Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 19:55 UTC
Changes and New Information (19:26 UTC - 19:55 UTC)
AIR RAID ALERT IN KYIV (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (19:27 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (19:28 UTC), and РБК-Україна (19:29 UTC) report an air raid alert in Kyiv. КМВА specifically mentions the threat of ballistic weapons.
Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of a missile attack on Kyiv, likely from the EAST. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE ACTION.
MACRON CONFIRMS NO FRENCH TROOPS IN UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:27 UTC) and Alex Parker Returns (19:36 UTC) report that French President Macron has stated France will not send troops to Ukraine.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the previous report from ТАСС (19:16 UTC) and clarifies the situation, indicating NO IMMEDIATE CHANGE in French policy.
RUSSIAN DAILY REPORT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:27 UTC) provides a summary of the day's events, claiming Russian advances in several areas:
Krasnoarmeysk direction: Russian forces continue to build up their presence and advance northeast. A bridge in Pervomaisky was reportedly destroyed by Russian air forces. Russian forces reportedly repelled Ukrainian forces near Malinovka and expanded their zone of control near Vodyanoye Vtoroe.
Kharkiv Oblast, Lipetsk area: Russian drones reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian groups with three SUVs.
Volchansk area: Russian forces reportedly advanced 70 meters, pushing Ukrainian forces out of a stronghold.
Velikonovosyolkovskoe direction: Russian forces reportedly advanced 1 km towards Burlatskoe and repelled Ukrainian forces near Novoocheretovatoe.
Kursk Oblast: Russian forces reportedly advanced 200 meters in Pogrebki and pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions on the western outskirts of Kurilovka.
Zaporizhzhia: Industrial facilities supplying Ukrainian forces were reportedly hit.
Zinkov, Poltava Oblast: A logistics point supplying Ukrainian forces was reportedly hit.
Konstantinovka: Polish mercenaries were reportedly deployed.
Shostakovka, Kirovograd Oblast: The Ukrainka 330 kV substation was reportedly disabled.
Zamost, Kharkiv Oblast: A repair point for Western armored vehicles was reportedly hit.
Kyiv: The Antonov enterprise, where attack drones were produced, and the Praktika enterprise, where Western armored vehicles were repaired and modernized, were reportedly hit.
Glevakha, Kyiv Oblast: Warehouses with Western-supplied equipment and ammunition were reportedly destroyed.
Assessment: This is a COMPREHENSIVE RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA REPORT claiming NUMEROUS SUCCESSES across MULTIPLE FRONTS. While some claims MAY BE TRUE, INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL. The report should be treated with EXTREME CAUTION.
STERNENKO (19:28 UTC) and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:29 UTC) report a threat of ballistic missiles from the east in areas where an air raid alert has been declared. РБК-Україна (19:30 UTC) also confirms the threat.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the IMMINENT THREAT of a missile attack, specifically with BALLISTIC MISSILES, which are FASTER AND MORE DIFFICULT TO INTERCEPT.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ZAPORIZHZHIA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:29 UTC) claims Russian forces are clearing the last outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, near Serebryanoe.
Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
AIR RAID ALERT AND EXPLOSION IN SUMY (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (19:30 UTC) confirms the air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic weapons. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:30 UTC) and РБК-Україна (19:32 UTC) report that Sumy is under threat. РБК-Україна (19:32 UTC) reports an explosion in Sumy.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS an AIR ATTACK on Sumy, likely with BALLISTIC MISSILES.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN PETROVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (19:42 UTC) reports that Russian troops have advanced in Petrovka.
Assessment:REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION
NEW DRONE GROUPS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:44 UTC) reports new groups of attack drones entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast from Kursk Oblast, heading southwest, and in Zaporizhzhia from the temporarily occupied territories, heading northwest.
Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE ACTIVITY, with NEW THREATS emerging in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
ТАСС (19:45 UTC) reports that Matvienko stated it is still too early to talk about the results of the Russian-US talks in Riyadh, but it is a "good and positive signal."
