Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 07:13 UTC

Changes and New Information (06:43 UTC - 07:13 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:10 UTC) reports that 103 of 176 enemy UAVs (including Shahed drones and "drone imitators") were shot down overnight (from 19:00 UTC on Feb 17). 67 "drone imitators" were "lost" without causing damage. Drones were launched from multiple locations in Russia and occupied Crimea. Affected regions include Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.
   • РБК-Україна (07:12 UTC) confirmed the report and details the affected areas.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK by Russia targeting multiple regions across Ukraine. The use of "drone imitators" suggests a SOPHISTICATED TACTIC to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. While a significant number of drones were shot down, the attack still caused damage in Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Cherkasy. The WIDE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD of the attack highlights the SCALE of Russian operations.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KONSTANTINOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (06:56 UTC) reports a CRITICAL SITUATION near the Kurakhove salient. Ukrainian counterattacks in Ulakly have reportedly failed, and the village is "almost captured" by Russian forces. The territory between Ulakly and Dachne is "lost." Ukrainian forces hold the southern part of Konstantinopol, but Russian infantry is present in other parts of the village. Claims "they are just too many and are coming from all sides."
   • Assessment: This CORROBORATES previous reports of Russian advances in this area and SIGNIFICANTLY WORSENS the assessment. The reported Ukrainian failures and losses suggest a BREAKDOWN IN DEFENSES near Kurakhove. The situation requires IMMEDIATE REINFORCEMENT and COUNTER-MEASURES. The "too many" comment points to SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN FORCE CONCENTRATION.

3. RUSSIAN DRONE/ARTILLERY STRIKES (CONTINUING, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (06:54 UTC) provides a detailed report of incidents in the Kharkiv region over the past 24 hours.
     • Kharkiv: Drone debris damaged a dormitory roof.
     • Zolochiv: A guided aerial bomb (KAB) destroyed a social services building and damaged other buildings.
     • Horokhovatka: Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) fire destroyed two outbuildings.
     • Velykoburlutska: A "Geran" drone damaged a warehouse.
     • Multiple Locations: FPV drone strikes caused casualties and damage in Kutkivka, Pristin, Ivashky, and Vidrodzhenivske.
   • Сили оборони Півдня України (07:10 UTC) reports over 320 enemy shelling incidents in the southern front and over 550 strikes by different FPV-drones and the dropping of almost 400 shrapnel munitions.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:00 UTC) reports a high-speed target in the Sumy region, heading south.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD Russian attacks, primarily using drones and artillery, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and causing casualties. The report from Kharkiv region is PARTICULARLY DETAILED, highlighting the INTENSITY of the attacks. The report of a high-speed target in Sumy indicates an IMMINENT THREAT.

4. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON CHERNOBYL (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • РБК-Україна (06:57 UTC) reports the fire at the Chernobyl New Safe Confinement, after a Russian drone strike, is entering its 5th day.

5. POLISH MERCENARIES REPORTED IN KONSTANTINOVSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

*   *ТАСС* (06:58 UTC) reports a group of Polish mercenaries has been deployed to the Konstantinovsk direction in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR). Claims they are well-prepared and equipped.

*   **Assessment:** This requires *CAREFUL VERIFICATION*.  While foreign fighters have been involved in the conflict, this specific claim needs confirmation from independent sources.  It could be *DISINFORMATION* to justify Russian actions or to create tension between Poland and Ukraine.

6. RUSSIAN ESPIONAGE ACTIVITY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*  *ASTRA* (06:57 UTC) reports that the FSB has detained a police officer in the "LNR", accusing him of providing information about the location of Russian military units and the personal data of police officers to Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russia launched a widespread drone attack across Ukraine, targeting multiple regions. While many drones were shot down, damage and casualties occurred.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KURAKHOVE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The situation near Kurakhove has deteriorated significantly, with reported Ukrainian losses and Russian advances. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE/ARTILLERY STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian attacks continue across multiple regions, targeting civilian infrastructure and causing casualties.
• ONGOING THREAT OF AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The warning of a high-speed target in the Sumy region indicates an imminent air threat.
• REPORTED POLISH MERCENARIES (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Claims of Polish mercenaries in the Konstantinovsk direction require urgent verification.
• CHERNOBYL FIRE (HIGH PRIORITY): The continuous fire at Chernobyl after the drone strike.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS KURAKHOVE SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY REINFORCE Ukrainian positions near Kurakhove, particularly around Konstantinopol, Ulakly, and Andriivka.
   • Deploy all available reserves to the area.
   • Conduct immediate reconnaissance to determine the FULL EXTENT of Russian gains and troop concentrations.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensives to regain lost territory.
   • Prioritize artillery and air support to disrupt Russian advances and target troop concentrations.

2. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Prioritize air defense systems across all threatened regions, especially SUMY.
   • Continuously monitor for drone and missile launches.
   • Ensure rapid response protocols are in place.

3. VERIFY POLISH MERCENARY CLAIM (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to verify the claim of Polish mercenaries in the Konstantinovsk direction.
   • Assess the potential impact on the conflict if confirmed.

4. ADDRESS CHERNOBYL (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Monitor the radiation levels and address the fire.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KURAKHOVE are the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL CONCERN, requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE AND ARTILLERY ATTACKS pose a MAJOR THREAT across a WIDE AREA. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are essential.