Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 12:36 UTC
Changes and New Information (12:07 UTC - 12:36 UTC)
RUSSIAN AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS TRAINING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Два майора (11:18:20 UTC) reports that units of the 18th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces are training in overcoming water obstacles in the Kherson direction. REMAINS HIGH PRIORITY.
UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (11:23:54 UTC) reports that the first cycle of basic general military training (БЗВП) for cadets of a brigade in 2025 has been completed.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA, SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Colonelcassad (11:24:29 UTC) reports an Iskander OTRK strike on a large concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment and personnel in the area of Baranovka, Sumy Oblast. REMAINS HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (11:25:56 UTC) reports a Russian heavy artillery strike on Nikopol, resulting in the deaths of two men and the injury of a 39-year-old woman. REMAINS HIGH PRIORITY.
UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:28:40) reports a 77 year-old woman was wounded as a result of a UAV attack.
FIGHTING IN TORETSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (11:28:47 UTC) reports active fighting in Toretsk, with Russian forces applying constant pressure and gradually gaining ground. REMAINS HIGH PRIORITY.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:33:22 UTC) reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted, but enemy tactical aviation activity remains on the northeastern direction. REMAINS HIGH PRIORITY.
UKRAINIAN FACT-CHECK OF TRUMP STATEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:31:05) reports that The Guardian and CNN have fact-checked and refuted a number of recent statements by Donald Trump about Zelensky and the war in Ukraine.
RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA AREA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Colonelcassad (11:42:58 UTC) reports a series of Russian strikes on Ukrainian military warehouses and infrastructure in Konstantinovka, Dolgaya Balka, Stepanovka, and Ilyinovka on the morning of February 20, 2025. REMAINS HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN DRONE SWARM ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Два майора (11:50:47 UTC) reports continued Russian aviation and artillery activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically near Orekhovo (Orikhiv). This includes the use of kamikaze drones and drones with explosive drops to target Ukrainian positions before assault operations.
BUDANOV PREDICTS CEASEFIRE IN 2025 (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:44:04 UTC) quotes Ukrainian GUR head Kyrylo Budanov as saying that he believes a ceasefire will be reached in 2025, although the duration and effectiveness are uncertain. REMAINS MEDIUM PRIORITY.
UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE). РБК-Україна (11:53:10) announces that the Prime Minister of Spain will visit Ukraine on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
UKRAINIAN AERIAL INTERCEPTORS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):STERNENKO (11:50:06) provided footage of soldiers thanking the community for the delivery of aerial interceptors.
UKRAINIAN ANTI-TANK MINE DEPLOYMENT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):46 окрема аеромобільна бригада ДШВ ЗС України (11:44:59 UTC) released footage showing the manual deployment of anti-tank mines by Ukrainian soldiers of the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, resulting in the destruction of an enemy vehicle and a bunker.
BODY RECOVERED FROM RUBBLE IN KHERSON (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):РБК-Україна (12:00:08 UTC) reports that the body of a man has been recovered from the rubble of an apartment building in Kherson.
ALLEGED FORGED CONTRACTS OF CONSCRIPTS IN CHEBARKUL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (11:59:58 UTC) reports that the contract of a conscript in Chebarkul, Georgy Sedych, was allegedly forged after he was tricked into signing a transfer request. This follows previous reports of forged contracts for conscripts in the same area. REMAINS MEDIUM PRIORITY.
CLAIM: US NO LONGER CO-AUTHORING UN RESOLUTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN/UKRAINIAN SOURCES):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:00:48 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (11:33:13) report, citing Russian sources, that the US is no longer co-authoring an anti-Russian UN General Assembly resolution demanding Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. REMAINS HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES INVESTIGATION.
PUTIN CALLS FOR PROTECTION OF "SPECIAL OPERATION" PARTICIPANTS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):ТАСС (12:06:03 UTC) reports that Putin has demanded reliable protection of the rights of participants in the "special operation." REMAINS MEDIUM PRIORITY.
RUSSIAN MoD REPORT ON KURSK REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):MoD Russia (12:12:50 UTC) released a report claiming to have repelled an attempted Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, inflicting significant casualties and destroying equipment. REQUIRES VERIFICATION, POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR CHASIV YAR (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:28:42 UTC) claims Russian forces are advancing west of Chasiv Yar, capturing Grygorivka, and advancing along a canal. REQUIRES VERIFICATION, POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA. Claims control of refractory plant CONFLICTS with Басурин о главном (12:24:53), who reports control.
RUSSIAN MoD REPORT ON STRIKES (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Colonelcassad (12:23:42 UTC), citing the Russian MoD, reports a series of strikes on Ukrainian gas and energy infrastructure supporting the military-industrial complex, as well as strikes on various military targets across the front lines. REQUIRES VERIFICATION, POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA.
GERMAN CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ DEFENDS UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:34:26 UTC) reports that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected claims that Ukraine was responsible for the war and affirmed EU support for Ukraine's membership.
LAVROV IN SOUTH AFRICA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):ТАСС (12:35:55) reports that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has arrived in South Africa for a meeting of G20 foreign ministers. DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY.
