Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 20:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:55 UTC - 20:24 UTC)

1. CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS ON KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:03 UTC) reports multiple groups of attack drones moving through Kyiv Oblast towards Zhytomyr Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:05) reports groups of drones through Sumy and Chernihiv region, headed towards Kyiv.
   • РБК-Україна (20:06 UTC) reports explosions in Kyiv.
   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (20:06 UTC) confirms air defense is operating in Kyiv.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:07) also confirms air defense operating in Kyiv.
   • РБК-Україна (20:20) reports that air defense is active on Obolon.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:12) reports that air defense is operating in Kyiv. It claims multiple drones approaching the city.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that the drone attack on Kyiv is ONGOING AND INTENSE. Air defense systems are ACTIVELY ENGAGED. The continued reports of new drone groups entering Kyiv Oblast suggest a SUSTAINED EFFORT by Russia to overwhelm defenses.

2. DRONES REPORTED HEADING TOWARDS CHERKASY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:17 UTC) reports drones moving through Poltava and Kyiv Oblasts towards Cherkasy Oblast.
   • Assessment: This indicates a BROADENING OF THE TARGET AREA, suggesting a MULTI-PRONGED ATTACK that extends BEYOND KYIV.

3. GENERAL STAFF REPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:10 UTC) provides a comprehensive operational update as of 22:00 UTC (note: this is a DELAYED REPORT due to the time difference).

   • Key Claims:

     • 112 combat clashes throughout the day.
     • 3 Russian missile strikes (using 16 missiles).
     • 65 airstrikes, including 88 guided aerial bombs (KABs).
     • 1096 kamikaze drone attacks.
     • Over 4300 shellings of Ukrainian positions and settlements.
     • Kharkiv Direction: 3 Russian attempts to breach defenses near Vovchansk and Zapadne were repelled.
     • Kupyansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka; 2 attacks ongoing.
     • Lyman Direction: 3 Russian attacks stopped near Yampolivka and Kolodyazi; 2 battles ongoing.
     • Siversk Direction: 2 Russian attempts to advance near Bilohorivka were unsuccessful.
     • Kramatorsk Direction: 2 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and Vasyukivka were repelled; 1 ongoing.
     • Toretsk Direction: 8 Russian assaults near Toretsk; 4 ongoing.
     • Pokrovsk Direction: 31 RUSSIAN ATTACKS. Highest activity near Promin, Pokrovsk, Pishchane, Lysivka, Vodyane Druhe, Serhiivka, Nadiivka, Bohdanivka, Sribne, Andriivka, and Ulakly. 6 battles ongoing. CLAIMED 156 Russian KIA and 139 WIA. Significant claimed destruction of Russian equipment.
     • Novopavlivsk Direction: 11 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozdolne, Novoocheretuvate, and Pryvilne; 1 battle ongoing.
     • Huliaipole Direction: 3 Russian attacks near Novopole and Novosilka; 1 battle ongoing.
     • Orikhiv Direction: 3 Russian attacks near Novoandriivka and Stepove; 1 battle ongoing.
     • Prydniprovsk Direction: No active Russian offensive actions reported.
     • Kursk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling 3 Russian attacks; 29 combat clashes recorded. 17 Russian airstrikes (22 guided bombs) and 413 artillery strikes reported.
     • Highlighted Ukrainian Units: 422nd Separate Unmanned Systems Battalion, 406th Separate Artillery Brigade, 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade.

   • Assessment: This report CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, with the POKROVSK DIRECTION experiencing the HIGHEST LEVEL OF RUSSIAN ACTIVITY. The claimed Russian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The report also HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING THREAT OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS AND DRONE ATTACKS.

4. RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES CLAIM ACTIVITY IN SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:13 UTC) claims Russian "Anvar" special forces are destroying "NATO equipment" in Sumy Oblast. VIDEO EVIDENCE provided.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of activity in Sumy Oblast. The claim of targeting "NATO equipment" is STANDARD PROPAGANDA, but the video footage NEEDS ANALYSIS to determine the actual targets and location.

