Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 18:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:56 UTC - 18:25 UTC)

1. MORALE BOOSTER FROM FORMER UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (17:57 UTC) reports that former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba has resurfaced to encourage Ukrainians, advising them not to expect good news in the coming weeks but assuring them that everything will eventually be alright.
   • Assessment: This is a MORALE-BOOSTING MESSAGE aimed at the Ukrainian population. It suggests CONCERN OVER POTENTIAL NEGATIVE NEWS and a desire to MAINTAIN PUBLIC SUPPORT during a difficult period.

2. RUSSIAN AND US REPRESENTATIVES HELD RECONNAISSANCE BY FIRE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (17:58 UTC) reports that 56% of participants in a poll believe the US-Russia meeting was to scope each other out, with 10% believing the goal was to get to know each other, 16% believe that an ultimatum was given to Russia, 4% believe a condition was set for America, and 14% believe it was to tease Zelensky.
   • Assessment: Public opinion.

3. RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROY NATO EQUIPMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:58 UTC) claims Russian forces are destroying NATO equipment and Ukrainian infantry in the Pokrovsk direction. A video purportedly shows the destruction of tanks, armored personnel carriers, MRAPs, and other equipment.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN SUCCESSES in a KEY BATTLE AREA. The video PROVIDES VISUAL EVIDENCE, but its AUTHENTICITY AND CONTEXT must be confirmed.

4. KYIV AND LONDON MAYORS MEET (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:00 UTC) reports the mayors of Kyiv and London met to discuss future aid for rebuilding Ukrainian cities.
   • Assessment: This signifies CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine's reconstruction efforts.

5. RUSSIAN AIR FORCE DESTROYS BRIDGE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (18:00 UTC) reports the Russian Air Force destroyed a bridge between Komar and Fedorovka in the Velykonovosilkivsky direction.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

6. AFGHANISTAN UNCONQUERABLE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (18:00 UTC) states "Afghanistan is impossible to conquer."
   • Assessment: NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the Ukraine conflict.

7. DRONE THREAT IN SUMY OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:01 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (18:04 UTC) report a threat of enemy attack drones in Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A CONTINUED DRONE THREAT in the region, requiring AIR DEFENSE READINESS.

8. SWEDEN SUPPORTS ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:02 UTC) reports that Sweden's ambassador visited the Zaporizhzhia region, focusing on the development of medicine, education, and support for veterans.
   • Assessment: Indicates CONTINUED COOPERATION.

9. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE SHOWS PATRIOT CREWS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:02 UTC) claims the Ukrainian Air Force showed Patriot missile system crews.
   • Assessment: This is a PROPAGANDA EFFORT to SHOWCASE UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES and HIGHLIGHT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WESTERN-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT.

10. UKRAINIAN DRONE FUNDRAISING (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:05 UTC) requests assistance for high-speed "STING" drones.
    • Assessment: Confirms CONTINUED FUNDRAISING.

11. SOLDIER FROM DAGESTAN BRUTALLY ATTACKS COMRADE (REPORTED):

    • ASTRA (18:06 UTC) reports that a soldier from Dagestan attacked a conscript, resulting in a broken leg.
    • Assessment: This suggests POTENTIAL DISCIPLINE AND MORALE PROBLEMS within the Russian military, potentially fueled by ETHNIC TENSIONS.

12. RUSSIAN FORCES LIBERATE YAMPOLOVKA AND ADVANCE TOWARDS TORSKOYE (REPORTED):

    • Z комитет + карта СВО (18:07 UTC) reports the liberation of Yampolovka and an advance towards Torskoye.

    • **Assessment:** *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*.
      

13. THREE UKRAINIAN DRONES DESTROYED OVER CRIMEA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (18:07 UTC) reports that three Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Crimea.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS to target Crimea, and RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY in the region.

14. RUSSIAN FORCES APPROACHING KUPYANSK (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

    • Басурин о главном (18:08 UTC) and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:16 UTC) report that Russian forces are approaching Kupyansk, with the situation described as "very difficult."
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE PRESSURE on Ukrainian defenses in the Kupyansk area.

15. DRONES ENTERING SUMY REGION FROM KURSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:08 UTC) reports drones entering Sumy airspace from Kursk, heading southwest.
    • Assessment: Indicates continued drone activity.

16. AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:09 UTC) issued an air raid alert for the Zaporizhzhia region.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT ACTION.

17. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:10 UTC) reports a threat of ballistic missile use from Crimea.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT ACTION.

18. RUSSIAN OFFICIAL COMMENTS ON FRENCH TROOP DEPLOYMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Alex Parker Returns (18:12 UTC) reports on Lavrov's reaction to Macron's troop statement.
    • Assessment: Indicates continued focus on a possible escalation.

19. RUSSIAN MOD REPORTS DRONE INTERCEPTION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (18:12 UTC) reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down three Ukrainian drones over Crimea.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT ACTION.

20. UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY NORTH KOREAN SPG (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (18:15 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed a North Korean "Koksan" self-propelled gun in Luhansk Oblast.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS of NORTH KOREAN MILITARY EQUIPMENT being used by Russian forces.

