Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 19, 2025, 07:55 UTC
Changes and New Information (07:26 UTC - 07:55 UTC)
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (07:27 UTC) reports continued Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction. Claims include:
Clearing a "pocket" between Zapadnoye and Dvorechnaya.
Expanding control towards Dolgenkoye, Kondrashovka, and Doroshovka. Drone operators are reportedly assisting assault groups and suppressing Ukrainian fire points.
Advances north of Novomlynsk after the liberation of Figolevka.
Intense fighting continues near Sinkovka and Golubovka.
Ukrainian counterattacks south of Topoli.
Positional battles near Zagryzovo, Kopanki, and Zeleny Gai.
Destruction of a British AS-90 self-propelled gun by Russian artillery.
Assessment: This reinforces previous reports of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN PRESSURE in the Kupyansk area. The claimed advances NEED INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION, but the level of detail and multiple location mentions suggest ONGOING, ACTIVE OPERATIONS. The reported destruction of an AS-90 SPG, if confirmed, represents a NOTABLE LOSS for Ukraine. EXTREME PRIORITY to confirm these claims and assess the impact on Ukrainian defenses.
VIDEO OF DESTROYED M113 APC (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, VIDEO PROVIDED):
Colonelcassad (07:33 UTC) shows a video of Russian FPV drone operators targeting a Ukrainian M113 APC near Novoye. The video shows a two-drone attack, with the first disabling the vehicle and the second destroying it.
Assessment: This video CONFIRMS THE CONTINUED EFFECTIVENESS of Russian FPV drones against Ukrainian armored vehicles. The two-drone tactic (disable, then destroy) is NOTEWORTHY and suggests a REFINED APPROACH to counter-armor operations.
UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE SHOOTDOWNS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ASTRA (07:27 UTC) reported the information from Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:56:54), stating that on the night of February 19, 2025, Russia launched a massive drone attack using 167 Shahed-type drones and "decoy" drones from multiple locations in Russia (Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, Millerovo, Shatalovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk). They also report two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile strikes on Sumy Oblast from Voronezh Oblast.
Ukrainian air defenses (aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups) reportedly shot down 106 attack drones in multiple Oblasts: Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Odesa, and Mykolaiv.
56 decoy drones were confirmed to be "lost".
Assessment: This CONFIRMS A MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK.
CLAIMED FSB PLAN TO OVERTHROW ZELENSKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UNVERIFIED):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:28 UTC) reports claims from "Gulagu.net" (Vladimir Osechkin) that the FSB is preparing a plan to overthrow Zelensky by organizing a "Maidan." The report claims this will involve manipulating fake information about Zelensky's rating, corruption, and refusal to negotiate with Russia. It also predicts increased activity from Russian agents and individuals seeking leadership positions. However, the report itself suggests that this "information" could be part of a Russian operation to test public reaction.
Assessment: This is a HIGHLY SPECULATIVE CLAIM from a source known for anti-Kremlin activism. While Russian interference in Ukrainian politics is PLAUSIBLE, the specific claims of a "Maidan" plot NEED INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The suggestion that this is a Russian test of public opinion is NOTEWORTHY. MONITOR CLOSELY for any signs of increased political instability or pro-Russian activity in Ukraine.
Басурин о главном (07:28 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:47 UTC) report the deployment of Russian "Yars" ICBMs on combat patrol routes in the Novosibirsk region. Video is provided. The stated purpose is to "remind the West that Russia is always ready to repel an attack." The report mentions the mobile nature of the system and exercises focused on dispersal in forested areas to enhance concealment.
Assessment: This is a STANDARD RUSSIAN STRATEGIC SIGNALING maneuver. The deployment of ICBMs on patrol routes is NOT UNUSUAL, but it is INTENDED TO BE VISIBLE and to demonstrate readiness. It is a form of NUCLEAR DETERRENCE and should be interpreted as such. DOES NOT INDICATE IMMINENT NUCLEAR USE.
EXPLOSION IN MYKOLAIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Оперативний ЗСУ (07:30 UTC) reports an explosion in Mykolaiv, according to Mayor Senkevich.
Assessment: Given the earlier rocket threat warning, this is HIGHLY LIKELY to be related to a Russian strike. EXTREME PRIORITY to determine the cause, target, and impact of the explosion. CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NEEDED.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN FORCES (REPORTED, VIDEO PROVIDED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (07:30 UTC) shows video of a drone strike, claiming it is from the "Rubikon Centre."
Assessment: The video CONFIRMS ongoing Russian drone operations.
UKRAINIAN SOLDIER SHOOTS DOWN DRONE WITH RPG (REPORTED, VIDEO PROVIDED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Воин DV (07:30 UTC) shows a video of a soldier from the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group, with the call sign "Legion," reportedly shooting down a Ukrainian FPV drone with an RPG near Velikaya Novoselka. The report claims the soldiers use custom-made ammunition (steel balls) in their rifles. It also mentions that Ukrainian drones carry improvised explosive devices and mines.
Assessment: This is UNUSUAL and HIGHLY RISKY. Using an RPG to shoot down a drone is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS due to the backblast and is NOT A STANDARD TACTIC. The claimed use of custom ammunition is NOTEWORTHY and suggests potential resourcefulness or a lack of standard anti-drone equipment. FURTHER ANALYSIS NEEDED to determine the plausibility and effectiveness of this tactic.
ROCKET ALERT IN TOKMAK (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (07:54 UTC) reports a rocket alert in Tokmak.
Оперативний ЗСУ (07:30 UTC) shows a message stating it is Ukraine's Independence Day.
Assessment: This can be taken as a sign of INCREASED MORALE.
REPORTS ON UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (07:42 UTC) states that the region of Cherkasy had damaged power lines.
