Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 19:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:53 UTC - 19:24 UTC)

1. LAVROV CALLS FOR UNITED FRONT AGAINST NEONAZISM (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (18:55 UTC) reports that Russia, during the G20 meeting, calls on partners to unite against neo-Nazism.
   • Assessment: This is consistent with Russia's ongoing narrative framing the conflict in Ukraine as a fight against "Nazism." It is a propaganda tactic designed to justify its actions and garner support.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND STRIKES REPORTED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (18:56 UTC) reports Russian advances in multiple directions:

     • Krasnoarmeyskoye Direction: Claims troops are nearing Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and pushing the enemy's defense on the southern flank.
     • Kupyansk Direction: Claims an advance of 700m south of Lozovaya, with forces digging in and expanding the bridgehead along the Oskol River towards Novoplatonovka.
     • Konstantinovskoye Direction: Claims continued pressure on enemy defenses west of Chasov Yar and expansion of the control zone, along with advances near Stupochki along the highway.
     • Kharkiv Oblast (Liptsevsky Section): Claims artillery eliminated two enemy assault groups, three pickups, and two UAV control points.
     • Kharkiv Oblast (Volchansky Section): Claims an advance of 80m on the outskirts of Volchansk along the Volchya River, with reserves of manpower being transferred to the southern outskirts of Volchansk by Ukrainian forces.
     • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Claims an attack near Pyatikhatki by airborne troops, pushing the enemy and taking positions in Pyatikhatki.
     • Kursk Oblast: Claims advances southeast of Sverdlikovo by airborne troops, clearing several forest belts. Reports positional battles near Pogrebkov, with concentrated small arms fire near the church. Claims expansion of the bridgehead north of Guyevo on the Psel River bank, with marines breaching the enemy defense and crossing the Kursk Oblast border.
     • Strikes in Konstantinovka and surrounding areas.
     • Claims a major gas production station in Mirnoye, Kharkiv Oblast, was disabled by an Iskander strike.

   • Assessment: These reports REINFORCE PREVIOUS CLAIMS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES on MULTIPLE FRONTS. The breadth of the claimed advances, if true, is SIGNIFICANT. The claimed Iskander strike on gas infrastructure aligns with previous patterns of targeting energy infrastructure. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.

3. UKRAINIAN RAID ON RUSSIAN BLINDAGE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:56 UTC) posts a video showing Ukrainian paratroopers from the 46th Brigade, supported by a "Husky" armored vehicle, attacking a Russian blindage near Kurakhovo and destroying it with TM-62 mines.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS in the KURAKHOVO AREA. The use of mines suggests a tactic to disrupt Russian positions and potentially inflict casualties. This is a TACTICAL SUCCESS for Ukrainian forces.

4. LAVROV ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (18:58) reports that Russia and the US agreed that international relations must be structured on the basis of respect for all countries' national interests.
   • Assessment: This confirms previous discussions.

5. TRUMP DISAPPOINTED IN ZELENSKY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:00 UTC) reiterates Trump's disappointment with Zelensky's actions and rhetoric, urging him to return to constructive work on the resource agreement.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the growing rift between the US and Ukraine under the Trump administration.

6. UKRAINIAN MFA CALLS FOR ACCESS TO TRUTH SOCIAL (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (19:00 UTC) reports the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called for access to Truth Social for Ukrainians.
   • Assessment: This indicates a desire by Ukraine to engage with the platform and potentially counter narratives or disseminate information.

7. RUSSIA EXTENDS GASOLINE EXPORT RESTRICTIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (19:02) reports that Russia has prolonged gasoline export restrictions until the end of August, while allowing producers to deliver fuel to external markets.
• Assessment: This could be a maneuver related to sanctions and internal supply.

8. WARTEARS PROJECT REPORTS UKRAINIAN LOSSES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (19:04 UTC) reports Ukrainian losses from February 24, 2022, to February 20, 2025, according to the WarTears project.
   • Assessment: HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE PROPAGANDA or INFLATED FIGURES. The numbers should be treated with EXTREME CAUTION.

9. LAVROV CLAIMS WESTERN WEAPONS FUEL TERRORISM (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (19:05 UTC) reports Lavrov claiming that terrorists worldwide are "fueled" by Western weapons leaking from Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This is a RECURRING RUSSIAN NARRATIVE aimed at discrediting Western support for Ukraine and deflecting blame for the spread of weapons.

