Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 19:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:58 UTC - 19:25 UTC)

1. KUPYANSK SITUATION CRITICAL (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (18:58 UTC) reports the situation in Kupyansk is "critical," with Russian forces very close to the entire front line. The head of the Kupyansk City Military Administration, Andriy Besedin, describes the situation as "very difficult and critical," encompassing the front line, security, social, and critical infrastructure.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the EXTREME THREAT to KUPYANSK and REINFORCES PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS. The statement from a HIGH-RANKING LOCAL OFFICIAL adds SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT to the assessment. The situation is described as CRITICAL across MULTIPLE DOMAINS, indicating a COMPREHENSIVE CRISIS.

2. RUSSIA DEMANDS 30% TERRITORY (REPORTED, US SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (18:59 UTC), citing the "American Institute for the Study of War," reports Russia is demanding Ukraine cede approximately 30% of its territory for a peace deal.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS from НгП раZVедка (18:28 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:22 UTC). While the specific source ("American Institute for the Study of War") REQUIRES VERIFICATION, the consistent reporting of this demand across MULTIPLE SOURCES increases its CREDIBILITY. This remains a MAJOR OBSTACLE to any negotiated settlement.

3. DRONE ATTACKS IN BRYANSK AND CRIMEA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (19:03 UTC) and ASTRA (19:04 UTC) report three Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Crimea and Bryansk Oblast.

• AV БогомаZ (19:11, 19:21) reports 2 drones were shot. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY. The targeting of CRIMEA has STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

4. DRONE MOVEMENT UPDATES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:04 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:08 UTC) report:
     • Drones in the north and central parts of Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
     • Drones in the north and east of Chernihiv Oblast, heading southwest.
     • Drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, heading north/northwest.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS. The southwesterly trajectory in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts suggests potential targeting of areas FURTHER WEST.

5. DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST DRONE THREAT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:09 UTC) reports a drone threat for the Dnipropetrovsk area.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY.

6. RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:09 UTC) reports Russian air defense activity in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically mentioning Tokmak, Melitopol, and the Azov coast as areas under missile threat.
   • Assessment: This indicates HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS and POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN ATTACKS targeting these areas.

7. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPEL RUSSIAN ASSAULT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (19:09 UTC) reports Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on the lines of the Third Assault Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast. The report details the use of RPGs and drones to destroy Russian BMPs and infantry.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES and the EFFECTIVENESS OF DRONE WARFARE. The report highlights SPECIFIC UKRAINIAN UNITS involved (2nd Assault Battalion, drone pilots, artillery units).

8. AIR ATTACK ON SUMY (REPORTED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:09, 19:10) reports guided bombs were launched on the region.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS ONGOING ATTACKS.

9. EU PREPARING MILITARY AID PACKAGE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:00 UTC) and ТАСС (19:00 UTC) report the EU is preparing a 6 billion euro military aid package for Ukraine, potentially including air defense systems and over 1.5 million artillery shells. It may be announced before February 24th.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS from РБК-Україна (18:34 UTC). The confirmation from MULTIPLE SOURCES increases its CREDIBILITY. This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating CONTINUED AND SUBSTANTIAL EU SUPPORT for Ukraine. The potential inclusion of LARGE QUANTITIES OF ARTILLERY SHELLS and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS is PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT.

10. PUTIN STILL AIMS TO OCCUPY ALL OF UKRAINE (REPORTED, US AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:01 UTC) and STERNENKO (19:04 UTC) reports, citing US intelligence, that Putin is not interested in a genuine peace agreement and only simulates negotiations to achieve his military goals, aiming to occupy all of Ukraine.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES the assessment that RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC GOALS REMAIN UNCHANGED and EXTEND BEYOND CURRENTLY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. This has MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for any potential negotiations.

11. FRANCE WILL NOT SEND TROOPS (REPORTED):

    • ТАСС (19:16) states that France won't deploy troops to Ukraine.
      • Assessment: This CONFIRMS no change in French policy.