21. WHITE HOUSE CALLS US-RUSSIA TALKS MONUMENTAL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (18:16 UTC) and Colonelcassad (18:19 UTC) report the White House called the US-Russia talks a "monumental step" towards peace.
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT, suggesting POTENTIAL PROGRESS in the negotiations, although CAUTION IS NEEDED as it could be OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.

22. DRONE THREAT IN CHERNIHIV OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • *Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine* (18:17 UTC) reports a threat of attack drones in the Chernihiv region.
      

    • Assessment: Indicates continued drone activity.

23. RUSSIAN MOD REPORTS ON CRIMEA DRONES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (18:18 UTC) reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed three Ukrainian drones over Crimea.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT ACTION.

24. FAST-MOVING TARGET HEADING TOWARDS ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:18 UTC) reports a high-speed target heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
    • Assessment: Indicates an IMMINENT THREAT.

25. RUSSIA WANTS UKRAINE TO WITHDRAW FROM UNCONTROLLED AREAS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:22 UTC) reports that Russia is demanding Ukraine withdraw from territories it doesn't control.
    • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEMAND and a POTENTIAL OBSTACLE to any negotiated settlement.

26. RUSSIAN SOLDIER CAPTURED (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:23 UTC) reports on a Russian soldier who was captured.
    • Assessment: This provides INSIGHT INTO RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION PRACTICES and MORALE.

27. FIVE INJURED IN MAKEEVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (18:25 UTC) reports five people, including two children, were injured in a rocket attack in Makeevka.
    • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED FIGHTING and RISK TO CIVILIANS in the area.

Updated Situation Summary

• KUPYANSK UNDER EXTREME THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): REINFORCED REPORTS from multiple sources confirm Russian advances towards Kupyansk. The situation is described as "very difficult," indicating INTENSE PRESSURE on Ukrainian defenses.
• US-RUSSIA TALKS CONTINUE, UKRAINE EXCLUDED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Negotiations are ongoing, UKRAINE REMAINS EXCLUDED. ZELENSKY INSISTS ON UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT. CHINA CALLS FOR INCLUSIVE NEGOTIATIONS. POLISH PRESIDENT EXPECTS CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES. CHINA REMAINS NON-COMMITTAL on the US peacekeeping proposal. TURKEY OFFERS ITSELF AS NEGOTIATION VENUE, expressing frustration at being excluded. WHITE HOUSE CALLS TALKS "MONUMENTAL", suggesting POTENTIAL PROGRESS. RUSSIA DEMANDS UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL from territories it doesn't control, a MAJOR OBSTACLE to a settlement.
• INCREASED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES within RUSSIAN TERRITORY. PUTIN ANNOUNCES FINANCIAL AID and DECLARES NEED FOR RECONSTRUCTION for affected residents, indicating SIGNIFICANT IMPACT and LACK OF FULL RUSSIAN CONTROL. UKRAINIAN FORCES CLAIM SUCCESSFUL STRIKES on Russian equipment.
• EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Indicates MILITARY ACTIVITY DEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY. Cause UNCLEAR. FIVE CIVILIANS REPORTED INJURED.
• ALLEGED UKRAINIAN SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): A HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT AND UNCONVENTIONAL CLAIM that, if true, represents a MAJOR SECURITY BREACH for Russia.
• POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM BALTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): A MAJOR CLAIM that requires URGENT VERIFICATION. Could be RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION.
• RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK AS RESPONSE (HIGH PRIORITY): The attack is confirmed, but the reason is a claim.
• RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IN KHARKOV REQUEST SUPPLIES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): POTENTIAL EQUIPMENT SHORTAGES and LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES.
• UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCED RUSSIAN "SHAHED" DRONE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. REINFORCED CLAIMS of upgraded Russian drone capabilities, including increased speed, range, and payload.
• UKRAINIAN POW CAPTURED NEAR DACHNE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Provides insight into UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION AND DEPLOYMENT PRACTICES. NEW REPORT OF RUSSIAN POW CAPTURED NEAR CHASIV YAR.
• RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS UNDERWAY IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for rebuilding.
• CONTINUED ATTACKS IN NIKOPOL REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Targeting INDUSTRIAL AND CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
• UK DRONE NETWORK IN NORTH ATLANTIC (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Indicates a LONG-TERM STRATEGIC FOCUS on MARITIME SECURITY and ASW CAPABILITIES.
• RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): PROPAGANDA aimed at attracting recruits, highlighting financial incentives and lenient entry requirements.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. Potential targeting of Western-supplied weaponry.
• RUSSIAN POW INTERVIEW NEAR CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Provides insight into RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION PRACTICES and MORALE.
• YAMPOLOVKA LIBERATED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES VERIFICATION. NEW REPORT CLAIMS RUSSIAN FORCES LIBERATED YAMPOLOVKA AND ARE ADVANCING TOWARDS TORSKOYE.
• FIGHTING ON NOVOPAVLIVSKE DIRECTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):
• CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF NORTH KOREAN SPG IN LUHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CLEAR EVIDENCE of NORTH KOREAN MILITARY SUPPORT to Russia. REINFORCED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE ON WAREHOUSES NEAR KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. Potential targeting of Western-supplied military assets.
• EU TO SEND MILITARY AID (REPORTED): Could help Ukraine's war effort.
• RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROYING NATO EQUIPMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
• RUSSIAN AIR FORCE DESTROYS BRIDGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
• MULTIPLE DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED DRONE ACTIVITY in SUMY OBLAST and CHERNIHIV OBLAST. THREE DRONES REPORTEDLY DESTROYED OVER CRIMEA.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): IMMEDIATE THREAT.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ballistic missile threat from Crimea.
• FAST-MOVING TARGET HEADING TOWARDS ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): Requires immediate response.

