Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 19:55 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:25 UTC - 19:54 UTC)

1. DRONE GROUPS HEADING TOWARDS KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:26 UTC) reports groups of attack drones moving from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:49 UTC) reports drones passing Brovary, heading towards Kyiv.
   • РБК-Україна (19:50 UTC) confirms drones passing Brovary are headed towards Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a DIRECT AND IMMINENT DRONE THREAT to Kyiv. Multiple groups of drones are APPROACHING THE CAPITAL. This is a MAJOR ESCALATION of the air attack.

2. DRONES REPORTED NEAR MYRHORD (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:46 UTC) reports several groups of Shahed drones heading towards Myrhorod.
   • STERNENKO (19:48) reports drone groups near Kyiv, Myrhorod, and Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a MULTI-PRONGED DRONE ATTACK is underway, targeting NOT ONLY KYIV but also MYRHORD and areas in SUMY OBLAST.

3. AIR RAID ALERTS IN KYIV AND OTHER REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (19:44, 19:46 UTC) announced and reiterated an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the drone threat.
   • РБК-Україна (19:46 UTC) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv and other regions due to Shahed drones.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:44) announced the air raid alert in Kyiv.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦(19:32) announced air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that air raid alerts are ACTIVE ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, including KYIV AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, indicating a WIDESPREAD AIR THREAT.

4. ZAKHAROVA ACCUSES UKRAINE OF TERRORISM (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (19:26 UTC) reports Maria Zakharova accusing Ukraine of a terrorist attack against CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) facilities, claiming it was carried out with Western involvement.
   • Assessment: This is a CLASSIC RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA TACTIC, blaming Ukraine and the West for any damage to Russian infrastructure. HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE FALSE OR MISREPRESENTED.

5. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK REPORTED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (19:26 UTC) posts a video claiming Ukrainian forces effectively hunted down Russian quad-bike riders.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS are ONGOING and TARGETING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS AND PERSONNEL. The use of drones against quad-bikes suggests a focus on disrupting small-unit mobility.

6. RUSSIAN MoD DAILY FIGURE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (19:29) claims that 163 concentration areas of Ukranian manpower and hardware were targeted by the Russian army.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE INTENSITY OF OPERATIONS.

7. GULYAPOL ATTACKED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (19:36) and ASTRA (19:39) reports a 53-year-old man has died after an attack on Gulyapol.
   • Assessment: This confirms another casualty of this war.

8. DEEPSTATE REPORTS ON KURSK REGION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (19:37) reports that Russians have taken the area, and are now targeting logistics.
   • Assessment: This confirms a SHIFT OF THE FRONTLINE.

9. RUSSIAN BRIDGES DESTROYED (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:37) reports that bridges in Chernigov Oblast were destroyed.
   • Assessment: Confirms that logistics have been TARGETED.

10. UKRAINIAN AND US OFFICIALS CONFIRM TALKS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:35) and РБК-Україна (19:36) report that a new deal is being discussed between Ukrainian and US officials. * Assessment: This confirms that discussions are ONGOING.

11. DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA:

    • Старше Эдды (19:37) claims that Russia lacks advantage in manpower.
      • Assessment: This is PROPAGANDA, aimed to contradict statements by US Vice President.
    • Alex Parker Returns (19:39) claims that the weapon storages in Europe are empty.
    • Assessment: This is PROPAGANDA.
    • Colonelcassad (19:44) claims that Scholz's mandate will end soon.
    • Assessment: This is likely PROPAGANDA.

12. CLAIMS OF WEAPON DELIVERIES STOPPED DENIED (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:48) claims that the US weapon deliveries have NOT STOPPED.
    • Assessment: This information CONTRADICTS previous reports.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME DRONE THREAT TO KYIV AND OTHER REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple groups of drones are APPROACHING KYIV from different directions, posing an IMMEDIATE AND SEVERE THREAT. Drone threats are also confirmed near MYRHORD and in SUMY OBLAST. Air raid alerts are active across multiple regions, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND STRIKES REPORTED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Detailed reports from Russian sources claim advances in several directions, including near Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kupyansk, Konstantinovskoye, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kursk. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• INTENSIFIED FIGHTING REPORTED IN MULTIPLE AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Fighting continues around Andreevka and Konstantinopol.
• RUSSIAN FORCES TARGETING UKRAINIAN SIGNAL ACCOUNTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms that hacking and spying attempts are ongoing.
• US WEAPON DELIVERIES TO UKRAINE STOPPED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): There are CONFLICTING REPORTS regarding weapon delivery halts.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian paratroopers successfully raided a Russian blindage near Kurakhovo.
• FPV DRONES IN SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms ongoing operations in that region.
• DEEPENING US-UKRAINE RIFT CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Trump's disappointment with Zelensky is reiterated, along with calls for him to return to resource negotiations.
• ELON MUSK COMMENTS ON AID AND ISS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Musk's claims about aid misuse are likely part of a disinformation campaign, but need to be countered.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE AND TOTAL AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION IN KYIV AND SURROUNDING AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available air defense systems in and around KYIV to counter the INCOMING DRONE THREAT.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Maintain continuous communication with the public, urging them to REMAIN IN SHELTERS.
   • Coordinate with regional air defense units to ensure comprehensive coverage.

2. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, PRIORITIZE ODESA, MYRHORD AND SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense operations in ODESA, with a FOCUS on countering the MULTI-WAVE DRONE ATTACKS and protecting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • IMMEDIATELY deploy and activate air defense systems in MYRHORD.
   • Maintain clear and frequent communication with the public about air raid alerts and safety procedures.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, especially energy facilities.
   • Alert and prepare air defenses in the path of drones in SUMY OBLAST.

3. ADDRESS GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain high alert and warn civilians in Donetsk Oblast to take shelter.
   • Utilize intelligence assets to TRACK AND INTERCEPT incoming guided aerial bombs.

4. URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTED DRONE STRIKE ON VEHICLE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported drone strike on a vehicle.
   • Determine the identity of the vehicle's occupants and the EXTENT OF DAMAGE.

5. INVESTIGATE PROPAGANDA CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly investigate the claims made to undermine and attack Ukraine's alliances.
   • Review security protocols for information.

6. CLARIFY STATUS OF US WEAPON DELIVERIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Obtain DEFINITIVE CONFIRMATION from US sources regarding the status of weapon deliveries.
   • Address conflicting reports publicly and transparently to maintain confidence and counter disinformation.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, particularly the IMMINENT THREAT TO KYIV, pose a MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE THREAT. The CONTINUED AIR ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST add to the pressure. The CONFLICTING REPORTS regarding US weapon deliveries create UNCERTAINTY AND NEED FOR IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to protect civilians, counter threats, and maintain operational effectiveness.