Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 08:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (07:54 UTC - 08:24 UTC)

1. CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE AND FPV STRIKES (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Два майора (07:54 UTC) shows video of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment using drones for both reconnaissance and logistical support (delivering supplies to the front line) in the Zaporizhzhia front.
   • STERNENKO (07:54 UTC) provides video demonstrating ongoing Ukrainian drone operations, targeting enemy personnel and equipment. Claims "BARAN'RUSNY" unit is active, indicating a specific unit involved.
   • Народная милиция ДНР (07:59 UTC) shows video of a successful drone strike against a Ukrainian mortar position, claiming it significantly weakened enemy firepower and facilitated troop advancement.
   • Дневник Десантника (08:14 UTC) shows video of Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Starlink terminal and positions in Kharkiv Oblast using attack drones.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:23 UTC) shows video of Ukrainian marines (36th Marine Brigade) conducting strikes in the Kursk region.
   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (08:08 UTC) shows FPV drones from the "Black Bars" brigade hitting a Bradley fighting vehicle.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD USE OF DRONES by BOTH SIDES for RECONNAISSANCE, TARGETING, AND LOGISTICAL SUPPORT. The destruction of a Starlink terminal highlights the ESCALATION OF TARGETING COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE. The video from Два майора demonstrating drone-based logistics is NOTABLE, showing adaptation to battlefield challenges. Ukrainian operations in Kursk region represent a CONTINUED EFFORT TO STRIKE ACROSS THE BORDER.

2. CASUALTIES REPORTED IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (08:13 UTC) shows multiple images of deceased soldiers, claiming they are casualties in the Kursk region, with commentary questioning Ukrainian political and military developments.

   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE REPORTS OF FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION, though the affiliation of the casualties shown is not definitively confirmed by this source alone (blue arm bands visible). The commentary reflects INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS, aiming to sow doubt and question Ukrainian resolve. The images themselves provide GRIM EVIDENCE OF ONGOING COMBAT and its human cost.

3. US REMOVES "PRO-UKRAINIAN" LANGUAGE FROM G7 STATEMENT (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (08:15 UTC), РБК-Україна (07:59 UTC), and Alex Parker Returns (08:08 UTC) report that the US has removed "pro-Ukrainian" language from a G7 statement on the anniversary of the invasion, reportedly to avoid hindering negotiations with Russia. РБК-Україна cites The New York Times.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and FURTHER CONFIRMS A SHIFT IN US POLICY. Removing language identifying Russia as the aggressor or Ukraine as the victim represents a SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE from previous positions. This DIRECTLY UNDERMINES UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC STANDING and SIGNALS A WILLINGNESS TO ACCOMMODATE RUSSIAN INTERESTS. PRIORITY to UNDERSTAND THE FULL IMPLICATIONS of this change and ADJUST DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY ACCORDINGLY.

4. US CONSIDERING SUPPORT FOR UN RESOLUTION ON UKRAINE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (08:08 UTC) reports, citing John Kelly, political coordinator of the US mission to the UN, that the US is still deciding whether to support a UN resolution on Ukraine.

   • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS UNCERTAINTY in US policy and a POTENTIAL LACK OF COMMITMENT to strong international support for Ukraine. The delay in decision-making is CONCERNING and REINFORCES THE PERCEPTION OF A SHIFTING US STANCE.

5. CLAIM OF US-RUSSIA "CONSENSUS" SUPPORTED BY CHINA (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (07:55 UTC) reports that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated China supports a "consensus" reached between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine.

   • Assessment: This is a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. It suggests a POTENTIAL ALIGNMENT of US, Russian, and Chinese positions THAT MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE TO UKRAINE. The lack of detail about the "consensus" is DEEPLY CONCERNING and requires URGENT INVESTIGATION. This could indicate a MAJOR SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE regarding the conflict.

6. NATO CONSIDERING OPERATIONS ON SEA BED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

   • ТАСС (07:57 UTC) stated that NATO is creating a strategy to fight on the bottom of the sea.
   • Assessment: This is a relevant development.

7. TRUMP OFFICIAL CLAIMS "FRIENDSHIP" WITH PUTIN (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (08:22 UTC) reports that Steve Witkoff, a special representative of Trump, claimed to have developed a "friendship" with Putin during a trip to Moscow to retrieve a US prisoner. * Assessment: This supports PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS OF A SHIFTING US POSITION.

8. MORTAR POSITION DESTROYED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Народная милиция ДНР (07:59) claims that Russian forces destroyed a mortar position, and shared a video.
   • Assessment: This confirms that operations CONTINUE.

9. RUSSIAN BOMBARDIER PLANE FLIES OVER UKRAINIAN BORDER (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (08:20) claims that the plane can perform deep reconnaissance. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING RECONNAISSANCE.

10. UKRAINIAN CASUALTY NUMBERS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (08:23) claims that 1 in 10 of mobilized soldiers have died.

    • **Assessment:** This *SHOULD BE MONITORED*.
      

Updated Situation Summary

• DIPLOMATIC SHIFT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The US is ACTIVELY REMOVING PRO-UKRAINIAN LANGUAGE from international statements and is UNDECIDED ON SUPPORTING A UN RESOLUTION. China's statement supporting a US-Russia "consensus" indicates a POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL REALIGNMENT that may be unfavorable to Ukraine.
• CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides are EXTENSIVELY USING DRONES for reconnaissance, targeting, and increasingly, logistics. Russia is ESCALATING ATTACKS ON COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE, targeting a Starlink terminal.
• FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): Reports and images suggest CONTINUED FIGHTING in the Kursk region, with casualties reported.
• RUSSIAN AIR RECONNAISSANCE (HIGH PRIORITY): The Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis is performing reconnaissance close to Ukraine.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENT DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Seek immediate clarification from US officials regarding the removal of pro-Ukrainian language from the G7 statement, the delay in deciding on UN resolution support, and the nature of the alleged "consensus" with Russia.
   • Engage in high-level diplomatic efforts with ALL G7 MEMBERS and other international partners to REASSERT THE IMPORTANCE OF STRONG SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
   • Explore alternative diplomatic avenues to maintain international pressure on Russia.
   • Prepare for a potential shift in the international landscape and ADJUST UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY accordingly.

2. MAINTAIN AND ENHANCE DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue to prioritize drone operations for reconnaissance, targeting, and logistical support.
   • Develop countermeasures against Russian drone attacks, including electronic warfare and air defense.
   • Explore ways to mitigate the impact of adverse weather on drone operations.
   • Secure alternative communication infrastructure to reduce reliance on potentially vulnerable systems like Starlink.

3. ADDRESS SITUATION IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue to gather intelligence on the situation in the Kursk region to verify the extent of fighting and the affiliation of casualties.
   • Maintain defensive readiness along the border and prepare for potential incursions.
   • Counter Russian propaganda efforts aimed at exploiting the situation.

4. MONITOR RUSSIAN AIR RECONNAISSANCE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor Russian reconnaissance, and be aware of the capabilities of the Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis.

5. COUNTER DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Proactively address claims about casualties and US policy shifts to prevent demoralization and maintain public support.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The new information reinforces the urgency of existing priorities and highlights the critical need for immediate diplomatic action to address the potentially unfavorable shift in the international landscape.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND UNSTABLE. The SHIFTING US POLICY and the POTENTIAL ALIGNMENT OF US, RUSSIAN, AND CHINESE POSITIONS represent a MAJOR THREAT to Ukraine's interests. The CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE and FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION further complicate the situation. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION, particularly on the diplomatic front, is ESSENTIAL.