Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 11:37 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:08 UTC - 11:37 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS TRAINING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (11:18:20 UTC) reports that units of the 18th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces are training in overcoming water obstacles in the Kherson direction. The report claims the 18th Army is actively preparing to cross the Dnieper River, building up forces, conducting reconnaissance in force, and demining in preparation for offensive actions. Engineering measures to build pontoon bridges are also being practiced. The video shows a PTS-M amphibious tracked vehicle.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. If confirmed, it indicates SERIOUS RUSSIAN PREPARATIONS for a POTENTIAL OFFENSIVE OPERATION across the DNIEPER RIVER. This would represent a MAJOR ESCALATION and a NEW FRONT in the conflict. This requires EXTREME PRIORITY VERIFICATION and IMMEDIATE PREPARATIONS for countermeasures. The use of older equipment like the PTS-M suggests potential resource constraints, but does not negate the threat.

2. UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (11:23:54 UTC) reports that the first cycle of basic general military training (БЗВП) for cadets of a brigade in 2025 has been completed. The 45-day experimental training program included shooting from automatic rifles, machine guns, and grenade launchers, throwing live grenades, building trenches and defensive engineering structures, learning first aid, and storming and clearing trenches and buildings. The program aims to turn those who have never held a weapon before into soldiers.
   • Assessment: This confirms ONGOING EFFORTS to STRENGTHEN UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES through INTENSIVE TRAINING. The focus on basic combat skills suggests RAPID DEPLOYMENT of new recruits is a priority.

3. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA, SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (11:24:29 UTC) reports an Iskander OTRK strike on a large concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment and personnel in the area of Baranovka, Sumy Oblast. The report claims the destruction of 15 vehicles and approximately 120 personnel, including Polish mercenaries. The video accompanying the report, however, shows thermal footage of the strike, but not clearly the target or the number of casualties.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSS. The claim of Polish mercenaries being present is a common Russian narrative and should be treated with skepticism.

4. RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (11:25:56 UTC) reports a Russian heavy artillery strike on Nikopol, resulting in the deaths of two men and the injury of a 39-year-old woman. The attack damaged industrial and private enterprises, a cafe, shops, garages, cars, and a private house, causing a fire that was quickly extinguished.
   • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. This is a SERIOUS INCIDENT and highlights the ongoing threat to civilians in frontline areas.

5. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:28:40) reports a 77 year-old woman was wounded as a result of a UAV attack.
   • Assessment: Confirmation of continued UAV strikes.

6. FIGHTING IN TORETSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (11:28:47 UTC) reports active fighting in Toretsk, with Russian forces applying constant pressure and gradually gaining ground. The 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade is shown in the video, highlighting significant destruction in the town.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING in TORETSK and RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the area. This is a SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT and requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.

7. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:33:22 UTC) reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted, but enemy tactical aviation activity remains on the northeastern direction.
   • Assessment: While the IMMEDIATE THREAT has passed, the RISK OF AIR STRIKES remains HIGH.

8. UKRAINIAN FACT-CHECK OF TRUMP STATEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:31:05) reports that The Guardian and CNN have fact-checked and refuted a number of recent statements by Donald Trump about Zelensky and the war in Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS ONGOING EFFORTS to COUNTER DISINFORMATION and MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS DNIEPER RIVER (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces are reportedly training for amphibious operations in the Kherson direction, indicating a POSSIBLE MAJOR ESCALATION and a NEW FRONT in the conflict. URGENT VERIFICATION AND PREPARATION ARE CRUCIAL.
• INTENSE FIGHTING IN TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces are making gains in Toretsk, with active fighting ongoing.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA, SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports claim significant Ukrainian losses, but REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
• RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure confirm continued Russian attacks on civilian areas.
• CONTINUED UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING (CONFIRMED): Ukraine is focusing on rapidly training new recruits, indicating a need for increased manpower.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, BUT TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY): The risk of air strikes remains high.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT. The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Dramatically increase reconnaissance and surveillance along the DNIEPER RIVER, particularly in the KHERSON DIRECTION.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets to the area to counter potential air support for a river crossing.
   • Prepare for counter-attacks and REINFORCE UKRAINIAN POSITIONS on the eastern bank of the river.
   • Develop contingency plans for a potential Russian breakthrough, including MINING STRATEGIC LOCATIONS and PREPARING DEFENSIVE POSITIONS further inland.
   • Coordinate with Western allies to SHARE INTELLIGENCE and REQUEST ADDITIONAL MILITARY ASSISTANCE, particularly ANTI-ARMOR WEAPONS and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.

2. RESPOND TO SITUATION IN TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Reinforce Ukrainian positions in and around Toretsk.
   • Increase artillery and drone strikes on advancing Russian forces.
   • Assess the potential for counter-attacks to regain lost ground.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported casualties and damage.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed losses on Ukrainian operational capabilities.

4. ADDRESS RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Provide immediate medical care and support to the injured.
   • Assess the damage to infrastructure and begin repair efforts.
   • Document the incident for potential war crimes investigations.
   • Increase air defense in the area to counter further artillery strikes.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain high alert for potential air strikes.
   • Provide timely warnings to civilian populations and military units.

6. CONTINUE COUNTERING DISINFORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Actively refute false claims made by Russian and pro-Russian sources.
   • Promote accurate information about the conflict to domestic and international audiences.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS THE DNIEPER RIVER is the MOST URGENT AND SIGNIFICANT THREAT, requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE across the DNIEPER RIVER represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and a NEW PHASE in the conflict. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to MITIGATE THIS THREAT and MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.