Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 21:55 UTC
Changes and New Information (21:25 UTC - 21:55 UTC)
RUSSIAN MILITARY ASSESSMENT AND PROPOSED IMPROVEMENTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок (21:26 UTC) provides an extensive analysis of the ongoing conflict, framed as "Special Military Operation – first series. A big war is ahead. II". Key points:
Negotiations Depend on Putin: All agreements will be signed only with Vladimir Putin, highlighting his perceived authority and role as guarantor.
Distrust of Western Intentions: The West is believed to be waiting for a change in Russian leadership to renegotiate any agreements.
Critique of Russian Military Performance: Concerns are raised about the lack of fundamental changes in the Russian army, despite territorial gains. Specific criticisms include:
Reliance on column-based assaults.
Inadequate attention to personnel limitations.
Insufficient air defense capabilities (specifically referencing a potential first strike of 1000 "Tomahawk" cruise missiles).
Outdated or ineffective equipment (criticizing the "Pantsir" air defense system).
Lack of development in drone warfare.
Refusal of Belarus to supply "Polonez" multiple rocket launchers.
Need for new BMPs and logistics vehicles.
Outdated combat regulations.
Recommendations for Improvement:
Establishment of new air defense lines.
Modernization of air defense systems ("Buk", "Tor").
Consideration of Chinese and Korean developments in Soviet-era weaponry.
Reintroduction of assault guns (self-propelled artillery).
Expanded drone production.
Persuading Belarus to supply "Polonez" systems.
Development of new BMPs and logistics vehicles.
Revision of combat regulations.
Framing the Conflict as a Prelude: The current situation is presented as only the "first series," implying a larger, more significant conflict is to come.
Assessment: This provides VALUABLE INSIGHT into RUSSIAN MILITARY THINKING and PERCEIVED WEAKNESSES. The criticisms are SIGNIFICANT, acknowledging MAJOR CHALLENGES in equipment, tactics, and strategy. The framing of the conflict as a prelude suggests a LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE and a PREPARATION FOR ESCALATION. The call for modernization and reliance on allies (Belarus, China, Korea) is notable. The post reveals potential INTERNAL DISSATISFACTION with the progress and conduct of the war.
TRUMP STATEMENTS ON UKRAINE (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Numerous sources (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, STERNENKO) report various statements by Donald Trump regarding the conflict:
Willingness to Send Peacekeepers: Trump stated he would consider sending US peacekeepers to Ukraine ( Оперативний ЗСУ 21:27, ТАСС 21:24).
Disappointment with Kyiv's Reaction to Talks: Trump expressed disappointment over Kyiv's alleged dissatisfaction with US-Russia negotiations (ТАСС 21:28).
Praise for Russia's Performance in Talks: Trump described Russia's performance at the meeting in Saudi Arabia as "very good" and claimed Russia wants to stop the war ( РБК-Україна 21:28).
Claim of Korean Troops Fighting for Russia: Trump acknowledged Korean troops fighting on Russia's side and suffering significant losses ( РБК-Україна 21:28).
Promise of Full Casualty Figures: Trump stated that "soon you will see" the full figures of troop losses ( РБК-Україна 21:28).
No American Troops: Trump stated that he does not mind Europeans troops in Ukraine, but that there would be no American troops. (РБК-Україна 21:30).
Territorial Concessions: Trump claimed the war could have been resolved years ago without territorial losses (РБК-Україна 21:32).
Support for Ukrainian Elections: Trump supported the need for elections in Ukraine ( РБК-Україна 21:32).
Criticism of Zelensky's Leadership: Trump criticized Zelensky's leadership as ineffective (РБК-Україна 21:51).
Criticism of Biden's Leadership: Trump criticized Biden's leadership as incompetent (РБК-Україна 21:54).
Claim of Russia not Wanting to Destroy Kyiv: Trump claimed Russia did not want to destroy Kyiv and could have done so if they wanted (Оперативний ЗСУ 21:39, РБК-Україна 21:43).
Ukraine should pay back money, find missing funds: Trump claimed that Zelensky did not know where half of the money given by the US was and that Ukraine has to find this money or pay back to the US (РБК-Україна 21:46).
