Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 16:15 UTC
Changes and New Information (15:30 UTC - 15:55 UTC)
UKRAINIAN MORTAR UNITS ACTIVE IN KURSK OPERATION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (15:30:50 UTC) posts a video claiming Ukrainian mortar units are successfully targeting the enemy in the Kursk operation, providing fire support day and night.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY within RUSSIAN TERRITORY (Kursk Oblast). The focus on MORTAR FIRE suggests INDIRECT FIRE CAPABILITIES are being used to HARASS RUSSIAN FORCES and DISRUPT OPERATIONS. This activity INCREASES THE RISK OF ESCALATION and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION. It also confirms reports, from 2025-02-18 15:07:00, of military activity near the border.
DRONE USED AS MEDICAL COURIER IN RUSSIA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Глеб Никитин (15:33:53 UTC) reports, with images, the first test of a drone as a medical courier, delivering materials for research between medical facilities.
Assessment: While not directly related to combat operations, this DEMONSTRATES GROWING RUSSIAN INTEREST IN DRONE TECHNOLOGY for CIVILIAN APPLICATIONS. This TECHNOLOGY COULD BE ADAPTED FOR MILITARY LOGISTICS, particularly in areas with DISRUPTED INFRASTRUCTURE.
WESTERN MEDIA REPORTS ON US DEMANDS FOR UKRAINIAN RESOURCE REVENUE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Рыбарь (15:34:49 UTC) claims Western media reports that the US intends to take 50% of Ukraine's revenue from resource extraction and new licenses.
Assessment: This, if confirmed, SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERS THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION of the conflict. It suggests the US IS SEEKING TO RECOUP ITS INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE through DIRECT CONTROL OVER UKRAINIAN RESOURCES. This could lead to INTERNAL TENSIONS WITHIN UKRAINE and FURTHER COMPLICATE NEGOTIATIONS. HIGH PRIORITY to VERIFY THE ACCURACY of these reports.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:34:54 UTC) reports, citing the head of the Military Administration, that Russian forces have approached Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast and the city is under regular shelling.
Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. The APPROACH OF RUSSIAN FORCES to Kupyansk, a KEY LOGISTICAL HUB, represents a MAJOR THREAT. The REGULAR SHELLING indicates INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in this area. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE REINFORCEMENT of Ukrainian defenses and PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of civilians.
RUSSIAN BANK CARDS TO WORK WORLDWIDE AFTER WAR ENDS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:36:42) relays a statement from Lavrov indicating an agreement with the US on this issue.
Assessment:CONFIRMATION of a limited agreement regarding the conflict.
ITALY OPPOSES TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (15:38:10 UTC) reports, citing AFP, that Italian PM Meloni considers sending troops to Ukraine the "least effective" way to ensure peace.
Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS DIVISIONS WITHIN EUROPE regarding DIRECT MILITARY INTERVENTION in Ukraine. Italy's opposition REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF A UNIFIED EUROPEAN RESPONSE involving troop deployments.
ARREST OF ALLEGED UKRAINIAN AGENTS IN LUGANSK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Mash на Донбассе (15:39:41 UTC) reports, with video, the arrest of a paramedic in Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, accused of providing information on Russian troop locations to Ukrainian intelligence.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS in occupied territories. The ARREST OF MEDICAL PERSONNEL is NOTABLE and could DISRUPT HEALTHCARE SERVICES in the area. This requires VERIFICATION, but could be used by Russia to JUSTIFY CRACKDOWNS on suspected Ukrainian sympathizers.
AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (15:42:12 UTC) announces an air raid alert.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AIR THREAT in the region, most likely from RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT or MISSILES.
RUSSIAN CLAIM INCREASED WESTERN SATELLITE RECON (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (15:41:47 UTC) claims an increase of satellite surveillance in Crimea.
Assessment: Could be a genuine observation, or a Russian attempt to create an excuse for an escalation.
