Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 20:55 UTC

Changes and New Information (20:25 UTC - 20:55 UTC)

1. DRONE THREAT FROM BLACK SEA TOWARDS ODESA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:25 UTC) reports a threat of enemy drone attacks from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
   • Nikolaevsky Vanyok (20:52, 20:54 UTC) reports 2, then 4 drones approaching Chernomorsk/Odesa.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. The threat from the BLACK SEA indicates a DIFFERENT AXIS OF ATTACK compared to the earlier drone movements reported from the north and east. This requires IMMEDIATE REDIRECTION OF AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to protect Odesa Oblast.

2. POWER OUTAGE IN ODESA, DRONE ATTACKS, FIRE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Operativnyi ZSU (20:55 UTC) report a power outage in Odesa due to a massive drone attack, with a fire reported.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the IMPACT of the drone attacks on Odesa. A power outage is a SERIOUS DISRUPTION, affecting both civilian life and potentially military operations. The fire indicates DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE.

3. EXPLOSIONS IN KYIV, AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Operativnyi ZSU (20:31 UTC), RBC-Ukraine (20:34 UTC), TASS (20:35 UTC), Operativnyi ZSU (20:41 UTC), and KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) (20:36 UTC) report explosions and air defense activity in Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUED THREAT to KYIV, likely from the drones reported earlier moving towards the city. The activation of air defense systems suggests an ONGOING ENGAGEMENT.

4. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, DRONE THREAT REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:27 UTC) reports the lifting of the ballistic missile threat, but the drone threat remains in areas where an air raid alert was declared.
   • Assessment: This is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT regarding the ballistic missile threat, but the DRONE THREAT REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN.

5. CONTINUED GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:29 UTC) reports continued launches of guided bombs in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES the ONGOING THREAT from air-delivered munitions in these regions.

6. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURING ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:33 UTC) claims that the Russian army has captured Ulakly in the Andreevsky "pocket" on the Dnipropetrovsk direction, with Ukrainian forces unable to withdraw all troops. Cites Ukrainian military analyst B. Miroshnikov.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would be a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE, further consolidating their control in this area.

7. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF DESTROYING BRIDGE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Воин DV (20:33) reports destruction of the bridge, stating the attack happened around 11:00. * Assessment: Confirmed.

8. NEW DRONE GROUPS REPORTED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:33) reports more drone movements. * Assessment: Confirms the complexity of the attack.

9. RUSSIAN CLAIMS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • MoD Russia (20:32) reports.
   • Assessment: Confirms the Russian military reporting.

10. DRONES TOWARD POLTAVA AND KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:35), Operativnyi ZSU (20:38) reports the movements.
    • Assessment: Threat in these areas confirmed.

11. DRONES TOWARD ODESSA, CHORNOMORSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • *Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine* (20:40), *Operativnyi ZSU* (20:42).
      

    • **Assessment:** Threat confirmed.
      

Updated Situation Summary

• DRONE ATTACK ON ODESA OBLAST FROM BLACK SEA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A NEW AXIS OF ATTACK poses a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to Odesa. POWER OUTAGE AND FIRE reported in Odesa, confirming IMPACT of the attack.
• EXPLOSIONS AND AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONTINUED THREAT to Kyiv, likely from drones.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, DRONE THREAT REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone threat REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN across multiple regions.
• CONTINUED GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): ONGOING THREAT in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURING ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Potentially a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
• FIRST CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF NORTH KOREAN SPG IN LUHANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a MAJOR TACTICAL AND PROPAGANDA VICTORY for Ukraine.
• EXTENSIVE DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): WIDESPREAD AND COMPLEX DRONE ATTACKS continue, with new groups reported.
• ALL OTHER PREVIOUS SUMMARIES REMAIN VALID, PRIORITIES ADJUSTED.

Updated Recommendations

1. PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE IN ODESA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately redirect air defense assets to PROTECT ODESA OBLAST from the drone threat approaching from the BLACK SEA.
   • Focus on protecting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • Issue clear warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

2. ASSESS DAMAGE AND RESTORE POWER IN ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the extent of the damage caused by the drone attacks in Odesa.
   • Begin efforts to restore power as quickly as possible.
   • Provide assistance to affected civilians.

3. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain maximum air defense readiness across Ukraine, as the DRONE THREAT REMAINS WIDESPREAD AND COMPLEX.
   • Continue to monitor drone movements and ADJUST AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly.
   • Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.

4. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CAPTURING ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claim.
   • Assess the implications for Ukrainian defensive positions in the area.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The DRONE ATTACK ON ODESA FROM THE BLACK SEA represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across Ukraine continues to pose a MAJOR THREAT. PRIORITIZING AIR DEFENSE IN ODESA, ASSESSING DAMAGE, AND MAINTAINING READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE are the MOST URGENT PRIORITIES. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are essential.