5. UKRAINIAN REPORTS THAT RESERV+ APP IS ACCEPTED (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (20:20) reports that there are rare situations where the official app is not being accepted for military processing.
   • Assessment: This app should not be having any problems with official acceptance.

6. UK MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS SPEAKS OUT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (20:20) reports that negotiations may not be the way to end the war.
   • Assessment: This indicates that diplomatic solutions are not currently perceived as effective.

7. ISRAEL MINISTER OF TRANSPORT STOPS TRAIN TRAVEL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (20:23) reports that trains have been halted.
   • Assessment: This likely is related to the attacks described above, in the updates from 19:55 - 20:24.

Updated Situation Summary

• INTENSE AND ONGOING DRONE ATTACK ON KYIV AND OTHER REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone attack on Kyiv is CONTINUING, with multiple waves of drones reported. Air defense systems are ACTIVELY ENGAGED. The target area has BROADENED to include Cherkasy Oblast.
• HEAVY FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, ESPECIALLY POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The General Staff report confirms INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple fronts, with the POKROVSK DIRECTION experiencing the HIGHEST LEVEL OF RUSSIAN ACTIVITY (31 attacks). Significant Russian losses are claimed, but require verification.
• CONTINUED THREAT OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS AND DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The General Staff report highlights the ongoing use of guided aerial bombs and large numbers of kamikaze drones by Russia.
• RUSSIAN ACTIVITY REPORTED IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian special forces claim activity in Sumy Oblast, targeting "NATO equipment." NEEDS VERIFICATION.
• US WEAPON DELIVERIES TO UKRAINE STOPPED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): There are CONFLICTING REPORTS regarding weapon delivery halts.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian paratroopers successfully raided a Russian blindage near Kurakhovo.
• FPV DRONES IN SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms ongoing operations in that region.
• DEEPENING US-UKRAINE RIFT CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Trump's disappointment with Zelensky is reiterated, along with calls for him to return to resource negotiations.
• ELON MUSK COMMENTS ON AID AND ISS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Musk's claims about aid misuse are likely part of a disinformation campaign, but need to be countered.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, PRIORITIZE KYIV, CHERKASY, ODESA, MYRHORD AND SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense operations in KYIV, with a FOCUS on countering the MULTI-WAVE DRONE ATTACKS and protecting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • IMMEDIATELY deploy and activate air defense systems in CHERKASY OBLAST to intercept incoming drones.
   • Maintain clear and frequent communication with the public about air raid alerts and safety procedures.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, especially energy facilities.
   • Alert and prepare air defenses in the path of drones in SUMY OBLAST.
   • Redeploy and bolster ODESA air defenses.

2. ADDRESS GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain high alert and warn civilians in Donetsk Oblast to take shelter.
   • Utilize intelligence assets to TRACK AND INTERCEPT incoming guided aerial bombs.

3. URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTED DRONE STRIKE ON VEHICLE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported drone strike on a vehicle.
   • Determine the identity of the vehicle's occupants and the EXTENT OF DAMAGE.

4. INVESTIGATE PROPAGANDA CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly investigate the claims made to undermine and attack Ukraine's alliances.
   • Review security protocols for information.

5. CLARIFY STATUS OF US WEAPON DELIVERIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Obtain DEFINITIVE CONFIRMATION from US sources regarding the status of weapon deliveries.
   • Address conflicting reports publicly and transparently to maintain confidence and counter disinformation.

6. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, particularly the IMMINENT THREAT TO KYIV, pose a MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE THREAT. The CONTINUED AIR ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST add to the pressure. The CONFLICTING REPORTS regarding US weapon deliveries create UNCERTAINTY AND NEED FOR IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to protect civilians, counter threats, and maintain operational effectiveness.