Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 20:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:56 UTC - 20:25 UTC)

1. FIRST CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF NORTH KOREAN SPG IN LUHANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (19:56 UTC) reports the first confirmed destruction of a North Korean M1978 Koksan 170mm self-propelled gun (SPG) in Luhansk by the 412th NEMESIS regiment. The Koksan has a range of 43km with standard shells and 54-60km with rocket-assisted projectiles. It was first observed in Russian service in October 2024.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT on MULTIPLE LEVELS. It CONFIRMS the USE OF NORTH KOREAN WEAPONRY by Russian forces in Ukraine. The DESTRUCTION of a LONG-RANGE ARTILLERY SYSTEM is a TACTICAL VICTORY for Ukrainian forces, reducing Russian firepower. It also demonstrates the EFFECTIVENESS of Ukrainian targeting and reconnaissance capabilities. This is a MAJOR PROPAGANDA VICTORY for Ukraine, highlighting the INTERNATIONAL NATURE of Russian support.

2. FIRE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA PRIVATE SECTOR DUE TO DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (19:57 UTC) reports a fire in the private sector of Zaporizhzhia due to an enemy drone attack. Emergency services are on-site.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS damage from the ongoing drone attacks in Zaporizhzhia. While the extent of the damage is not yet clear, any fire in a residential area is a SERIOUS CONCERN.

3. REPEATED GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:59) and previously Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:54) report repeated launches of guided aerial bombs on Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Donetsk regions.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES the ONGOING THREAT of AIR-DELIVERED MUNITIONS in these regions.

4. DRONE OVER DNIPRO (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:11) and Оперативний ЗСУ (20:13) report a drone over the city.
   • Assessment: Confirms the risk in the area.

5. RUSSIAN DRONE SHOT DOWN OVER BRYANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (20:09), AV БогомаZ (20:12), and Два майора (20:13) report that 20/21 drones have been destroyed.
   • Assessment: Confirms the attacks.

6. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:14) reported 144 combat engagements.
   • Assessment: Confirms continued fighting across multiple fronts.

7. DRONE MOVEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:15, 20:16, 20:20, 20:24) and Оперативний ЗСУ (20:17, 20:18, 20:23) provided updates on the movements of multiple drones.
   • Assessment: DETAILED INFORMATION on the MOVEMENT AND DIRECTION of enemy drones is CRITICAL for AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS.

8. RUSSIA CLAIMS DEMAND FOR MORE TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:16), citing ISW, reports a claim that Russia's Nebenzya wants Ukraine to cede an additional 30% of Donbas.

   • Assessment: Requires verification, but would indicate continued attacks.

9. MACRON STATES NO FRENCH TROOPS, AGAIN (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • РБК-Україна (20:20) reports that France will not send troops.
   • Assessment: Confirms the position.

Updated Situation Summary

• FIRST CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF NORTH KOREAN SPG IN LUHANSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A MAJOR TACTICAL AND PROPAGANDA VICTORY for Ukraine, CONFIRMING the use of North Korean weaponry by Russia.
• FIRE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA DUE TO DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms DAMAGE from ongoing drone attacks.
• REPEATED GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): REINFORCES the ONGOING THREAT in multiple regions.
• EXTENSIVE DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Detailed reports on drone movements indicate WIDESPREAD AND COMPLEX DRONE ATTACKS.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN KYIV AND OTHER REGIONS, BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains valid.
• EXPLOSION IN SUMY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains valid.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains valid.
• RUSSIAN-US TALKS ONGOING (REPORTED): Remains valid.
• ALL OTHER PREVIOUS SUMMARIES REMAIN VALID, PRIORITIES ADJUSTED.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE, PRIORITIZE DRONE INTERCEPTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available air defense resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT the numerous drones reported across Ukraine.
   • Utilize the detailed information on drone movements provided by the Ukrainian Air Force to OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE PLACEMENT AND INTERCEPTION EFFORTS.
   • Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • Issue clear and frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY in areas under threat.

2. INVESTIGATE AND EXPLOIT THE DESTRUCTION OF THE NORTH KOREAN SPG (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather all available intelligence on the destroyed North Korean SPG (photographic evidence, debris analysis, location data).
   • Analyze the intelligence to CONFIRM THE WEAPON'S ORIGIN and ASSESS ITS CAPABILITIES.
   • Disseminate the information to INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS to INCREASE AWARENESS of North Korean support for Russia.
   • Utilize the information for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES to HIGHLIGHT UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES and the INTERNATIONAL NATURE of Russian aggression.

3. ASSESS DAMAGE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Assess the damage from the fire in the private sector of Zaporizhzhia caused by the drone attack.
   • Provide assistance to affected civilians.
   • Evaluate the impact on local infrastructure and services.

4. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains valid.

5. MONITOR RUSSIAN-US TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains valid.

6. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains valid.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): Remains valid.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The WIDESPREAD AND COMPLEX DRONE ATTACKS, coupled with the CONTINUED THREAT OF GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS and REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, pose a SIGNIFICANT AND IMMEDIATE THREAT to Ukraine. The CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF THE NORTH KOREAN SPG is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, highlighting the INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION of the conflict. MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS, RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND EFFECTIVE COUNTER-DISINFORMATION EFFORTS are CRITICAL to mitigate these threats and maintain Ukraine's defensive capabilities.