Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 03:42 UTC
Changes and New Information (03:12 UTC - 03:42 UTC)
NEW DRONE THREAT FOR KYIV OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:13 UTC) and РБК-Україна (03:15 UTC) report a threat of attack UAVs for Kyiv Oblast.
Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. After a period of reduced drone threat nationwide, a NEW THREAT has emerged specifically targeting KYIV OBLAST. This indicates a POSSIBLE RESUMPTION OF RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS, potentially targeting the capital region. This REVERSES the previous assessment of a nationwide reduction in drone threat.
RUSSIAN TANK UNIT ACTIVITY IN KHERSON OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (03:18 UTC) reports a tank company of the 18th Combined Arms Army ("Dnepr" group) in Kherson Oblast destroyed over 20 UAV control points and 5 ammunition depots on the right bank of the Dnipro River during the winter. Includes video.
Assessment: This highlights CONTINUED RUSSIAN OPERATIONS in Kherson Oblast, focusing on COUNTER-DRONE AND LOGISTICS TARGETS. The claimed destruction of UAV control points and ammunition depots, if true, DEGRADES UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES in the area. The video evidence SUPPORTS the claim, but requires further verification.
CLAIMED SHAHEED STRIKE ON APARTMENT BUILDING IN KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (03:19 UTC) reports a Shahed drone hit a multi-story building in Kirovohrad Oblast. Includes image.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR CONCERN. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION of Russian drone attacks, TARGETING CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. This INCREASES THE RISK OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and VIOLATES RULES OF ENGAGEMENT. The image evidence SUPPORTS the claim but requires further verification to determine the extent of damage and casualties.
Claims at least 50 Russian attack drones targeted Kyiv, with damage to civilian objects due to Ukrainian air defense. Reports explosions in Cherkasy and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
Kursk Oblast: Claims Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) secured positions in Sverdlikovo, advanced towards Sudzha, and are fighting in Pogrebki. Claims Ukrainian forces are counterattacking.
Kupyansk Direction: Claims Russian forces are advancing west of the Oskol River near Zapadnoye, Dvurechnaya, and Figolevka.
Konstantinopol Direction: Claims Russian forces are advancing towards Konstantinopol, acknowledging Ukrainian recognition of Russian advances near Ulakly. Claims to have eliminated a large "pocket" of Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Velikonovoselkovsk Direction: Claims resumed offensive actions, with fighting reported near Novoselka and Novoocheretovatoye.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Claims Ukrainian forces struck a "Post of Tavria" building in Vasilyevka with cluster munitions.
Belgorod Oblast: Reports Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on houses and a farm.
Donetsk People's Republic (DNR): Reports Ukrainian artillery strikes wounding civilians and a woman injured by an unexploded cluster submunition.
Assessment: This is a COMPREHENSIVE RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on ongoing operations. It CONFIRMS the widespread drone attacks, though the claim of 50 drones targeting Kyiv is UNVERIFIED. The reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES on multiple fronts, particularly in the Kursk, Kupyansk, Konstantinopol, and Velikonovoselkovsk directions, are SIGNIFICANT and ALIGN with previous ISW reports. The claimed elimination of a Ukrainian "pocket" near Konstantinopol is a MAJOR CLAIM requiring verification. The report of a Ukrainian cluster munition attack on Vasilyevka is POTENTIALLY PROPAGANDA, but requires investigation.
Reports a drone attack on the "Yuttek" oil depot in Prokhorovka, Belgorod Oblast, on the night of February 14th. Claims no damage or casualties. Notes this is the 17th oil facility attacked in Russia in the first two months of 2025. Lists other attacked facilities. Includes image.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT REPORT. If confirmed, it demonstrates CONTINUED UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY, targeting Russian energy infrastructure. The claim of 17 attacks in two months indicates a SUSTAINED CAMPAIGN. The lack of reported damage at the "Yuttek" depot may indicate INEFFECTIVE ATTACKS or RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES. The image of the map shows PROKHOROVKA, confirming the location.
Updated Situation Summary
NEW DRONE THREAT TO KYIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A new threat of attack UAVs has emerged for Kyiv Oblast, reversing the previous assessment of a nationwide reduction in drone threat.
CLAIMED SHAHEED STRIKE ON APARTMENT BUILDING (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): A reported Shahed drone strike on a multi-story building in Kirovohrad Oblast, potentially causing civilian casualties. URGENT VERIFICATION AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NEEDED.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): "Два майора" report confirms and expands on previous reports of Russian advances in the Kursk, Kupyansk, Konstantinopol, and Velikonovoselkovsk directions. THREATENS Ukrainian defenses.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL FACILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):ASTRA reports continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, highlighting a sustained campaign.
RUSSIAN TANK UNIT ACTIVITY IN KHERSON OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Confirmed Russian operations targeting Ukrainian drones and supplies.
AIR DEFENSE THREAT REDUCED, BUT AIR-DELIVERED MUNITIONS THREAT REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): While the immediate drone threat subsided elsewhere, the threat of Russian guided aerial bombs remains high in Kharkiv Oblast.
RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian tactical aircraft remain active in the northeast, posing a threat of air-delivered weapons.
The situation of the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN HELICOPTER STRIKE NEAR BORDER remains a high priority.
POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF RUSSIAN ANTI-TANK CAPABILITIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of a remote-controlled KORNET-EM anti-tank system suggest a potential improvement in Russian anti-tank capabilities.
Updated Recommendations
IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION IN KYIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available air defense assets to Kyiv Oblast to counter the new drone threat.
Issue public warnings and safety instructions to residents.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO CLAIMED SHAHEED STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Dispatch emergency services to the reported location in Kirovohrad Oblast.
Assess damage and casualties.
Provide medical assistance and support to affected civilians.
Investigate the incident to confirm the use of a Shahed drone and determine responsibility.
CONTINUE TO VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the extent of Russian advances reported by "Два майора" and ISW.
Analyze the ISW maps and the "Два майора" report to determine specific areas of concern and potential vulnerabilities.
Deploy reinforcements to threatened areas to stabilize the front lines and prevent further Russian breakthroughs.
Prepare for counterattacks to regain lost territory.
Gather intelligence from all available sources to CONFIRM the reported attacks on Russian oil facilities.
Assess the damage caused by the attacks.
Analyze the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian air defenses.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR-DELIVERED MUNITIONS IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):All previous recommendations are still in effect.
MONITOR RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):All previous recommendations are still in effect.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON KORNET-EM SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):All previous recommendations are still in effect.
ALL OTHER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted to reflect the evolving situation.
The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The NEW DRONE THREAT TO KYIV OBLAST and the CLAIMED SHAHEED STRIKE ON AN APARTMENT BUILDING are MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS requiring IMMEDIATE ACTION. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES on multiple fronts and the UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN OIL FACILITIES highlight the INTENSITY AND SCOPE of the conflict. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRONG DEFENSIVE MEASURES are CRITICAL.