10. FIGHTERBOMBER REPORTS "CLEARANCE" (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Fighterbomber (19:06) reports "Clearance," likely indicating the end of an air raid alert.
    • Assessment: Confirmation that the alert has ended.

11. FIGHTING AROUND ANDREEVKA AND KONSTANTINOPOL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Военкор Котенок (19:06) reports Russian forces attacking a Ukrainian strongpoint northwest of Andreevka and counter-battles in the southwestern part of Konstantinopol.
    • Assessment: Confirms the ongoing battles.

12. RUSSIAN EMBASSY CALLS ON MOLDOVA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (19:09) reports that the Russian embassy has called on Moldova to reconsider their decision to close down the Russian House.
    • Assessment: This indicates potential issues with the diplomatic relations between the 2 countries.

13. RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES TARGETING UKRAINIAN SIGNAL ACCOUNTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:11) reports that Russian special forces are targeting Ukrainian military and government officials' Signal accounts.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMED.

14. US WEAPON DELIVERIES TO UKRAINE STOPPED (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (19:14:47) reports that US weapon deliveries to Ukraine have stopped.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMATION.

15. ZELENSKY'S RHETORIC (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (19:15) reports that Trump is disappointed in Zelensky's rhetoric, and that US weapon stockpiles are becoming depleted.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMATION.

16. FPV DRONES IN SUMY REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (19:15) shows FPV drones destroying equipment in the Sumy region.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMATION.

17. RUSSIAN AIRBORNE FORCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника (19:16) requests a UAZ vehicle for a unit.
    • Assessment: This confirms that logistics are needed for the front.

18. NIGHT OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:16) reports that the night will be rough for the enemy.
    • Assessment: This indicates a potential escalation in the conflict.

19. LAVROV STATEMENTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (19:17) reports that Lavrov has stated that the West needs to accept a new balance of power.
    • Assessment: This shows Russia's intent regarding negotiations.

20. RUSSIAN LOSSES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:22) and Anatoly Stefan "Stirlitz" (19:22) show casualties.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMED.

21. ELON MUSK COMMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:22) states that Elon Musk claims that most of the money sent to Ukraine actually ended up in the hands of American politicians, the National Committee of the Democratic Party, and some Republicans.
    • Assessment: HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL and LIKELY PART OF A DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN.

22. ALEX PARKER RETURNS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Alex Parker Returns (19:24) claims that Trump hates Ukraine and that he has worked for 3 years to help Trump get back to power.
    • Assessment: PROPAGANDA.

23. ELON MUSK COMMENTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (19:24) reports that Elon Musk has stated that it's time to take the ISS out of orbit.
    • Assessment: This indicates that a decision on the ISS has been made.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES CLAIMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Detailed reports from Russian sources claim advances in several directions, including near Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kupyansk, Konstantinovskoye, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kursk. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• INTENSIFIED FIGHTING REPORTED IN MULTIPLE AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Fighting continues around Andreevka and Konstantinopol.
• RUSSIAN FORCES TARGETING UKRAINIAN SIGNAL ACCOUNTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms that hacking and spying attempts are ongoing.
• US WEAPON DELIVERIES TO UKRAINE STOPPED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms the decision regarding arms deliveries.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian paratroopers successfully raided a Russian blindage near Kurakhovo.
• FPV DRONES IN SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms ongoing operations in that region.
• DEEPENING US-UKRAINE RIFT CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Trump's disappointment with Zelensky is reiterated, along with calls for him to return to resource negotiations.
• ELON MUSK COMMENTS ON AID AND ISS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Musk's claims about aid misuse are likely part of a disinformation campaign, but need to be countered.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect, focusing on ALL REPORTED ADVANCE LOCATIONS.

2. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE SUMY REGION AND OKHTYRKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

3. INVESTIGATE AND COUNTER RUSSIAN CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Investigate the claims of the strike on the gas station. All previous recommendations remain in effect.

4. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE RIFT AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF SUPPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect, adding:

   • Counteract the negative narratives circulating, emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to transparency and cooperation.
   • Publicly address the need for continued Western support, highlighting the consequences of a Russian victory for European security.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, if confirmed, represent a MAJOR SHIFT in the battlefield situation. The CONFIRMED HALT OF US WEAPON DELIVERIES, combined with the DEEPENING US-UKRAINE RIFT, creates a CRITICAL VULNERABILITY for Ukraine. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to VERIFY THE BATTLEFIELD SITUATION, SECURE ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF MILITARY SUPPORT, and REPAIR THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE US to the extent possible.