Updated Situation Summary

• KUPYANSK UNDER EXTREME THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid. NEW REPORT from a LOCAL OFFICIAL confirms the situation is CRITICAL across MULTIPLE DOMAINS.
• US-RUSSIA TALKS CONTINUE, UKRAINE EXCLUDED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• INCREASED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• ALLEGED UKRAINIAN SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM BALTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK AS RESPONSE (HIGH PRIORITY): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IN KHARKOV REQUEST SUPPLIES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCED RUSSIAN "SHAHED" DRONE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UKRAINIAN POW CAPTURED NEAR DACHNE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS UNDERWAY IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• CONTINUED ATTACKS IN NIKOPOL REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UK DRONE NETWORK IN NORTH ATLANTIC (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN POW INTERVIEW NEAR CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• YAMPOLOVKA LIBERATED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• FIGHTING ON NOVOPAVLIVSKE DIRECTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF NORTH KOREAN SPG IN LUHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE ON WAREHOUSES NEAR KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• EU TO SEND MILITARY AID (REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid. CONFIRMED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES.
• RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROYING NATO EQUIPMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN AIR FORCE DESTROYS BRIDGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• MULTIPLE DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• FAST-MOVING TARGET HEADING TOWARDS ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE UNIT DESTROYS RUSSIAN TOR-M2 (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN PETROVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR NOVOLYUBOVKA AND MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE NEAR VYSHGOROD (REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIA DEMANDS 30% TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REINFORCED by reports from Alex Parker Returns citing the "American Institute for the Study of War."
• DRONE ATTACKS IN BRYANSK AND CRIMEA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian-controlled territory.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES REPEL RUSSIAN ASSAULT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REINFORCES Ukrainian defensive capabilities.

Updated Recommendations

1. REINFORCE KUPYANSK DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid. IMMEDIATELY ASSESS the implications of the "critical" situation reported by the local official and ADJUST DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES ACCORDINGLY.

2. ADDRESS US-RUSSIA TALKS AND UKRAINIAN EXCLUSION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

3. VERIFY AND ASSESS ALLEGED SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

4. INVESTIGATE EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

5. VERIFY AND ASSESS POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations are still valid.

6. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All previous recommendations are still valid. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE even after alerts are lifted. SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS drone threats in Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. COUNTER potential Russian guided bomb attacks on Sumy.

7. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations are still valid.

8. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN ARRESTS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

9. VERIFY DRONE ATTACK IN SYRIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations are still valid.

10. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTS FROM KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

11. VERIFY UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCED RUSSIAN "SHAHED" DRONE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

12. ASSESS UKRAINIAN POW CAPTURE NEAR DACHNE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations are still valid.

13. MONITOR RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • All previous recommendations are still valid.

14. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

15. ASSESS UK DRONE NETWORK IN NORTH ATLANTIC (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

16. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

17. ASSESS RUSSIAN POW INTERVIEW NEAR CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations are still valid.

18. VERIFY REPORTS ON YAMPOLOVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

19. INVESTIGATE AND CONFIRM NORTH KOREAN SPG DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

20. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE NEAR KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

21. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY): All previous recommendations are still valid.

22. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF NATO EQUIPMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

23. VERIFY RUSSIAN AIR FORCE BRIDGE DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

24. ASSESS AND EXPLOIT DESTRUCTION OF TOR-M2 (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

25. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN PETROVKA, NOVOLYUBOVKA, MAKEEVKA, AND KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

26. ASSESS EU MILITARY AID PACKAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

27. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE NEAR VYSHGOROD (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

28. VERIFY RUSSIAN DEMAND FOR 30% TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Attempt to confirm the report through INDEPENDENT SOURCES.
    • Assess the implications for any potential negotiations.

29. EXPLOIT SUCCESSFUL REPULSE OF RUSSIAN ASSAULT IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Gather further intelligence on Russian tactics and weaknesses revealed during the engagement.
    • Disseminate lessons learned to other Ukrainian units.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CRITICAL SITUATION IN KUPYANSK is the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN, requiring IMMEDIATE ACTION. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, ONGOING AIR AND DRONE THREATS, and the REPORTED RUSSIAN DEMAND FOR 30% OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY highlight the INTENSITY OF THE CONFLICT and the CHALLENGES to achieving a peaceful resolution. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS remain ESSENTIAL.