Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 18:55 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:26 UTC - 18:55 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN DRONE UNIT DESTROYS RUSSIAN TOR-M2 (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Підрозділ Shadow (18:26 UTC) reports that a Ukrainian drone unit, "Shadow," identified a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system. Coordinates were passed to the 413th Separate Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Battalion "Raid" for a strike. A video shows the successful attack, claiming the radar was disabled.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the EFFECTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN DRONE RECONNAISSANCE AND STRIKE CAPABILITIES. The destruction of a HIGH-VALUE AIR DEFENSE ASSET like the Tor-M2 SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADES RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES in the targeted area. The claim of radar disablement REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

2. RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING FOR DRONE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Филолог в засаде (18:26 UTC) is raising funds for a Mavic 3T drone for the 1140th Artillery Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division, operating in the Kursk region.
   • Assessment: Indicates continued reliance on crowdfunding.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN PETROVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (18:26 UTC) reports Russian advances in Petrovka, in the Dzerzhinsk direction, citing video evidence. Claims Ukrainian forces are responding with drones to slow the advance. Reports continued fighting on the outskirts of Dzerzhinsk and near Krymske, with Ukrainian forces attempting to hold positions and counterattack. Claims that taking Petrovka will facilitate taking Shcherbynivka, ultimately cutting off a major supply line to a Ukrainian stronghold north of Keramik.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. RYBAR is a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE, so CAUTION IS NEEDED. The claims of STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS (cutting off supply lines) should be CLOSELY EXAMINED and CORROBORATED.

4. RUSSIA CLAIMS UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL DEMAND (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • НгП раZVедка (18:28 UTC) claims Russia is demanding Ukraine withdraw from approximately 30% of the territories it doesn't control, specifically parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE EARLIER REPORT from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:22 UTC), adding a SPECIFIC PERCENTAGE (30%) to the demand. This REMAINS A MAJOR OBSTACLE to any negotiated settlement.

5. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR NOVOLYUBOVKA AND MAKEEVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Z комитет + карта СВО (18:28 UTC) reports Russian advances near Novolyubovka and Makeevka.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

6. WHITE HOUSE COMMENTS ON US-RUSSIA TALKS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:28 UTC) reiterates the White House statement calling the US-Russia talks a "monumental step" towards peace in Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS.

7. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:29 UTC) reports the air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
   • Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE THREAT HAS PASSED, but VIGILANCE SHOULD REMAIN.

8. POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM BALTICS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (18:30 UTC) cites the Financial Times reporting a potential withdrawal of US troops from the Baltics. Claims Baltic politicians, who have been promoting anti-Russian sentiment, will now change their tune.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION from RELIABLE SOURCES.

9. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (18:30 UTC) reports fighting near Preobrazhenka, with Russian forces advancing from Zaporizhzhia and Nadezhdinka. Claims Russian forces advanced 2.5 km near Zelenovka and are approaching Ulakly from the southeast, engaging Ukrainian forces. Reports Russian forces have entered Konstantynopol from the southeast.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. This report details SPECIFIC RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND LOCATIONS, which should be CAREFULLY EXAMINED and CORROBORATED.

10. AIR DEFENSE THREAT LIFTED, DRONE THREAT REMAINS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:32 UTC) reports the threat of ballistic weapons has been lifted, but the threat of attack drones remains in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
    • Assessment: Indicates continued drone activity.

11. MAKEEVKA SHELLING (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Mash на Донбассе (18:33 UTC) reports five people, including children, were injured in shelling in Makiivka. Damage to buildings, shops, cars, and social institutions is reported.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE EARLIER REPORT from ТАСС (18:25 UTC). Indicates CONTINUED FIGHTING and RISK TO CIVILIANS in the area.

12. UKRAINIAN VICE PM COMMENTS ON US-UKRAINE AGREEMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Воин DV (18:34 UTC) cites Ukrainian Vice PM Olga Stefanishina stating a US-Ukraine agreement on minerals will be signed, but details are still being discussed.
    • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED NEGOTIATIONS on a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AGREEMENT.

13. EU MILITARY AID PACKAGE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (18:34 UTC) reports EU countries are preparing a 6 billion euro military aid package for Ukraine, potentially including over 1.5 million artillery shells and air defense systems. It may be announced before February 24th.
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating CONTINUED AND SUBSTANTIAL EU SUPPORT for Ukraine. The potential inclusion of LARGE QUANTITIES OF ARTILLERY SHELLS and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS is PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT.

14. UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY NORTH KOREAN SPG (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:35 UTC) reports Ukrainian forces have destroyed a North Korean "Koksan" M1978 self-propelled gun.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE EARLIER REPORT from РБК-Україна (18:15 UTC).

15. NETHERLANDS PARLIAMENT APPROVES PEACEKEEPING RESOLUTION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:38 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (18:45 UTC) report the Netherlands Parliament approved a resolution for a possible deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine in case of a ceasefire.
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT in a post-conflict scenario. It suggests PREPARATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE, although NO SUCH CEASEFIRE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OR IMMINENT.

16. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE NEAR VYSHGOROD (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника (18:53 UTC) claims that Russian forces hit an industrial warehouse in Vyshgorod.
    • Assessment: Indicates continued targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure.

17. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:46 UTC) reports an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:46 UTC) reports that there is a threat of enemy drone strikes.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:48 UTC) reports enemy tactical air activity, and that there is a threat of air-launched weapons.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:50 UTC) reports that there is a threat of enemy drones from the South.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES IMMEDIATE RESPONSE.

Updated Situation Summary

• KUPYANSK UNDER EXTREME THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• US-RUSSIA TALKS CONTINUE, UKRAINE EXCLUDED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid. NEW REPORT OF NETHERLANDS PARLIAMENT APPROVING PEACEKEEPING RESOLUTION in case of a ceasefire, indicating POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT in a post-conflict scenario.
• INCREASED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• ALLEGED UKRAINIAN SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM BALTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid. REINFORCED by reports from Alex Parker Returns citing the Financial Times.
• RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK AS RESPONSE (HIGH PRIORITY): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IN KHARKOV REQUEST SUPPLIES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCED RUSSIAN "SHAHED" DRONE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UKRAINIAN POW CAPTURED NEAR DACHNE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS UNDERWAY IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• CONTINUED ATTACKS IN NIKOPOL REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UK DRONE NETWORK IN NORTH ATLANTIC (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN POW INTERVIEW NEAR CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• YAMPOLOVKA LIBERATED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• FIGHTING ON NOVOPAVLIVSKE DIRECTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF NORTH KOREAN SPG IN LUHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid. REINFORCED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE ON WAREHOUSES NEAR KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• EU TO SEND MILITARY AID (REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid. NEW REPORT of a 6 BILLION EURO MILITARY AID PACKAGE from EU countries, potentially including OVER 1.5 MILLION ARTILLERY SHELLS and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
• RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROYING NATO EQUIPMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• RUSSIAN AIR FORCE DESTROYS BRIDGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• MULTIPLE DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid. ALERT LIFTED, but VIGILANCE SHOULD REMAIN.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): All previous summaries are still valid. THREAT LIFTED.
• FAST-MOVING TARGET HEADING TOWARDS ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous summaries are still valid.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE UNIT DESTROYS RUSSIAN TOR-M2 (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED successful attack on a HIGH-VALUE AIR DEFENSE ASSET.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN PETROVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR NOVOLYUBOVKA AND MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE NEAR VYSHGOROD (REPORTED): REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

Updated Recommendations

1. REINFORCE KUPYANSK DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

2. ADDRESS US-RUSSIA TALKS AND UKRAINIAN EXCLUSION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid. IMMEDIATELY ASSESS the implications of the Netherlands Parliament's resolution on potential peacekeeping deployment.

3. VERIFY AND ASSESS ALLEGED SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

4. INVESTIGATE EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

5. VERIFY AND ASSESS POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations are still valid.

6. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All previous recommendations are still valid. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE even after alerts are lifted.

7. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations are still valid.

8. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN ARRESTS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

9. VERIFY DRONE ATTACK IN SYRIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations are still valid.

10. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTS FROM KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

11. VERIFY UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCED RUSSIAN "SHAHED" DRONE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

12. ASSESS UKRAINIAN POW CAPTURE NEAR DACHNE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations are still valid.

13. MONITOR RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • All previous recommendations are still valid.

14. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

15. ASSESS UK DRONE NETWORK IN NORTH ATLANTIC (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

16. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

17. ASSESS RUSSIAN POW INTERVIEW NEAR CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations are still valid.

18. VERIFY REPORTS ON YAMPOLOVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

19. INVESTIGATE AND CONFIRM NORTH KOREAN SPG DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

20. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE NEAR KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

21. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY): All previous recommendations are still valid.

22. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF NATO EQUIPMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

23. VERIFY RUSSIAN AIR FORCE BRIDGE DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations are still valid.

24. ASSESS AND EXPLOIT DESTRUCTION OF TOR-M2 (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Confirm the extent of damage to the Tor-M2 system, specifically whether the radar was disabled.
    • Assess the impact on Russian air defense capabilities in the area.
    • Identify and target other Russian air defense assets to further degrade their capabilities.
    • Adjust air operations to exploit the reduced air defense threat.

25. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN PETROVKA, NOVOLYUBOVKA, MAKEEVKA, AND KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the reported Russian advances.
    • Assess the extent of Russian control and the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
    • PREPARE COUNTERMEASURES if necessary.

26. ASSESS EU MILITARY AID PACKAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Gather further details on the proposed 6 billion euro EU military aid package.
    • Confirm the types and quantities of artillery shells and air defense systems included.
    • Assess the timeline for delivery and PLAN FOR INTEGRATION into Ukrainian forces.

27. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE NEAR VYSHGOROD (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence assets to verify the reported strike in Hlevakha, Kyiv Oblast.
    • Determine if it was an industrial warehouse was targeted.
    • Assess the extent of damage.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF THE RUSSIAN TOR-M2 is a SIGNIFICANT VICTORY for Ukrainian forces, but the CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and ONGOING AIR AND DRONE THREATS require CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND ACTION. The POTENTIAL EU MILITARY AID PACKAGE and the NETHERLANDS PARLIAMENT'S RESOLUTION are IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS that require CAREFUL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION remain ESSENTIAL.