Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:56:54) and Оперативний ЗСУ (06:58:33) report that on the night of February 19, 2025 (starting from 20:00 on February 18), Russia launched a massive drone attack using 167 Shahed-type drones and "decoy" drones from multiple locations in Russia (Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, Millerovo, Shatalovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk). They also report two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile strikes on Sumy Oblast from Voronezh Oblast.
Ukrainian air defenses (aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups) reportedly shot down 106 attack drones in multiple Oblasts: Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Odesa, and Mykolaiv.
56 decoy drones were confirmed to be "lost".
Damage was reported in Odesa, Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
РБК-Україна (06:59:21) also reports.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS A MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK. The scale is SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER than recent attacks. The use of "decoy" drones is notable, suggesting an attempt to overwhelm air defenses. The reported interception rate is high, but the damage in multiple Oblasts indicates that some drones penetrated defenses. EXTREME PRIORITY to assess the extent of damage and casualties, and to analyze the effectiveness of air defense responses.
Оперативний ЗСУ (06:56:17) shows video of the Syzran Oil Refinery still burning.
ТАСС (06:50:39) reports that the consequences of the drone attack on the Syzran Oil Refinery have been "eliminated," with no casualties, according to the governor.
ASTRA (07:14:08) reports, citing sources, that the refinery has temporarily suspended operations due to damage to a primary oil processing unit (AVT-6) caused by a drone attack.
* Assessment: This confirms a SIGNIFICANT IMPACT on the Syzran Oil Refinery, despite claims of "eliminated consequences." The temporary shutdown and damage to a key unit WILL LIKELY DISRUPT FUEL PRODUCTION. The conflicting reports from official Russian sources and independent sources like ASTRA highlight the importance of independent verification.
ROCKET THREAT IN MYKOLAIV OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:54:27) states Mykolaiv Oblast is under rocket attack.
Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (06:57:01) claims that Western "war propagandists" have misunderstood Russia's strategy in Ukraine as a sign of weakness. Putkonen asserts that Russia is deliberately pursuing a war of attrition to demilitarize not only Ukraine but also the entire West.
Assessment: This is a PRO-RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the conflict. While the claim of deliberate attrition warfare is plausible, the assertion that Russia is successfully demilitarizing the entire West is HIGHLY EXAGGERATED AND LIKELY PROPAGANDA. It is important to consider this as a potential Russian information operation.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (06:46:40) states that Ukrainian operators are returning to the front.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Сливочный каприз (06:48:09) reports that Russian forces occupied Sverdlikovo, expanded their zone of control near Dvurechnaya, attacked south of Lozova, took control of a mine, expanded their zone of control near Uspenivka, and attacked in the direction of Ulakly and Konstantinovopol.
Assessment: This suggests CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
Kadyrov_95 (06:36:29) reports that drone operators are destroying equipment.
Assessment: This indicates ONGOING FIGHTING.
DRONE DESTROYED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (06:34:54) reports another drone being destroyed.
Assessment: This suggests CONTINUED COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS.
DRONE STRIKES IN RUSSIA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (06:42:01) reports drones are being shot down in Russia.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN DRONE INCURSIONS into Russian territory.
RUSSIAN MILITARY STRATEGY CRITICIZED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Филолог в засаде (00:10 UTC) criticizes Russian military strategy.
Assessment: This shows there may be SYSTEMIC WEAKNESSES in the Russian military effort.
UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF CASUALTIES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Сили оборони Півдня України (07:00:00) states there were 175 casualties and damage to a variety of locations and equipment.
Assessment: The threat to civilians has INCREASED.
UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYED EQUIPMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (06:49:06) claims a variety of equipment has been destroyed.
Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (06:50:03) report on ongoing training.
Assessment: These CONFIRM CONTINUED UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYED UKRAINIAN AMMUNITION DEPOT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (07:04:59) reports that Russian forces destroyed an ammunition depot.
Assessment: This shows that there is CONTINUED FIGHTING.
Updated Situation Summary
MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russia launched a LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK across Ukraine, using both attack and "decoy" drones. Ukrainian air defenses claim a high interception rate, but damage is reported in multiple Oblasts. SYZRAN OIL REFINERY is confirmed to have suffered significant damage and a temporary shutdown.
CONTINUED FIGHTING IN MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports indicate ongoing combat in various locations, including:
Kursk Region: Russian claims of capturing Sverdlikovo and controlling a key road are reinforced.
Kharkiv Oblast: Russian claims of advances near Dvurechnaya and Zapadnoye, and strikes in Tsapovka. Confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes in Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast: Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar, with Russian special forces reportedly involved. Russian claims of advances near Kurakhove, including several villages.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued shelling and airstrikes.
UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Successful strikes inside Russia (Syzran Oil Refinery) and targeting of Russian military assets (Tor-M2) are confirmed. Drone incursions into Russian territory continue.
RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATIONS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, MONITOR): Pro-Russian narratives emphasize Russian military successes, criticize Ukrainian leadership, and promote the idea of a Russian "attrition" strategy aimed at weakening the West. Medvedev's claim about a potential "dirty bomb" remains a major concern.
US-RUSSIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, MONITOR): Trump's statements indicate a potential shift in US policy towards a negotiated settlement, possibly involving territorial concessions by Ukraine. This DEMANDS CAREFUL ANALYSIS.
UKRAINIAN FORCES SUFFER CASUALTIES AND EQUIPMENT LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):
Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa, including homes, schools, and medical facilities. Multiple civilian casualties, including children.
REQUESTS FOR EQUIPMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Russian Airborne Forces are requesting a UAZ vehicle.
UKRAINIAN TRAINING OPERATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Ukrainian soldiers are conducting training operations.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Russian forces are continuing to advance.
ROCKET THREAT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Mykolaiv is under a rocket threat.
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain maximum air defense readiness across Ukraine, prioritizing critical infrastructure and population centers.
Thoroughly assess damage and casualties from the drone strikes, particularly in Odesa, Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Zaporizhzhia.
Analyze the effectiveness of air defense responses, including the impact of "decoy" drones. Identify any weaknesses or gaps and implement improvements.
Provide immediate assistance to affected civilians, including medical care, shelter, and essential supplies.
Increase the number of mobile fire groups.
Increase air defense readiness in MYKOLAIV OBLAST.
Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in areas threatened by Russian advances, particularly in the KURSK REGION (Sverdlikovo), KHARKIV OBLAST (Dvurechnaya, Zapadnoye), and DONETSK OBLAST (Kurakhove area).
Conduct counter-offensives where possible to disrupt Russian momentum and regain lost territory.
Verify all Russian claims of advances and territorial control.
Prioritize strikes on high-value Russian targets, including air defense systems, logistical hubs, and command centers.
Expand drone operations inside Russia to target critical infrastructure and disrupt military operations.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK represents a MAJOR ESCALATION and demonstrates Russia's continued ability to strike deep inside Ukraine. The CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO THE SYZRAN OIL REFINERY will have SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC AND LOGISTICAL CONSEQUENCES. RUSSIAN ADVANCES in multiple regions are putting INCREASING PRESSURE on Ukrainian defenses. MEDVEDEV'S CLAIM ABOUT A POTENTIAL "DIRTY BOMB" remains a CRITICAL CONCERN. TRUMP'S STATEMENTS indicate a POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to address these threats and mitigate their impact.