RUSSIAN HEAVY FLAMETHROWER STRIKE IN KHARKIV REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (15:43:47 UTC) reports, with video, a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system strike on Ukrainian shelters in Kharkiv Oblast.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN USE OF THERMOBARIC WEAPONS in the Kharkiv region. These weapons are HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE and INDISCRIMINATE, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to both military and civilian targets. This is a SERIOUS ESCALATION in the intensity of the conflict.
RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROY WESTERN EQUIPMENT REPAIR POINT IN KHARKIV OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (15:54:46 UTC) reports a location in Kharkiv Oblast, where Western armored vehicles were repaired, was destroyed.
Assessment: This demonstrates a RUSSIAN FOCUS ON TARGETING LOGISTICAL SUPPORT for Ukrainian forces, specifically WESTERN-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT. If confirmed, this REDUCES UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO REPAIR AND MAINTAIN its armored vehicles, IMPACTING ITS COMBAT CAPABILITIES.
UKRAINIAN BRIGADE FUNDRAISING FOR NIGHT DRONES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (15:55:25 UTC) reports that a Ukrainian brigade is collecting funds to buy 90 night drones.
Assessment: Underscores UKRAINIAN RELIANCE ON DRONES for NIGHT OPERATIONS.
RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY ADVANCING NEAR KUPYANSK (MULTIPLE SOURCES):
The claim of Russian forces approaching Kupyansk is further reinforced by reports of Ukrainian drone strikes in the area and ongoing fighting. This highlights the CRITICAL NATURE OF THE SITUATION around Kupyansk.
Updated Situation Summary
RUSSIAN ADVANCES CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):CONFIRMED Russian advances in DONETSK (Yasenovoye, bridge destruction) and reports of advances near KUPYANSK (Kharkiv Oblast) present a SERIOUS AND DETERIORATING SITUATION.
KUPYANSK UNDER THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces are APPROACHING KUPYANSK, a KEY LOGISTICAL HUB, and the city is under REGULAR SHELLING. This is the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT in this update.
US-RUSSIA TALKS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Negotiations are ongoing, with FORMATION OF A NEGOTIATION TEAM for Ukraine, but UKRAINE REMAINS EXCLUDED. Reports of US DEMANDS FOR UKRAINIAN RESOURCE REVENUE are a MAJOR CONCERN.
INCREASED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES in KHARKIV OBLAST (thermobaric weapons) and reports of GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS on the ZAPORIZHZHIA/DONETSK BORDER. AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
ITALY OPPOSES TROOP DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Highlights EUROPEAN DIVISIONS on direct military intervention.
RUSSIAN COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents in occupied territories.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF INCREASED SATELLITE RECON (HIGH PRIORITY): A potential increase in Western satellite reconnaissance over Crimea.
UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Ukrainian drones are seen being used on several fronts.
Deploy all available reinforcements to the Kupyansk area IMMEDIATELY.
Strengthen defensive positions around the city.
Prepare for potential urban warfare.
Develop and implement evacuation plans for civilians.
Increase air defense in the area to counter Russian shelling and potential air attacks.
VERIFY AND ASSESS US DEMANDS FOR UKRAINIAN RESOURCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all available diplomatic and intelligence channels to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reports of US demands for Ukrainian resource revenue.
Assess the potential implications for Ukraine's economy and sovereignty.
Prepare a diplomatic response to address these demands if confirmed.
MONITOR US-RUSSIA TALKS AND KELLOGG'S VISIT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):KHARKIV OBLAST remains a HIGH-RISK ZONE due to THERMOBARIC WEAPON USE and TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY. ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST is also under INCREASED THREAT from GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.
INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN ARRESTS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather information on the arrests of alleged Ukrainian agents.
Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian intelligence networks and civilian populations.
Monitor for potential human rights abuses.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KUPYANSK require URGENT AND DECISIVE ACTION. The POTENTIAL US DEMANDS for Ukrainian resources and the CONTINUED EXCLUSION OF UKRAINE from key negotiations create a HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DIPLOMATIC ENVIRONMENT. RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF DEFENSES, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL to mitigate these threats.
