Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 22:25 UTC
Changes and New Information (21:55 UTC - 22:25 UTC)
TRUMP'S STATEMENTS ON UKRAINE, CONTINUED (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ASTRA (21:57 UTC) and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (21:58 UTC) report further on Trump's statements, largely reiterating previous points:
Ukraine could have avoided territorial losses by negotiating earlier.
Trump personally likes Zelensky, but criticizes his leadership.
Trump claims Zelensky's rating is 4%.
Ukraine needs to account for US funds.
Russia doesn't want to destroy Kyiv.
No US troops in Ukraine, but European troops are acceptable.
Trump criticizes Zelensky as "incompetent," using the term "black mark from a bulldozer to an elephant"(Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка).
Assessment: These reports REINFORCE the previously established pattern of Trump's PRO-RUSSIAN STANCE and CRITICISM OF UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP. The claim of only 4% support for Zelensky is likely false and intended to undermine his legitimacy. The video of Trump speaking confirms his statements.
FIGHTING IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок (22:01 UTC) reports Ukrainian counterattacks near Tarasovka and Yelyzavetivka failed, with losses. Russian forces are advancing near Yelyzavetivka and attacking towards Malynivka and Tarasovka.
Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports of INTENSE FIGHTING in the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The reported Ukrainian failures suggest a CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE and INCREASED PRESSURE on Ukrainian defenses.
EXPLOSIONS IN ODESA (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (22:01, 22:15 UTC) reports explosions in Odesa.
Alex Parker Returns (22:02 UTC) claims a strike on a substation supplying power to industrial facilities, combined with missile and drone attacks.
Assessment:CONFIRMSCONTINUED ATTACKS on ODESA, targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. This aligns with previous reports of a MAJOR DRONE ATTACK and a LARGE FIRE in the city.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:01 UTC) provides a detailed update on drone movements:
West Sumy region, southwest course.
North and south Chernihiv region, west/southwest course.
Border of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions, west course.
Border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions, west course.
East and north Kyiv region, west/southwest course.
Southeast and northwest Poltava region, northwest/south/southwest course.
Border of Kirovohrad and Mykolaiv regions, west course.
East Cherkasy region, west course.
Center Mykolaiv region, west/northwest course.
Black Sea, heading towards Odesa (south of Odesa city).
Assessment: This confirms a MASSIVE AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS across Ukraine. The report highlights the COMPLEXITY of the attack, with drones approaching from VARIOUS DIRECTIONS and CHANGING COURSE.
FIGHTING IN DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок (22:04 UTC) reports fighting for Uspenivka (Russian control of two streets) and Novooleksandrivka. Russian advances southwest of Nadezhdynka towards Kotlyarivka. Fighting for Preobrazhenka and Zaporizhzhia (clearing operations).
Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION, with fighting in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. The reported advances and clearing operations suggest RUSSIAN GAINS in some areas.
KYIV REGION DRONE ALERT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (22:06 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (22:09) report drone movement in the Kyiv region, with air defense active.
**Assessment:** This *EXPANDS* the area under *DRONE THREAT* to include the *KYIV REGION*, indicating a *WIDER SCOPE* of the Russian attack. The activation of air defenses confirms the *IMMEDIATE THREAT*.
UKRAINIAN FORCES USING NATO WEAPONRY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (22:07 UTC) reports the Kherson region governor stating that Ukrainian forces are using all NATO-supplied weaponry to force residents out of the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Three drones moving from Mykolaiv region to Odesa region.
Two drones heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
Three drones south of Kremenchuk, west course.
Eight drones near Poltava.
Seven drones from Poltava region moving to Kyiv region.
Six drones south of Konotop.
Five drones from Chernihiv region moving to Kyiv region.
Two drones in north Dnipropetrovsk region.
* One drone south of Samara, west course.
* Assessment: The drone attack is ONGOING AND COMPLEX, with multiple waves and shifting directions. ODESA remains a PRIMARY TARGET, but the threat is SPREADING TO OTHER REGIONS, including KYIV. The LARGE NUMBER OF DRONES involved suggests a COORDINATED AND SUSTAINED ATTACK.
POWER OUTAGES IN ODESA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ASTRA (22:16 UTC) reports power outages in several districts of Odesa after Russian attacks, citing DTEK.
**Assessment:** This *CONFIRMS THE IMPACT* of the attacks on *CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE*, causing *POWER DISRUPTIONS* in *ODESA*.
Updated Situation Summary
MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone attack is ongoing, with multiple regions under threat. ODESA is under RENEWED ATTACK and experiencing POWER OUTAGES. KYIV REGION is now also under DRONE THREAT, with air defenses active. The attack is COMPLEX, with drones approaching from VARIOUS DIRECTIONS and CHANGING COURSE.
TRUMP'S STATEMENTS REINFORCE PRO-RUSSIAN STANCE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Trump continues to criticize Ukrainian leadership and question US aid, reinforcing his pro-Russian bias.
CONTINUED FIGHTING IN POKROVSK AND DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces are reportedly making advances and conducting clearing operations in multiple locations.
ALL PREVIOUS SUMMARIES REMAIN VALID, PRIORITIES ADJUSTED.
Updated Recommendations
CONTINUE TO COUNTER THE MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect. PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF ODESA and KYIV, given the new threats.
Maintain maximum air defense readiness across all threatened regions.
Continuously monitor drone movements and adjust defenses accordingly.
Utilize all available resources to intercept drones and minimize damage.
ADDRESS POWER OUTAGES IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Assess the extent of damage to the power grid.
Deploy repair crews to restore power as quickly as possible.
Provide support to affected civilians.
MONITOR FIGHTING IN POKROVSK AND DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Gather further intelligence on Russian advances and troop concentrations.
Reinforce Ukrainian positions where necessary.
Prepare for potential counter-offensives.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUING DRONE ATTACK, with its EXPANDING SCOPE and IMPACT ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, is the HIGHEST PRIORITY. RAPID RESPONSE, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are crucial.
