Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 06:55 UTC

Changes and New Information (06:26 UTC - 06:55 UTC)

1. POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER RAID (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • WarGonzo reports that Ukrainian forces may be preparing another attempt to break through into Russian territory, specifically citing increased activity in Kursk Oblast, and the POSSIBILITY of a similar attempt in Bryansk Oblast. Reports increased Ukrainian reconnaissance activity and a buildup of reserves in Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION AND CLOSE MONITORING. This CORRELATES with the earlier reports of a RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE into SUMY OBLAST. It is UNCLEAR if this is a RESPONSE to the Russian actions, a SEPARATE EFFORT, or DISINFORMATION. ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS should be focused on CONFIRMING the reported buildup and ASSESSING THE INTENTIONS of Ukrainian forces. PREPARATIONS should be made for a POSSIBLE INCIURSION.

2. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES NEAR PIATIHATKY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • Дневник Десантника (06:40 UTC) claims Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) attacked near Piatykhatky (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), conducted artillery and air strikes, and then consolidated control over more than half of the settlement, with the rest in a "grey zone."
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. This claim SUGGESTS A RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, which HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET recently. INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is needed. The "grey zone" claim suggests ONGOING FIGHTING.

3. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF FURTHER ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

• Басурин о главном (06:41) cites statements from the Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Rudskoy, claiming:

  • The SVO is the largest military conflict in the last 80 years.

  • Russian forces have liberated over 800 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast.

  • Russian forces have liberated around 75% of DPR and new regions.

  • Russian forces have liberated less than 1% of LPR.

  • In total, during 2024, Russian forces have liberated almost 4600 square kilometers, with over 600 since the beginning of 2025.

  • A decrease in mobilization to the age of 18 and the supply of Western weapons will only extend the conflict, increasing the amount of victims.

  • Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN ACCOUNT of the battlefield situation, REQUIRING CAREFUL SCRUTINY and VERIFICATION of each claim. Many claims CORROBORATE previous reports, INCREASING THEIR LIKELIHOOD, but INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is essential.

4. RUSSIAN SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

• Басурин о главном (06:29 UTC) provides a summary:
  • Claims the Ukrainian military stole over 200 million hryvnia in the development of the "Dzvin" system.
  • Claims the "Dzvin" system is incompatible with NATO protocols and other military systems.
  • Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the battlefield situation, REQUIRING CAREFUL SCRUTINY and VERIFICATION of each claim. Many claims CORROBORATE previous reports, INCREASING THEIR LIKELIHOOD, but INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is essential. The focus on UKRAINIAN CORRUPTION suggests a POTENTIAL UNDERMINING OF MORALE.

5. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN LOSSES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:09 UTC) provided a detailed summary of operations and enemy losses:
   • Provides details of fighting across multiple directions: Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipilske, and Prydniprovskyi. Notably states no active Russian offensive actions in Huliaipilske and Prydniprovskyi directions.
   • Reports ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast, with Russian airstrikes and shelling.
   • Claims 1190 Russian personnel losses, 14 tanks, 14 armored fighting vehicles, 63 artillery systems, 3 MLRS, 6 air defense systems, 160 operational-tactical UAVs, and 136 vehicles destroyed.
   • Assessment: Provides Ukrainian accounts and assessments.

6. TRUMP'S CLAIMS ABOUT FAILED MINERAL DEAL (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• STERNENKO (06:14 UTC) reports Trump's claims about a "raw material" deal.
• Assessment: Confirms information.

7. RUSSIAN SOLDIER SHOWS FLAGS IN HRYHORIVKA (REPORTED): * Сливочный каприз (06:16 UTC) reports Russian soldiers showing flags in Hryhorivka. * Assessment: If true, indicates Russian control.

8. RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (06:21 UTC) reports Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
     • Assessment: Confirms the claim.

9. UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CONFIRMS INVESTIGATION IN MYKOLAIV (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (11:24:00) confirms arrests in connection to Mykolaiv.
   • Assessment: Confirms the investigation.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. Reports of a Russian breakthrough and advance into Tonenke, potentially threatening Ukrainian logistics.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CAPTURE HRYHORIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): INCREASINGLY LIKELY, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION. Multiple Russian sources claim the capture of Hryhorivka, increasing pressure on Chasiv Yar.
• RUSSIAN FORCES ADVANCE ALONG ENTIRE FRONT LINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Previous reports of Russian activity are still valid, along with a BROAD RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT.
• PUTIN SIGNALS WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Previous reports still valid.
• PUTIN ACCUSES WEST OF INVOLVEMENT IN KTK ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Previous reports are still valid.
• CONTINUED AIR ATTACK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of missile threats in Zaporizhzhia and previous reports are still valid.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: Previous reports are still valid.
• INTENSIFIED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian sources claim significant gains and Ukrainian losses, but this REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Attacks on Odesa energy facilities for the second consecutive night.
• UKRAINIAN CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of embezzlement within the Ukrainian military, potentially impacting morale and efficiency.
• POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER RAID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of increased Ukrainian activity near the border, potentially preparing for an incursion into Russia.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claims of Russian advances near Piatykhatky REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence, drone reconnaissance) to CONFIRM the reported Russian breakthrough and advance into Tonenke.
   • Assess the extent of Russian control and the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and LOGISTICAL ROUTES in Kursk Oblast.
   • PREPARE COUNTERMEASURES if necessary, including REINFORCING DEFENSES and PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATIONS.

2. CONFIRM CAPTURE OF HRYHORIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the reported Russian capture of Hryhorivka.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defenses around Chasiv Yar.
   • Adjust defensive strategies as needed.

3. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND LOSSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Independently verify the claims made by Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника and Басурин о главном regarding Russian advances and Ukrainian losses across multiple fronts.
   • Cross-reference information from multiple sources to IDENTIFY DISCREPANCIES and ASSESS RELIABILITY.
   • Pay particular attention to the claims of significant Ukrainian losses in Kursk Oblast.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain HIGH ALERT STATUS for air defense systems, particularly in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Monitor for further missile launches and PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS to the population.

5. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the damage to energy facilities in Odesa.
   • Implement emergency repairs to RESTORE POWER as quickly as possible.
   • Increase security at energy infrastructure facilities to MITIGATE FUTURE ATTACKS.

6. COUNTER DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Refute the claims about a Putin-Trump agreement and the transition of Ukrainian communication operators to Russian jurisdiction.
   • Promote accurate information about the situation in Odesa and other affected areas.

7. INVESTIGATE UKRAINIAN CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Thoroughly investigate the accusations of embezzlement within the Ukrainian military.
   • Take appropriate action against those found responsible.
   • Implement measures to PREVENT FUTURE CORRUPTION and ENSURE EFFICIENT USE OF RESOURCES.

8. MONITOR POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER RAID (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to VERIFY the reported buildup of Ukrainian forces in Sumy Oblast.
   • Assess the likelihood of an attempted incursion into Russia.
   • Prepare for a potential attack and REINFORCE BORDER DEFENSES if necessary.

9. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR PIATIYHATKY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the reported Russian advance.
   • Assess the extent of Russian control in the region.

10. CONTINUE MONITORING AND VERIFICATION EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): * Continue to monitor all available intelligence sources for updates on the battlefield situation. * Verify reports of Russian and Ukrainian actions. * Assess the impact of developments on military operations and strategic objectives.

11. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The potential RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST and the CLAIMED CAPTURE OF HRYHORIVKA are MAJOR CONCERNS requiring IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND RESPONSE. CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE and ONGOING AIR THREATS demand CONSTANT VIGILANCE. The POTENTIAL for a UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER RAID adds a NEW LAYER OF URGENCY. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION remain ESSENTIAL. The report of potential RUSSIAN ADVANCES in ZAPORIZHZHIA needs immediate confirmation.