Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 22:55 UTC

Changes and New Information (22:26 UTC - 22:55 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN ASSAULT ON CHASIV YAR (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Воин DV (22:26 UTC) reports, with video, an assault by the 331st Airborne Regiment (98th Airborne Division) on the Refractory Plant in Chasiv Yar. The video purportedly shows the expulsion of Ukrainian forces.
   • Assessment: This indicates a NEW OFFENSIVE AXIS or a RENEWAL OF PREVIOUSLY STALLED EFFORTS in the CHASIV YAR DIRECTION. The Refractory Plant is a STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT INDUSTRIAL FACILITY, control of which could provide FIRE CONTROL OVER SURROUNDING AREAS and potentially DISRUPT UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. REQUIRES VERIFICATION of the extent of Russian control. The video provides some visual evidence, but the situation on the ground is likely fluid.

2. CONFLICTING STATEMENTS ON PUTIN FROM US SENATORS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (22:29 UTC) contrasts Trump's statements with those of Republican Senator Roger Wicker, who calls Putin a war criminal who should be imprisoned or executed. Wicker asserts Russia only understands self-interest.
   • Assessment: This highlights the DEEP DIVISIONS WITHIN THE US POLITICAL LANDSCAPE regarding the approach to Russia and the conflict. Wicker's stance is SIGNIFICANTLY MORE HAWKISH than Trump's, demonstrating the LACK OF CONSENSUS on US policy. This INTERNAL DISAGREEMENT can be EXPLOITED by Russia.

3. ODESA POWER OUTAGES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (22:29 UTC) reports local power outages in Odesa and the region after the drone attack. DTEK confirms no scheduled outages from Ukrenergo.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UNSCHEDULED OUTAGES due to DAMAGE FROM THE DRONE ATTACK, but suggests the damage may not be widespread enough to require system-wide stabilization measures. This highlights the RESILIENCE OF THE GRID, but also its VULNERABILITY to targeted attacks.

4. TRUMP'S "4%" CLAIM REITERATED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • НгП раZVедка (22:30 UTC) reiterates Trump's claim of a 4% approval rating for Zelensky and calls for elections.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN aimed at UNDERMINING ZELENSKY'S LEGITIMACY. The repetition of this likely false claim suggests a coordinated effort.

5. FLU SEASON IN RUSSIA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (22:33 UTC) reports the flu and ARVI season in Russia is expected to end by mid-March, with a predictable structure of morbidity.
   • Assessment: This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS that the ARVI OUTBREAK is NOT CURRENTLY A MAJOR FACTOR affecting military readiness, although continued monitoring is warranted.

6. TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (22:39 UTC) reports Trump expects a meeting with Putin before the end of February.

7. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (22:44 UTC) announces the lifting of the air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region.
   • Assessment: This indicates a REDUCTION IN THE IMMEDIATE THREAT in that area, although vigilance should remain high.

8. TRUMP SAYS HE CAN MEET WITH PUTIN (REPORTED):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (22:47 UTC) reports Trump saying that he can meet with Putin before the end of the month. He claims there is more destruction in Ukraine than Gaza, and that the Russians attack Ukraine only on 20%. * Assessment: This claim needs independent verification.

9. DRONE THREAT IN CHERKASY REGION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:52 UTC) warns of a drone threat in the Zvenyhorodskyi and Umanskyi districts of Cherkasy Oblast.
   • Assessment: The drone attacks are ONGOING.

10. MORE DRONE MOVEMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Nikolaevsky Vanyok (22:53 UTC) reports:
      • One drone in the north of Odessa Oblast moving to Vinnytsia.
      • Two drones north of Cherkasy, west course.
      • Three drones near Smila.
      • Three drones north of Kremenchuk, northwest course.
      • Eight drones from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
      • Three drones near Nizhyn.
        • Two drones have passed Pryluki towards Kyiv Oblast.
      • Two drones from Poltava Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN FORCES ASSAULT CHASIV YAR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces are reportedly assaulting the Refractory Plant in Chasiv Yar, a strategically important industrial facility.
• CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple waves of drones continue to target various regions. Drone threat extends to the CHERKASY REGION.
• ODESA POWER OUTAGES CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Localized power outages are reported in Odesa and the region due to drone attack damage.
• DEEP DIVISIONS IN US ON RUSSIA POLICY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Conflicting statements from US senators highlight the lack of consensus on approaching Russia and the conflict.
• TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Trump expects to meet with Putin before the end of February.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED ASSAULT ON CHASIV YAR (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the situation at the Refractory Plant in Chasiv Yar. Determine the extent of Russian control and Ukrainian defensive capabilities.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area if necessary.
   • Prepare for potential counterattacks to regain control of the facility.
   • Assess the impact of the potential loss of the facility on Ukrainian logistics and fire control.

2. CONTINUE TO COUNTER DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect. MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED AIR DEFENSE READINESS, particularly in CHERKASY OBLAST and other threatened areas.

3. ADDRESS POWER OUTAGES IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Continue previous efforts to assess damage and restore power.

4. MONITOR US POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Track statements and actions from US political figures regarding Russia and the conflict, and assess their potential impact on US policy and support for Ukraine.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS and the REPORTED RUSSIAN ASSAULT ON CHASIV YAR are the MOST URGENT CONCERNS. RAPID RESPONSE, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are crucial.