Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 12:07 UTC
Changes and New Information (11:38 UTC - 12:07 UTC)
RUSSIAN AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS TRAINING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Два майора (11:18:20 UTC) reports that units of the 18th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces are training in overcoming water obstacles in the Kherson direction.
UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (11:23:54 UTC) reports that the first cycle of basic general military training (БЗВП) for cadets of a brigade in 2025 has been completed.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA, SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Colonelcassad (11:24:29 UTC) reports an Iskander OTRK strike on a large concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment and personnel in the area of Baranovka, Sumy Oblast.
RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (11:25:56 UTC) reports a Russian heavy artillery strike on Nikopol, resulting in the deaths of two men and the injury of a 39-year-old woman.
UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:28:40) reports a 77 year-old woman was wounded as a result of a UAV attack.
FIGHTING IN TORETSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (11:28:47 UTC) reports active fighting in Toretsk, with Russian forces applying constant pressure and gradually gaining ground.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:33:22 UTC) reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted, but enemy tactical aviation activity remains on the northeastern direction.
UKRAINIAN FACT-CHECK OF TRUMP STATEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:31:05) reports that The Guardian and CNN have fact-checked and refuted a number of recent statements by Donald Trump about Zelensky and the war in Ukraine.
RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA AREA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Colonelcassad (11:42:58 UTC) reports a series of Russian strikes on Ukrainian military warehouses and infrastructure in Konstantinovka, Dolgaya Balka, Stepanovka, and Ilyinovka on the morning of February 20, 2025.
RUSSIAN DRONE SWARM ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Два майора (11:50:47 UTC) reports continued Russian aviation and artillery activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically near Orekhovo (Orikhiv). This includes the use of kamikaze drones and drones with explosive drops to target Ukrainian positions before assault operations.
BUDANOV PREDICTS CEASEFIRE IN 2025 (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:44:04 UTC) quotes Ukrainian GUR head Kyrylo Budanov as saying that he believes a ceasefire will be reached in 2025, although the duration and effectiveness are uncertain.
UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE). РБК-Україна (11:53:10) announces that the Prime Minister of Spain will visit Ukraine on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
UKRAINIAN AERIAL INTERCEPTORS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):STERNENKO (11:50:06) provided footage of soldiers thanking the community for the delivery of aerial interceptors.
UKRAINIAN ANTI-TANK MINE DEPLOYMENT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):46 окрема аеромобільна бригада ДШВ ЗС України (11:44:59 UTC) released footage showing the manual deployment of anti-tank mines by Ukrainian soldiers of the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, resulting in the destruction of an enemy vehicle and a bunker.
BODY RECOVERED FROM RUBBLE IN KHERSON (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):РБК-Україна (12:00:08 UTC) reports that the body of a man has been recovered from the rubble of an apartment building in Kherson.
ALLEGED FORGED CONTRACTS OF CONSCRIPTS IN CHEBARKUL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (11:59:58 UTC) reports that the contract of a conscript in Chebarkul, Georgy Sedych, was allegedly forged after he was tricked into signing a transfer request. This follows previous reports of forged contracts for conscripts in the same area.
CLAIM: US NO LONGER CO-AUTHORING UN RESOLUTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN/UKRAINIAN SOURCES):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:00:48 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (11:33:13) report, citing Russian sources, that the US is no longer co-authoring an anti-Russian UN General Assembly resolution demanding Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
PUTIN CALLS FOR PROTECTION OF "SPECIAL OPERATION" PARTICIPANTS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):ТАСС (12:06:03 UTC) reports that Putin has demanded reliable protection of the rights of participants in the "special operation."
Updated Situation Summary
POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS DNIEPER RIVER (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces are reportedly training for amphibious operations in the Kherson direction. URGENT VERIFICATION AND PREPARATION ARE CRUCIAL.
INTENSE FIGHTING IN TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces are making gains in Toretsk, with active fighting ongoing.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA, SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports claim significant Ukrainian losses, but REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure confirm continued Russian attacks on civilian areas.
CONTINUED UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING (CONFIRMED): Ukraine is focusing on rapidly training new recruits.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, BUT TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY): The risk of air strikes remains high.
RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
BUDANOV PREDICTS CEASEFIRE The Ukrainian intelligence head's statement, while coming from a biased source, needs to be considered and factored into planning.
CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY: Confirmed drone strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the delivery of aerial interceptors demonstrate the continued importance of drone warfare.
POTENTIAL FORGED CONTRACTS IN RUSSIAN MILITARY: Reports of forged contracts for conscripts raise questions about recruitment practices and potential internal issues within the Russian military.
POSSIBLE SHIFT IN US DIPLOMATIC STANCE: The claim that the US is not co-authoring a UN resolution could signal a change in strategy or tactics, REQUIRING FURTHER INVESTIGATION.
PUTIN'S FOCUS ON PROTECTING "SPECIAL OPERATION" PARTICIPANTS: This indicates a heightened concern within Russia about the social and legal consequences of the conflict.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT. The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Dramatically increase reconnaissance and surveillance along the DNIEPER RIVER, particularly in the KHERSON DIRECTION.
Deploy additional air defense assets to the area to counter potential air support for a river crossing.
Prepare for counter-attacks and REINFORCE UKRAINIAN POSITIONS on the eastern bank of the river.
Develop contingency plans for a potential Russian breakthrough.
Coordinate with Western allies to SHARE INTELLIGENCE and REQUEST ADDITIONAL MILITARY ASSISTANCE.
RESPOND TO SITUATION IN TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Reinforce Ukrainian positions in and around Toretsk.
Increase artillery and drone strikes on advancing Russian forces.
Assess the potential for counter-attacks.
VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported casualties and damage.
Assess the impact of any confirmed losses.
ADDRESS RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Provide immediate medical care and support to the injured.
Assess the damage to infrastructure and begin repair efforts.
Document the incident for potential war crimes investigations.
Assess the MOTIVATION behind Budanov's statement. Is it a genuine assessment, a propaganda tactic, or a signal to potential negotiating partners?
Evaluate the likelihood of a ceasefire in 2025, considering all available intelligence and the current battlefield situation.
Develop CONTINGENCY PLANS for both a potential ceasefire and continued conflict.
INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF FORGED CONTRACTS IN RUSSIAN MILITARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Gather more intelligence on these reports, analyzing their potential impact on Russian military morale and recruitment.
CLARIFY US POSITION ON UN RESOLUTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Seek clarification from US diplomatic sources regarding their stance on the UN resolution.
Assess the potential implications of any change in US policy.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS THE DNIEPER RIVER is the MOST URGENT AND SIGNIFICANT THREAT. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL.
