Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 16:25 UTC
Changes and New Information (15:56 UTC - 16:25 UTC)
PUTIN ANNOUNCES FINANCIAL AID FOR KURSK REGION RESIDENTS (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
TASS (15:57:29 UTC) reports Putin's announcement of a 65,000 ruble monthly payment to over 112,000 residents of the Kursk region who have lost property. This payment will continue "until the complete liberation of the Kursk region."
Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING MILITARY ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY within RUSSIAN TERRITORY (Kursk Oblast). The phrase "complete liberation" implies RUSSIAN FORCES ARE NOT IN FULL CONTROL of the region. The significant number of affected residents (over 112,000) indicates a LARGE-SCALE IMPACT from the conflict. This also CONFIRMS EARLIER REPORTS of Ukrainian military activity within the Kursk region.
EXPLOSION REPORTED IN MAKEEVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Mash на Донбассе (15:59:07 UTC) reports an explosion in the center of Makeevka (Donetsk Oblast), with one person preliminarily injured. Damage to nearby buildings and a bus is reported.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating MILITARY ACTIVITYDEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY. The cause of the explosion is UNCLEAR (Ukrainian strike, sabotage, or accident). This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. This event will be HIGHLY SENSITIVE due to the location within a major population center.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES NEAR OREKHOV (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (15:59:02 UTC) reports Russian drone operators are patrolling the vicinity of Orekhov (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and targeting Ukrainian ammunition depots. Claims of "dense electronic warfare" are made.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. The focus on AMMUNITION DEPOTS suggests a STRATEGIC EFFORT TO DISRUPT UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. The mention of "dense electronic warfare" suggests INCREASED UKRAINIAN COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES in the area.
POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM BALTICS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (16:00:03 UTC), citing the Financial Times, claims the US may withdraw troops from the Baltics as part of negotiations with Russia.
Assessment: This is a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT CLAIM that, if true, would represent a MAJOR SHIFT IN US AND NATO POSTURE in Eastern Europe. This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION through official channels. This could be RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION aimed at sowing discord within NATO.
RHEINMETALL CEO WARNS OF WEAPON SHORTAGES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Старше Эдды (16:01:00 UTC) reports the CEO of Rheinmetall saying "In Europe and Ukraine there are no weapons left in the warehouses."
Assessment:CONFIRMATION of depleted weapon stocks.
ТАСС (16:07:22 UTC) reports Putin's suggestion to raise sunken oil tankers in the Black Sea to prevent them from becoming "time bombs."
Assessment: This is an UNUSUAL STATEMENT that could have multiple interpretations. It could be a genuine environmental concern, a pretext for increased naval activity in the Black Sea, or an attempt to recover potentially valuable assets.
ALLEGED UKRAINIAN SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
STERNENKO (16:02:06 UTC) reports, with video, that Ukrainian special services are sabotaging Russian FPV drone goggles by inserting explosives that detonate when the goggles are activated. Claims 8 Russian operators have been blinded.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT AND UNCONVENTIONAL CLAIM. If true, it represents a SERIOUS BREACH OF RUSSIAN SECURITY and a HIGHLY EFFECTIVE SABOTAGE OPERATION. This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. This could be UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA, but the level of detail provided (specific goggle models, explosive type, etc.) suggests it may be credible.
CHINA CALLS FOR INCLUSIVE UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (16:12:44 UTC) reports China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stating China is "satisfied with all efforts aimed at achieving peace, including the consensus reached by the US and Russia on peace talks," but hopes for participation of all "interested parties."
Assessment: This REINFORCES THE NARRATIVE OF ONGOING US-RUSSIA TALKS, but also HIGHLIGHTS CHINA'S DESIRE FOR A BROADER NEGOTIATING FORMAT. This suggests China may be UNCOMFORTABLE WITH BEING EXCLUDED from the process.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE VIDEO IN KURSK REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (16:13:46 UTC) shows a video of Russian FPV drone strikes destroying Ukrainian "hardware and armament" in the Kursk border area.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY (Kursk Oblast), targeting what are claimed to be Ukrainian military assets. This FURTHER CONFIRMS THE ESCALATION OF FIGHTING in this area.