Potential Meeting with Putin: Trump stated he might meet with Putin before the end of the month (Оперативний ЗСУ 21:53, РБК-Україна 21:55).
Claim of 4% Support for Zelensky: Trump stated that Zelensky's support is only 4% (РБК-Україна 21:37).
Assessment: These statements represent a MAJOR POTENTIAL SHIFT in US policy towards the conflict under a Trump presidency. They suggest a PRO-RUSSIAN BIAS, a willingness to ENGAGE DIRECTLY WITH PUTIN, and a DISREGARD FOR UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY (implied by the claim that the war could have been resolved without territorial losses). The criticisms of Zelensky and the Ukrainian government are SEVERE. The claims about Korean troops and casualty figures REQUIRE VERIFICATION. The potential meeting with Putin is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT and could have MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for the conflict. The possibility of US peacekeepers, while mentioned, is contradicted by another statement ruling out American troops. The claim of only 4% support for Zelensky is likely false and intended to undermine his legitimacy.
CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS ON ODESA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Nikolaevsky Vanyok (21:33, 21:45) reports six, then three, drones headed towards southern parts of Odesa from the sea.
Assessment:REINFORCES previous reports of a CONTINUING AND INTENSE DRONE ATTACK on Odesa.
DRONE ALERT FOR POLTAVA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:33 UTC) report drone threats for Poltava from the northeast.
Assessment:EXPANDS the area under DRONE THREAT, confirming the WIDE-RANGING NATURE of the attack.
DAMAGE REPORT FROM ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (21:34 UTC) posts photos showing the aftermath of a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia, depicting fire damage to a building and firefighters responding.
Assessment:CONFIRMS DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in Zaporizhzhia, likely from a previous strike.
FIRE IN ODESSA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (21:37 UTC) posts videos and photos showing a large fire in Odesa after a drone attack.
Assessment:CONFIRMS the IMPACT of the drone attacks on ODESA, causing a MAJOR FIRE.
Updated Situation Summary
MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone attack is ongoing, with multiple regions still under threat. ODESA remains under INTENSE ATTACK from drones approaching from the Black Sea. POLTAVA is now also under DRONE THREAT.
RUSSIAN MILITARY SELF-ASSESSMENT REVEALS CRITICAL WEAKNESSES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): A detailed Russian military analysis acknowledges major shortcomings in equipment, tactics, and strategy, and calls for significant modernization.
TRUMP STATEMENTS INDICATE POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Trump's statements suggest a pro-Russian stance, a willingness to engage with Putin, and potential disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty.
DAMAGE CONFIRMED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED): Photos confirm fire damage to civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia.
LARGE FIRE IN ODESSA (CONFIRMED): Videos and photos confirm a major fire in Odesa following the drone attack.
ALL PREVIOUS SUMMARIES REMAIN VALID, PRIORITIES ADJUSTED.
Updated Recommendations
CONTINUE TO COUNTER THE MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect. PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF ODESA and POLTAVA, given the new threats.
ANALYZE RUSSIAN MILITARY SELF-ASSESSMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Thoroughly examine the criticisms and recommendations outlined in the Russian military analysis.
Identify potential vulnerabilities that can be exploited.
Assess the implications of the call for modernization and reliance on allies.
Monitor for any signs of changes in Russian tactics or equipment.
MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS RELATED TO TRUMP'S STATEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Gather further intelligence on Trump's potential meeting with Putin.
Assess the potential impact on US policy and the overall conflict.
Prepare for potential changes in US support for Ukraine.
Verify claims about Korean troops and casualty figures.
ADDRESS DAMAGE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND ODESSA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Continue damage assessment and PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to affected civilians.
Restore power and essential services as quickly as possible.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUING DRONE ATTACK, the REVELATIONS FROM THE RUSSIAN MILITARY SELF-ASSESSMENT, and the POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY indicated by Trump's statements are the HIGHEST PRIORITIES. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE MILITARY ACTION are crucial. The POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION remains HIGH.