Assessment: This is a CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC STATEMENT from a SENIOR RUSSIAN OFFICIAL, suggesting that TALKS ARE ONGOING but NO BREAKTHROUGH HAS BEEN ACHIEVED.
CLAIMED EXCLUSION OF ZELENSKY FROM RIYADH TALKS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (19:48) reports that American media are saying that bin Salman wanted to invite Zelensky to the talks, but was opposed by Russia and the US.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:54) reports multiple guided bomb launches.
Assessment:CONFIRMS ONGOING ATTACKS.
Updated Situation Summary
AIR RAID ALERT IN KYIV AND OTHER REGIONS, BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): An IMMINENT THREAT of a missile attack, likely with BALLISTIC MISSILES, exists for Kyiv and other regions.
EXPLOSION IN SUMY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): An AIR ATTACK on Sumy has been confirmed.
CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): New groups of attack drones are entering Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Numerous reports from Russian sources claim advances across multiple fronts. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS ESSENTIAL.
MACRON CONFIRMS NO FRENCH TROOPS IN UKRAINE (CONFIRMED): Clarifies that there is NO IMMEDIATE CHANGE in French policy.
RUSSIAN-US TALKS ONGOING (REPORTED): Cautious optimism from a Russian official suggests talks are ongoing but no breakthrough has been achieved.
KUPYANSK UNDER EXTREME THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
US-RUSSIA TALKS CONTINUE, UKRAINE EXCLUDED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
INCREASED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
ALLEGED UKRAINIAN SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM BALTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK AS RESPONSE (HIGH PRIORITY): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IN KHARKOV REQUEST SUPPLIES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCED RUSSIAN "SHAHED" DRONE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
UKRAINIAN POW CAPTURED NEAR DACHNE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS UNDERWAY IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
CONTINUED ATTACKS IN NIKOPOL REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
UK DRONE NETWORK IN NORTH ATLANTIC (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN STRIKE IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN POW INTERVIEW NEAR CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
YAMPOLOVKA LIBERATED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
FIGHTING ON NOVOPAVLIVSKE DIRECTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF NORTH KOREAN SPG IN LUHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON WAREHOUSES NEAR KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
EU TO SEND MILITARY AID (REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROYING NATO EQUIPMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN AIR FORCE DESTROYS BRIDGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
MULTIPLE DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
FAST-MOVING TARGET HEADING TOWARDS ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous summaries are still valid.
UKRAINIAN DRONE UNIT DESTROYS RUSSIAN TOR-M2 (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN PETROVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR NOVOLYUBOVKA AND MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE NEAR VYSHGOROD (REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
RUSSIA DEMANDS 30% TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
DRONE ATTACKS IN BRYANSK AND CRIMEA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
UKRAINIAN FORCES REPEL RUSSIAN ASSAULT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS IN KYIV AND OTHER THREATENED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Prioritize air defense operations in Kyiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and other regions under threat of ballistic missiles and drones.
Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming missiles and drones.
Issue clear and frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
Prepare for potential mass casualty events and ensure medical facilities are on HIGH ALERT.
Utilize all available intelligence assets (reconnaissance drones, satellite imagery, HUMINT) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the numerous claims of Russian advances across multiple fronts.
Prioritize verification of advances in strategically significant areas, such as Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Petrovka.
If advances are confirmed, prepare for immediate counter-offensive operations to REPEL THE ADVANCES and SECURE KEY LOCATIONS.
ASSESS DAMAGE FROM AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Assess the damage from the confirmed air attack on Sumy and any other strikes.
Evaluate the impact on infrastructure, military capabilities, and civilian populations.
Aggressively counter Russian propaganda claims of widespread successes.
Provide accurate information to the public and international community about the situation on the ground.
Expose Russian disinformation efforts.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The IMMINENT THREAT OF AIR ATTACKS, particularly with BALLISTIC MISSILES, is the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN. The NUMEROUS REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES require URGENT VERIFICATION. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE COORDINATION, AND AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-DISINFORMATION EFFORTS are paramount.