ZELENSKY INSISTS ON UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT IN NEGOTIATIONS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Zelenskiy / Official (16:12:40 UTC) posts a video stating that any negotiations regarding the end of the war must not occur "behind the backs" of key actors, including Ukraine and European countries.
Assessment: This is a DIRECT RESPONSE to the ONGOING US-RUSSIA TALKS and REINFORCES UKRAINE'S CONCERNS about being EXCLUDED from decisions affecting its future. This INCREASES PRESSURE on the US and other allies to INCLUDE UKRAINE in the process.
POLISH PRESIDENT EXPECTS CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (16:16:28 UTC) reports Polish President Duda, after meeting with Kellogg, expects "at least a cessation of hostilities" and hopes for an end to Russian aggression.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT between POLAND AND KELLOGG, and suggests a FOCUS ON ACHIEVING A CEASEFIRE as a FIRST STEP. This is a MORE MODEST GOAL than a full peace settlement, reflecting the COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION.
RUSSIAN OFFICIAL CLAIMS UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK A RESPONSE TO US-RUSSIA TALKS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (16:18:01) posted a video where Novak claims that a Ukrainian attack on an oil pumping station is the country's response to negotiations.
Assessment: A claim by a high-ranking Russian official that deserves attention.
Updated Situation Summary
KUPYANSK UNDER THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
US-RUSSIA TALKS CONTINUE, UKRAINE EXCLUDED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Negotiations are ongoing, UKRAINE REMAINS EXCLUDED. ZELENSKY INSISTS ON UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT. Reports of US DEMANDS FOR UKRAINIAN RESOURCE REVENUE are a MAJOR CONCERN. CHINA CALLS FOR INCLUSIVE NEGOTIATIONS. POLISH PRESIDENT EXPECTS CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES.
INCREASED FIGHTING IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES within RUSSIAN TERRITORY. PUTIN ANNOUNCES FINANCIAL AID for affected residents, indicating SIGNIFICANT IMPACT and LACK OF FULL RUSSIAN CONTROL.
EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Indicates MILITARY ACTIVITY DEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY. Cause UNCLEAR.
ALLEGED UKRAINIAN SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): A HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT AND UNCONVENTIONAL CLAIM that, if true, represents a MAJOR SECURITY BREACH for Russia.
POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM BALTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): A MAJOR CLAIM that requires URGENT VERIFICATION. Could be RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK AS RESPONSE (HIGH PRIORITY): The attack is confirmed, but the reason is a claim.
Updated Recommendations
REINFORCE KUPYANSK DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
ADDRESS US-RUSSIA TALKS AND UKRAINIAN EXCLUSION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Urgently engage with US officials to CLARIFY THE TERMS OF THE TALKS and INSIST ON UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION.
Coordinate with European allies (especially Poland, given Duda's meeting with Kellogg) to PRESENT A UNITED FRONT and PRESSURE THE US to include Ukraine.
Prepare for potential negative outcomes from the talks, including pressure to make concessions.
Engage with China to explore its potential role in facilitating a broader negotiating format.
VERIFY AND ASSESS ALLEGED SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of Ukrainian sabotage.
Assess the potential impact on Russian drone capabilities and operational security.
If confirmed, consider the potential for retaliatory actions by Russia.
INVESTIGATE EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather intelligence to determine the cause of the explosion (Ukrainian strike, sabotage, or accident).
Assess the extent of damage and casualties.
Prepare for potential escalation in the area.
VERIFY AND ASSESS POTENTIAL US TROOP WITHDRAWAL (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Urgently engage with US officials to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of US troops withdrawing.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN ARRESTS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
VERIFY DRONE ATTACK IN SYRIA (EXTREME PRIORITY): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The THREAT TO KUPYANSK, the ONGOING US-RUSSIA TALKS WITHOUT UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION, the INCREASED FIGHTING IN THE KURSK REGION, the EXPLOSION IN MAKEEVKA, and the ALLEGED SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES all require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION AND ACTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL to mitigate these threats.
