Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 06:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (05:56 UTC - 06:25 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • Военкор Котенок (06:00 UTC) reports that Russian forces, after taking Sverdlikovo, are attacking in Sumy Oblast, having "broken through the border" and advanced into Tonenke. Claims this threatens the main logistical route for Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT if confirmed, indicating a WIDENING OF THE CONFLICT ZONE. The claim about threatening Ukrainian logistics in Kursk Oblast is a MAJOR CONCERN. This requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION using all available intelligence assets.

2. RUSSIAN FORCES CAPTURE HRYHORIVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • Военкор Котенок (06:00 UTC) claims Russian forces have taken Hryhorivka, north of Chasiv Yar, in the Kramatorsk direction.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a RUSSIAN ADVANCE and INCREASED PRESSURE on Chasiv Yar. This CORRELATES with the earlier report from the Ukrainian General Staff (06:01 UTC) about fighting in this area, lending SOME CREDIBILITY to the claim.
   • Сливочный каприз (06:16 UTC) also reports Russian control of Hryhorivka, providing geolocated imagery and video. Claims Russian forces are expanding their control zone by over 1 km towards the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal.
   • Assessment: INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE ACCURATE, but STILL REQUIRES INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION. The geolocated media provides STRONG EVIDENCE, but VERIFICATION from Ukrainian sources is needed.

3. RUSSIAN SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • Рыбарь (06:00 UTC) provides a morning summary:
     • Claims Russian strikes on targets in the "enemy capital" overnight, with reports of Tu-95MS bomber activity.
     • Confirms reports of Russian forces crossing the border into Sumy Oblast, citing damage to a power substation in Rylsk by Ukrainian drones. Notes fighting in Lebedevka and Pohrebky, with Russian advances in southern Lebedevka.
     • Claims Russian advances south of Chasiv Yar, with Ukrainian forces acknowledging Russian gains near Andriivka.
     • Reports fighting east of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), with Russian advances near Vodiane Druhe and battles near Peschane, south of Pokrovsk.
     • Claims Russian forces are consolidating on the outskirts of Kostiantynopil and continuing their advance.
     • Reports Russian advances near Novosilka and Novoоcheretuvate from Velyka Novosilka.
     • Claims Ukrainian shelling of civilian areas in Kherson Oblast and drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a COMPREHENSIVE RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the battlefield situation, REQUIRING CAREFUL SCRUTINY and VERIFICATION of each claim. Many claims CORROBORATE previous reports, INCREASING THEIR LIKELIHOOD, but INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is essential. The focus on MULTIPLE FRONTS suggests a BROAD RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT.

4. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN LOSSES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:01 UTC) provided a detailed summary of operations and enemy losses: * 122 combat clashes in the past 24 hours. * Claims one Russian missile strike (with two missiles), 87 airstrikes (131 guided aerial bombs), 5757 shellings (140 from MLRS), and over 3000 kamikaze drones. * Lists specific areas of Russian airstrikes across multiple oblasts. * Claims Ukrainian forces struck 13 areas of Russian troop concentration, one air defense system, six artillery systems, a command post, and one "other important object." * Provides details of fighting across multiple directions: Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipilske, and Prydniprovskyi. Notably states no active Russian offensive actions in Huliaipilske and Prydniprovskyi directions. * Reports ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast, with Russian airstrikes and shelling. * Claims 1190 Russian personnel losses, 14 tanks, 14 armored fighting vehicles, 63 artillery systems, 3 MLRS, 6 air defense systems, 160 operational-tactical UAVs, and 136 vehicles destroyed.
   • Assessment: Provides Ukrainian accounts and assessments.

5. UKRAINIAN DRONE DESTROYS RUSSIAN BMP-2 (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

*   *Colonelcassad* (06:03 UTC) shows a video of a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian BMP-2 in the Kupiansk direction, attributed to the 1st Tank Army.

*   **Assessment:** *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*. If confirmed, this demonstrates *CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES* and a *LOSS FOR THE RUSSIAN 1ST TANK ARMY*.

6. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

*   *🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦* (06:04 UTC) reports the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
*   **Assessment:** Indicates the *IMMEDIATE THREAT HAS PASSED*, but *VIGILANCE* should remain.

7. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS ALL CLEAR (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

*   *Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine* (06:05 UTC) reports an "all clear" across all regions.
*   **Assessment:** Indicates a *TEMPORARY REDUCTION* in the *IMMEDIATE AIR THREAT*, but *DOES NOT MEAN THE THREAT HAS ENTIRELY DISAPPEARED*.

8. RUSSIAN FPV DRONE ATTACK IN SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

*   *Kadyrov_95* (06:06 UTC) shows a video of a successful FPV drone attack by the "West-AKHMAT" battalion and OVD personnel in the Sumy direction, claiming several casualties.
*   **Assessment:** *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*. This *CORRELATES* with *OTHER REPORTS* of increased activity in the *SUMY DIRECTION*, but *INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION* is needed.  The use of *FPV DRONES* highlights the *EVOLVING NATURE OF WARFARE*.

9. MESSAGES TO ODESA RESIDENTS ABOUT TRANSITION TO RUSSIAN JURISDICTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, LIKELY DISINFORMATION):

*   *Басурин о главном* (06:06 UTC) reports messages sent to Odesa residents claiming a transition of Ukrainian communication operators to Russian jurisdiction due to agreements between Putin and Trump. Claims this was a result of Russian hacking of the "Lanet" provider.
*   **Assessment:** *HIGHLY LIKELY DISINFORMATION* and part of an *INFORMATION WARFARE CAMPAIGN*. The claim of a Putin-Trump agreement is *IMPLAUSIBLE*.  This is likely an attempt to *SOW CONFUSION* and *UNDERMINE MORALE*.

10. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

*   *Дневник Десантника🇷🇺* (06:07 UTC) cites statements from the Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Rudskoy, claiming:
    *   Russian forces have full initiative, with Ukrainian forces retreating despite reinforcements.
    *   Ukrainian-controlled territory in Kursk Oblast has been reduced by over half, with over 800 square kilometers retaken (64% of the initially captured territory).
    *   Ukrainian losses since the start of the "counteroffensive" in Kursk Oblast are over 62,000 personnel and approximately 5,600 armored vehicles.
*   **Assessment:** *REQUIRES CAREFUL SCRUTINY* and *VERIFICATION*. These are *SIGNIFICANT CLAIMS*, and *RUSSIAN SOURCES* have a history of *EXAGGERATING GAINS AND ENEMY LOSSES*.  *INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION* is *ESSENTIAL*.

11. UKRAINIAN CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

*   *✙DeepState✙🇺🇦* (06:08 UTC) reports accusations against former General Staff officials for embezzling 246 million hryvnia during the development of the "Dzvin" automated control system.
*   **Assessment:** This highlights *INTERNAL ISSUES* within the *UKRAINIAN MILITARY*, potentially *IMPACTING MORALE AND EFFICIENCY*. The report claims the system is flawed and used to justify "warm baths" (likely referring to corruption and inefficiency).

12. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS MISSILE THREAT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

* *Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine* (06:13 UTC) reports a missile threat.
*  **Assessment**: Maintain a *HIGH ALERT STATUS* due to an *ACTIVE MISSILE THREAT.*

13. TRUMP'S CLAIMS ABOUT FAILED MINERAL DEAL (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• STERNENKO (06:14 UTC) reports Trump's claims about a "raw material" deal.
• Assessment: Confirms information.

14. REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IN ODESA (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • РБК-Україна (06:11 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (06:21 UTC) report Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in Odesa for the second consecutive night.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. This is a MAJOR CONCERN, impacting CIVILIAN LIFE and potentially MILITARY OPERATIONS.

15. RUSSIAN SOLDIER SHOWS FLAGS IN HRYHORIVKA (REPORTED):

    • Сливочный каприз (06:16 UTC) reports Russian soldiers showing flags in Hryhorivka.
    • Assessment: If true, indicates Russian control.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. Reports of a Russian breakthrough and advance into Tonenke, potentially threatening Ukrainian logistics.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CAPTURE HRYHORIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): INCREASINGLY LIKELY, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION. Multiple Russian sources claim the capture of Hryhorivka, increasing pressure on Chasiv Yar.
• RUSSIAN FORCES ADVANCE ALONG ENTIRE FRONT LINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Previous reports of Russian activity are still valid, along with a BROAD RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT.
• PUTIN SIGNALS WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Previous reports still valid.
• PUTIN ACCUSES WEST OF INVOLVEMENT IN KTK ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Previous reports are still valid.
• CONTINUED AIR ATTACK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of missile threats in Zaporizhzhia and previous reports are still valid.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: Previous reports are still valid.
• INTENSIFIED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian sources claim significant gains and Ukrainian losses, but this REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Attacks on Odesa energy facilities for the second consecutive night.
• UKRAINIAN CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of embezzlement within the Ukrainian military, potentially impacting morale and efficiency.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence, drone reconnaissance) to CONFIRM the reported Russian breakthrough and advance into Tonenke.
   • Assess the extent of Russian control and the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and LOGISTICAL ROUTES in Kursk Oblast.
   • PREPARE COUNTERMEASURES if necessary, including REINFORCING DEFENSES and PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATIONS.

2. CONFIRM CAPTURE OF HRYHORIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the reported Russian capture of Hryhorivka.
   • Assess the impact on Ukrainian defenses around Chasiv Yar.
   • Adjust defensive strategies as needed.

3. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND LOSSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Independently verify the claims made by Рыбарь and Дневник Десантника regarding Russian advances and Ukrainian losses across multiple fronts.
   • Cross-reference information from multiple sources to IDENTIFY DISCREPANCIES and ASSESS RELIABILITY.
   • Pay particular attention to the claims of significant Ukrainian losses in Kursk Oblast.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain HIGH ALERT STATUS for air defense systems, particularly in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Monitor for further missile launches and PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS to the population.

5. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the damage to energy facilities in Odesa.
   • Implement emergency repairs to RESTORE POWER as quickly as possible.
   • Increase security at energy infrastructure facilities to MITIGATE FUTURE ATTACKS.

6. COUNTER DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Refute the claims about a Putin-Trump agreement and the transition of Ukrainian communication operators to Russian jurisdiction.
   • Promote accurate information about the situation in Odesa and other affected areas.

7. INVESTIGATE UKRAINIAN CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Thoroughly investigate the accusations of embezzlement within the Ukrainian military.
   • Take appropriate action against those found responsible.
   • Implement measures to PREVENT FUTURE CORRUPTION and ENSURE EFFICIENT USE OF RESOURCES.

8. CONTINUE MONITORING AND VERIFICATION EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to monitor all available intelligence sources for updates on the battlefield situation.
   • Verify reports of Russian and Ukrainian actions.
   • Assess the impact of developments on military operations and strategic objectives.

9. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The potential RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST and the CLAIMED CAPTURE OF HRYHORIVKA are MAJOR CONCERNS requiring IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND RESPONSE. CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE and ONGOING AIR THREATS demand CONSTANT VIGILANCE. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION remain ESSENTIAL.