Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 07:42 UTC
Changes and New Information (07:13 UTC - 07:42 UTC)
NEW AIR RAID ALERTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:13 UTC, 07:28 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Donetsk and Sumy regions.
Оперативний ЗСУ (07:20 UTC, 07:31 UTC) reports a threat of the use of air-launched weapons in Dnipropetrovsk region.
Assessment: This indicates IMMINENT AIR ATTACKS in the specified regions. HIGH ALERT is required for air defense systems. This CONTINUES the pattern of Russian air strikes targeting various regions.
ТАСС (07:32 UTC, 07:38 UTC, 07:39 UTC, 07:40 UTC) reports the start of negotiations between Russian and US delegations in Riyadh. Kirill Dmitriev (head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, RFPI) stated that progress is possible within 2-3 months and that discussions include economic cooperation. He also claims that the Biden administration "did not seek to understand Russia's concerns," but now the US is "ready to listen."
Оперативний ЗСУ (07:22, 07:38 UTC) confirms the start of the meeting.
Colonelcassad (07:28 UTC) shows video of Russian delegation arriving, highlighting the talks are starting.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the start of the talks. Dmitriev's statements should be viewed with CAUTION, as they likely represent a Russian perspective. The focus on economic issues is NOTEWORTHY. The claim of a potential shift in US willingness to listen needs INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
SAUDI ARABIA TALKS "NOT NEGOTIATIONS"(MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, OFFICIAL US STATEMENT):
Оперативний ЗСУ (07:22) reports that US State Department spokesperson, Tammy Bruce, stated that the meetings should not be considered "negotiations."
CONFIRMATION OF PREVIOUS REPORTS (LOW PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (07:16 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (07:16 UTC) repeat information about shooting down 103 drones.
РБК-Україна (07:22 UTC) confirms the downing of 103 out of 176 drones and the loss of 67 "drone imitators." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:22 UTC) provides the same information.
Assessment: These are CONFIRMATIONS of previously reported information. The consistency across multiple sources INCREASES CONFIDENCE in the accuracy of the reports.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CONTINUED FIGHTING (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Kotsnews (07:41 UTC) claims fighting is ongoing in Konstantinopol, with Russian forces advancing south of Ulakly and controlling the road to Zaporizhzhia. Claims General Naev has been appointed to command Ukrainian forces in the Ugledar direction.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (07:32) reports that the enemy's defence line has been breached.
Assessment: These claims require INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. They likely represent a Russian perspective on the ongoing battles. The appointment of General Naev needs confirmation.
OTHER UPDATES:
STERNENKO (07:26) reports two explosions on the tanker Seajewel in Italy, carrying Russian oil. No oil spill reported.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (07:32 UTC) shows video of claimed Ukrainian strikes on Russian infantry.
ТАСС (07:35 UTC) reports that a Russian general-major was arrested for bribery.
Ribar (07:33) reports that Russia-US talks in Saudi Arabia are just a start.
Дневник Десантника (07:27 UTC) claims that talks about the end of the conflict are premature.
Updated Situation Summary
IMMINENT AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of guided aerial bomb launches in Donetsk, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions require IMMEDIATE air defense readiness.
US-RUSSIA TALKS UNDERWAY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The talks in Riyadh have started, with a focus on economic issues. The claims of progress and a shift in US attitude require careful monitoring.
MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources confirm the large-scale drone attack, with 103 drones shot down and 67 "drone imitators" lost.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KURAKHOVE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): The situation remains CRITICAL, with continued reports of Russian pressure. Kotsnews claims require URGENT VERIFICATION.
CONTINUED FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian sources report ongoing battles, particularly near Konstantinopol.
TANKER EXPLOSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): The incident involving the tanker Seajewel requires investigation.
CHERNOBYL FIRE (HIGH PRIORITY): The continuous fire at Chernobyl after the drone strike.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Prioritize air defense systems in Donetsk, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions due to IMMINENT THREAT of guided aerial bomb attacks.
Continuously monitor for further launches and be prepared for rapid response.
Urgently verify claims made by Kotsnews regarding Russian advances and control of the road to Zaporizhzhia.
Continue reinforcement and reconnaissance efforts.
INVESTIGATE TANKER INCIDENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Gather information about the explosions on the Seajewel tanker.
Determine the cause and potential implications.
ADDRESS CHERNOBYL (HIGH PRIORITY):
Monitor the radiation levels and address the fire.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The IMMINENT THREAT OF AIR ATTACKS and the CRITICAL SITUATION NEAR KURAKHOVE require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The US-RUSSIA TALKS introduce a new element that needs CLOSE MONITORING. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are essential.