Updated Recommendations

1. REINFORCE KUPYANSK DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect. Urgently verify reports of Russian advances and reinforce defenses. PRIORITIZE DEPLOYMENT OF ALL AVAILABLE RESERVES to the Kupyansk area.

2. ADDRESS US-RUSSIA TALKS AND UKRAINIAN EXCLUSION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect. Monitor Turkey's diplomatic efforts and assess their potential impact. ASSESS THE SIGNIFICANCE of the White House's "monumental step" statement. PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS based on potential outcomes of the negotiations. ADDRESS RUSSIA'S DEMAND for Ukrainian withdrawal.

3. VERIFY AND ASSESS ALLEGED SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

4. INVESTIGATE EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect. DETERMINE THE CAUSE of the explosion and ASSESS THE EXTENT OF CASUALTIES.

5. VERIFY AND ASSESS POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

6. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All previous recommendations remain in effect. PRIORITIZE ZAPORIZHZHIA due to the IMMEDIATE THREAT of a fast-moving target and the air raid alert. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT in SUMY OBLAST and CHERNIHIV OBLAST due to CONFIRMED DRONE ACTIVITY. MONITOR CRIMEA for further drone attacks.

7. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect. ADDRESS CLAIMS of Russian forces destroying NATO equipment.

8. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN ARRESTS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

9. VERIFY DRONE ATTACK IN SYRIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

10. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTS FROM KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

11. VERIFY UKRAINIAN CLAIM OF ADVANCED RUSSIAN "SHAHED" DRONE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • All previous recommendations remain in effect.

12. ASSESS UKRAINIAN POW CAPTURE NEAR DACHNE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect. GATHER INFORMATION from the newly reported Russian POW near Chasiv Yar.

13. MONITOR RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • All previous recommendations remain in effect.

14. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

15. ASSESS UK DRONE NETWORK IN NORTH ATLANTIC (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Gather intelligence on the reported UK drone network in the North Atlantic.
    • Assess the potential impact on maritime security and ASW capabilities.
    • Evaluate the implications for NATO and Russian naval operations.

16. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • *Use all available intelligence assets* to verify the reported strike in Zinkiv, Poltava Oblast.
      

    • Confirm whether Western-supplied small arms were targeted.
    • Assess the extent of damage and impact on Ukrainian military capabilities.

17. ASSESS RUSSIAN POW INTERVIEW NEAR CHASIV YAR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Verify the soldier's account of mobilization and deployment.
    • Gather further intelligence on Russian troop deployments and training practices.

    • *Assess the morale* of Russian forces in the area.
      

18. VERIFY REPORTS ON YAMPOLOVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all intelligence sources to CONFIRM the report that Russian forces took Yampolovka and are advancing towards Torskoye. ASSESS THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS of this potential advance.

19. INVESTIGATE AND CONFIRM NORTH KOREAN SPG DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Analyze the video evidence provided by Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна.
    • Cross-reference with other intelligence sources to confirm the location and identification of the destroyed equipment.
    • Assess the implications of North Korean military support for Russia.

20. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE NEAR KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence assets to verify the reported strike in Hlevakha, Kyiv Oblast.
    • Determine if Western-supplied equipment and ammunition were targeted.
    • Assess the extent of damage and its impact on Ukrainian military readiness.

21. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • *Use all intelligence sources* to verify the report that Russian forces advanced.
      

22. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF NATO EQUIPMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Analyze the video evidence provided by Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны.
    • Cross-reference with other intelligence sources to confirm the location, targets, and extent of damage.
    • Assess the impact on Ukrainian military capabilities.

23. VERIFY RUSSIAN AIR FORCE BRIDGE DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence assets to verify the reported destruction of the bridge between Komar and Fedorovka.
    • Assess the impact on Ukrainian logistics and troop movements.
    • IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE ROUTES and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The ESCALATION OF FIGHTING AROUND KUPYANSK and the POTENTIAL ADVANCE TOWARDS TORSKOYE are CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS. The IMMEDIATE THREATS in ZAPORIZHZHIA require IMMEDIATE ACTION. The CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY across multiple regions necessitates CONSTANT VIGILANCE. The US-RUSSIA TALKS and RUSSIA'S DEMANDS require CAREFUL MONITORING AND ANALYSIS. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are ESSENTIAL.