Zelenskiy / Official (07:42 UTC), РБК-Україна (07:45 UTC), and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (07:46 UTC) report that 160,000 people in Odesa are without power.
Assessment: The threat to civilians has INCREASED.
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (07:38 UTC) shows pictures of soldiers repairing equipment.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS.
Updated Situation Summary
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KUPYANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE - REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports indicate SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN PRESSURE and potential advances in the Kupyansk area. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
EXPLOSION IN MYKOLAIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):LIKELY A RUSSIAN STRIKE. IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT NEEDED.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Video evidence confirms the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones against Ukrainian armored vehicles. Reports of unusual Ukrainian counter-drone tactics (RPG, custom ammunition) NEED FURTHER ANALYSIS.
POTENTIAL FSB PLAN TO OVERTHROW ZELENSKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UNVERIFIED):HIGHLY SPECULATIVE CLAIM. MONITOR CLOSELY for any signs of increased political instability.
RUSSIAN "YARS" ICBM DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):STANDARD STRATEGIC SIGNALING. DOES NOT INDICATE IMMINENT NUCLEAR USE.
MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russia launched a LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK across Ukraine, using both attack and "decoy" drones. Ukrainian air defenses claim a high interception rate, but damage is reported in multiple Oblasts. SYZRAN OIL REFINERY is confirmed to have suffered significant damage and a temporary shutdown.
CONTINUED FIGHTING IN MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports indicate ongoing combat in various locations, including:
Kursk Region: Russian claims of capturing Sverdlikovo and controlling a key road are reinforced.
Kharkiv Oblast: Russian claims of advances near Dvurechnaya and Zapadnoye, and strikes in Tsapovka. Confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes in Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast: Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar, with Russian special forces reportedly involved. Russian claims of advances near Kurakhove, including several villages.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued shelling and airstrikes.
UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Successful strikes inside Russia (Syzran Oil Refinery) and targeting of Russian military assets (Tor-M2) are confirmed. Drone incursions into Russian territory continue.
RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATIONS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, MONITOR): Pro-Russian narratives emphasize Russian military successes, criticize Ukrainian leadership, and promote the idea of a Russian "attrition" strategy aimed at weakening the West. Medvedev's claim about a potential "dirty bomb" remains a major concern.
US-RUSSIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, MONITOR): Trump's statements indicate a potential shift in US policy towards a negotiated settlement, possibly involving territorial concessions by Ukraine. This DEMANDS CAREFUL ANALYSIS.
UKRAINIAN FORCES SUFFER CASUALTIES AND EQUIPMENT LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):
Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa, including homes, schools, and medical facilities. Multiple civilian casualties, including children.
REQUESTS FOR EQUIPMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Russian Airborne Forces are requesting a UAZ vehicle.
UKRAINIAN TRAINING OPERATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Ukrainian soldiers are conducting training operations.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Russian forces are continuing to advance.
ROCKET THREAT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Mykolaiv is under a rocket threat.
ROCKET ALERT (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Tokmak is under rocket alert.
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO EXPLOSION IN MYKOLAIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Determine the cause, target, and impact of the explosion in Mykolaiv.
Assess casualties and damage.
Provide immediate assistance to affected civilians.
Increase air defense readiness in MYKOLAIV OBLAST.
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KUPYANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all intelligence assets (HUMINT, SIGINT, satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Russian advances.
Focus on verifying control of the "pocket" between Zapadnoye and Dvorechnaya, and advances towards Dolgenkoye, Kondrashovka, and Doroshovka.
Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive lines and the potential for further Russian breakthroughs.
Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in areas threatened by Russian advances, particularly in the KURSK REGION (Sverdlikovo), KHARKIV OBLAST (Dvurechnaya, Zapadnoye), and DONETSK OBLAST (Kurakhove area).
Conduct counter-offensives where possible to disrupt Russian momentum and regain lost territory.
Verify all Russian claims of advances and territorial control.
Gather further intelligence on the reported use of RPGs and custom ammunition to shoot down drones.
Assess the effectiveness and risks of these tactics.
Determine if this is a widespread practice or an isolated incident.
Develop safer and more effective counter-drone methods.
MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Track social media and news reports for any signs of increased protests, political infighting, or pro-Russian activity.
Assess the credibility of reports claiming an FSB plot to overthrow Zelensky.
MAINTAIN AWARENESS OF RUSSIAN STRATEGIC SIGNALING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Monitor Russian military deployments, including ICBM patrols.
Interpret these actions in the context of broader Russian strategy and messaging.
Maintain appropriate levels of readiness without overreacting to routine maneuvers.
RESPOND TO MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain maximum air defense readiness across Ukraine, prioritizing critical infrastructure and population centers.
Thoroughly assess damage and casualties from the drone strikes, particularly in Odesa, Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Zaporizhzhia.
Analyze the effectiveness of air defense responses, including the impact of "decoy" drones. Identify any weaknesses or gaps and implement improvements.
Provide immediate assistance to affected civilians, including medical care, shelter, and essential supplies.
Prioritize strikes on high-value Russian targets, including air defense systems, logistical hubs, and command centers.
Expand drone operations inside Russia to target critical infrastructure and disrupt military operations.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The EXPLOSION IN MYKOLAIV requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KUPYANSK are a MAJOR CONCERN and NEED URGENT VERIFICATION. The CONTINUED EFFECTIVENESS OF RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE is HIGHLIGHTED by the video of the M113 destruction. The POTENTIAL FOR POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN UKRAINE needs CAREFUL MONITORING. RUSSIAN STRATEGIC SIGNALING with ICBMs is NOTEWORTHY but DOES NOT INDICATE IMMINENT NUCLEAR USE. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, and EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING are ESSENTIAL.