UKRAINIAN TROOPS USING "RADIO BRIDGES" IN ABSENCE OF STARLINK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):STERNENKO (12:24:00) describes an alternative communication solution involving radio antennas and specialized equipment as a potential backup to Starlink. TECHNOLOGICAL ADAPTATION.
COMBAT NEAR CHASIV YAR (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Басурин о главном* (12:24:53) claims FPV drones are being used heavily and that Russian forces have captured a refractory plant.
UKRAINIAN WEATHER FORECAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):РБК-Україна (12:24:57 UTC) reports a weather forecast for Ukraine, predicting cold weather with strong winds in the south.
PROPAGANDA MUSEUM (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Воин DV (12:31:02) reports that the 2nd Machine Gun Battalion of the 69th Brigade of the "Vostok" group has created a museum of trophies collected from battles in the region.
Updated Situation Summary
POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS DNIEPER RIVER (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces are reportedly training for amphibious operations in the Kherson direction. REMAINS EXTREME PRIORITY.
INTENSE FIGHTING AROUND CHASIV YAR (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFLICTING REPORTS): Russian forces are claiming advances in and around Chasiv Yar, including the capture of Grygorivka and a refractory plant. VERIFICATION CRUCIAL DUE TO CONFLICTING REPORTS.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA, SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports claim significant Ukrainian losses, but REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure confirm continued Russian attacks on civilian areas.
CONTINUED UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING (CONFIRMED): Ukraine is focusing on rapidly training new recruits.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, BUT TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY): The risk of air strikes remains high.
RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
BUDANOV PREDICTS CEASEFIRE: The Ukrainian intelligence head's statement, while coming from a biased source, needs to be considered and factored into planning.
CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY: Confirmed drone strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the delivery of aerial interceptors demonstrate the continued importance of drone warfare.
POTENTIAL FORGED CONTRACTS IN RUSSIAN MILITARY: Reports of forged contracts for conscripts raise questions about recruitment practices and potential internal issues within the Russian military.
POSSIBLE SHIFT IN US DIPLOMATIC STANCE: The claim that the US is not co-authoring a UN resolution could signal a change in strategy or tactics, REQUIRING FURTHER INVESTIGATION.
PUTIN'S FOCUS ON PROTECTING "SPECIAL OPERATION" PARTICIPANTS: This indicates a heightened concern within Russia about the social and legal consequences of the conflict.
RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS OF REPULSED UKRAINIAN INCURSION (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The Russian MoD claims to have repelled a Ukrainian incursion and inflicted heavy casualties. THIS IS LIKELY PROPAGANDA BUT MUST BE INVESTIGATED.
GERMAN CHANCELLOR REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (CONFIRMED): Scholz's statements demonstrate continued European support for Ukraine.
UKRAINIAN EFFORTS TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE COMMUNICATION METHODS (REPORTED): This shows an awareness of potential vulnerabilities and a proactive approach to maintaining communications.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT. The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Dramatically increase reconnaissance and surveillance along the DNIEPER RIVER, particularly in the KHERSON DIRECTION.
Deploy additional air defense assets to the area to counter potential air support for a river crossing.
Prepare for counter-attacks and REINFORCE UKRAINIAN POSITIONS on the eastern bank of the river.
Develop contingency plans for a potential Russian breakthrough.
Coordinate with Western allies to SHARE INTELLIGENCE and REQUEST ADDITIONAL MILITARY ASSISTANCE.
URGENTLY VERIFY AND RESPOND TO SITUATION AROUND CHASIV YAR (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE Russian claims of advances, particularly the capture of Grygorivka and the refractory plant.
Reinforce Ukrainian positions in and around Chasiv Yar.
Increase artillery and drone strikes on advancing Russian forces.
Assess the potential for counter-attacks.
VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported casualties and damage.
Assess the impact of any confirmed losses.
ADDRESS RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Provide immediate medical care and support to the injured.
Assess the damage to infrastructure and begin repair efforts.
Document the incident for potential war crimes investigations.
Assess the MOTIVATION behind Budanov's statement. Is it a genuine assessment, a propaganda tactic, or a signal to potential negotiating partners?
Evaluate the likelihood of a ceasefire in 2025, considering all available intelligence and the current battlefield situation.
Develop CONTINGENCY PLANS for both a potential ceasefire and continued conflict.
INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF FORGED CONTRACTS IN RUSSIAN MILITARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Gather more intelligence on these reports, analyzing their potential impact on Russian military morale and recruitment.
CLARIFY US POSITION ON UN RESOLUTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Seek clarification from US diplomatic sources regarding their stance on the UN resolution.
Assess the potential implications of any change in US policy.
VERIFY RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS REGARDING KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy intelligence assets to VERIFY OR REFUTE the Russian MoD's claims of repelling a Ukrainian incursion and inflicting heavy casualties.
Assess the actual situation on the ground in the Kursk region.
MONITOR AND SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE COMMUNICATION METHODS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the "radio bridge" solution described by STERNENKO.
Provide technical support and resources to units developing and deploying alternative communication systems.
Develop contingency plans for scenarios where Starlink access is disrupted.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS THE DNIEPER RIVER and the INTENSE FIGHTING AROUND CHASIV YAR are the MOST URGENT AND SIGNIFICANT THREATS. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. The need to VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS regarding both ADVANCES and REPELLED INCURSIONS is PARAMOUNT.
