nova Kakhovka, injuring one man.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED OPERATIONS on the Kherson front.

5. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR ANDRIIVKA AND ULAKLIV (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (08:35) reports Russian advances near Andriivka and Ulakliv. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED OPERATIONS on the Donetsk front.

6. REPAIR WORK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (08:36) shows images of repair work. * Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS MAINTENANCE.

7. DRONE ATTACK BY 30TH MOTORIZED RIFLE REGIMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (08:50) reports that the reconnaissance company of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment used FPV drones to attack Ukrainian armored vehicles. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED DRONE USE.

8. US WON'T SUPPORT UKRAINIAN RESOLUTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (08:37) claims that the US won't be supporting a resolution.
   • Assessment: This supports PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS OF A SHIFTING US POSITION.

9. UKRAINIAN FORCES OPERATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   *    *ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦* (08:48) shows footage of operations on the Kharkiv front.
       *   **Assessment:** This *CONFIRMS CONTINUED OPERATIONS*.
   

Updated Situation Summary

• DIPLOMATIC SHIFT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The US is ACTIVELY REMOVING PRO-UKRAINIAN LANGUAGE from international statements and is UNDECIDED ON SUPPORTING A UN RESOLUTION. China's statement supporting a US-Russia "consensus" indicates a POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL REALIGNMENT that may be unfavorable to Ukraine. Reports indicate the US won't support a Ukrainian resolution.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides are EXTENSIVELY USING DRONES for reconnaissance, targeting, and increasingly, logistics. Russia is ESCALATING ATTACKS ON COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE, targeting a Starlink terminal. Russia's 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment conducted drone attacks.
• FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): Reports and images suggest CONTINUED FIGHTING in the Kursk region, with casualties reported.
• RUSSIAN AIR RECONNAISSANCE (HIGH PRIORITY): The Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis is performing reconnaissance close to Ukraine.
• ATTACKS IN KUPIANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russian attacks continue, with law enforcement targeted.
• TERRORIST ATTEMPTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Ukrainian forces foiled attempts in the Kyiv region.
• ADVANCES IN DONETSK (REPORTED): Russian forces are advancing near Andriivka and Ulakliv.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENT DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Seek immediate clarification from US officials regarding the removal of pro-Ukrainian language from the G7 statement, the delay in deciding on UN resolution support, and the nature of the alleged "consensus" with Russia.
   • Engage in high-level diplomatic efforts with ALL G7 MEMBERS and other international partners to REASSERT THE IMPORTANCE OF STRONG SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
   • Explore alternative diplomatic avenues to maintain international pressure on Russia.
   • Prepare for a potential shift in the international landscape and ADJUST UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY accordingly.

2. MAINTAIN AND ENHANCE DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue to prioritize drone operations for reconnaissance, targeting, and logistical support.
   • Develop countermeasures against Russian drone attacks, including electronic warfare and air defense.
   • Explore ways to mitigate the impact of adverse weather on drone operations.
   • Secure alternative communication infrastructure to reduce reliance on potentially vulnerable systems like Starlink.

3. ADDRESS SITUATION IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue to gather intelligence on the situation in the Kursk region to verify the extent of fighting and the affiliation of casualties.
   • Maintain defensive readiness along the border and prepare for potential incursions.
   • Counter Russian propaganda efforts aimed at exploiting the situation.

4. MONITOR RUSSIAN AIR RECONNAISSANCE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor Russian reconnaissance, and be aware of the capabilities of the Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis.

5. COUNTER DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Proactively address claims about casualties and US policy shifts to prevent demoralization and maintain public support.

6. INCREASED PROTECTION FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Provide increased protection and security to law enforcement personnel.
     

7. COUNTERINTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Increase efforts to counter Russian intelligence operations.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The new information reinforces the urgency of existing priorities and highlights the critical need for immediate diplomatic action to address the potentially unfavorable shift in the international landscape.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND UNSTABLE. The SHIFTING US POLICY and the POTENTIAL ALIGNMENT OF US, RUSSIAN, AND CHINESE POSITIONS represent a MAJOR THREAT to Ukraine's interests. The CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE and FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION, and attacks in KUPIANSK, POLTAVA, and NOVA KAKHOVKA further complicate the situation. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION, particularly on the diplomatic front, is ESSENTIAL. The FOILED TERRORIST ATTEMPT also requires INCREASED VIGILANCE.