Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 03:12 UTC

Changes and New Information (02:30 UTC - 03:12 UTC)

1. AIR DEFENSE THREAT LIFTED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:01 UTC) and РБК-Україна (03:02 UTC) report the all-clear signal for the threat of enemy attack UAVs across all regions.
   • Assessment: This confirms the REDUCTION IN IMMEDIATE DRONE THREAT across Ukraine. While the threat of OTHER AIR ATTACKS (missiles, aircraft) may still exist, the specific danger posed by the recent wave of UAVs has SUBSIDED. This allows for a BROAD REDUCTION IN ALERT STATUS related to drone activity, but DOES NOT eliminate the overall air threat.

2. RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY & GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS IN KHARKIV OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02:46 UTC) and РБК-Україна (02:48 UTC) reported activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of using air-delivered weapons in front-line areas.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02:54 UTC) and РБК-Україна (02:55 UTC) confirmed launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Kharkiv Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. While the drone threat has diminished, the threat from Russian AIR-DELIVERED MUNITIONS in Kharkiv Oblast has INCREASED. Guided aerial bombs are HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE and pose a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to both military and civilian targets. This indicates a SHIFT IN RUSSIAN TACTICS, potentially focusing on air attacks after the drone wave. The NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION is highlighted as a HIGH-RISK ZONE.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR TORETSK, POKROVSK, KURAKHOVE, AND VELYKA NOVOSILKA (REPORTED, ISW VIA RBC-UKRAINE):

   • Multiple maps indicate Russian forces made advances in multiple directions.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR CONCERN. The reported advances, if confirmed, demonstrate CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE on multiple fronts. The maps provided are valuable for GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS and will be used to UPDATE BATTLEFIELD ASSESSMENTS. These advances THREATEN Ukrainian defensive positions and COULD LEAD TO FURTHER LOSSES OF TERRITORY. This is a TOP PRIORITY for analysis and response.

4. RUSSIAN KORNET-EM ANTI-TANK MISSILE SYSTEM WITH REMOTE CONTROL (REPORTED, COLONELCASSAD):

   • Reports, with photo, of a KORNET-EM anti-tank system with a remote control system, claiming it has passed all tests. The system will ensure safety for the operator.
   • Assessment: This indicates a POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT of Russian anti-tank capabilities. The remote control feature INCREASES OPERATOR SAFETY and COULD IMPROVE THE SYSTEM'S EFFECTIVENESS in urban warfare or other high-risk environments. This REQUIRES MONITORING for deployment and potential impact on the battlefield.

Updated Situation Summary

• AIR DEFENSE THREAT REDUCED, BUT AIR-DELIVERED MUNITIONS THREAT INCREASES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The immediate threat of drone attacks has subsided nationwide, but the threat of Russian guided aerial bombs has INCREASED significantly in Kharkiv Oblast.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): ISW maps indicate Russian advances near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, THREATENING Ukrainian defenses.
• RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian tactical aircraft are active in the northeast, posing a threat of air-delivered weapons in front-line areas.
• The situation of the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN HELICOPTER STRIKE NEAR BORDER remains a high priority.
• POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF RUSSIAN ANTI-TANK CAPABILITIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of a remote-controlled KORNET-EM anti-tank system suggest a potential improvement in Russian anti-tank capabilities.

Updated Recommendations

1. PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE IN KHARKIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy air defense assets to Kharkiv Oblast to counter the threat of guided aerial bombs.
   • Increase surveillance (radar and visual) to provide early warning of approaching aircraft.
   • Issue alerts to civilian populations in threatened areas to minimize casualties.

2. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM the extent of Russian advances reported by ISW.
   • Analyze the ISW maps to determine specific areas of concern and potential vulnerabilities.
   • Deploy reinforcements to threatened areas to stabilize the front lines and prevent further Russian breakthroughs.
   • Prepare for counterattacks to regain lost territory and push Russian forces back.

3. MONITOR RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain continuous surveillance of Russian air activity, particularly in the northeastern direction.
   • Track the movement and deployment of Russian tactical aircraft.
   • Be prepared to respond to further attacks using air-delivered munitions.

4. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON KORNET-EM SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Monitor for signs of deployment of the remote-controlled KORNET-EM system.
   • Assess the potential impact of this system on Ukrainian armored vehicles and defensive positions.
   • Develop countermeasures to mitigate the threat posed by this system.

5. ALL OTHER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted to reflect the evolving situation.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The SHIFT IN RUSSIAN TACTICS towards air-delivered munitions in Kharkiv Oblast, coupled with REPORTED ADVANCES on multiple fronts, presents a SIGNIFICANT AND IMMEDIATE THREAT. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRONG DEFENSIVE MEASURES are CRITICAL to mitigate these threats and prevent further losses. The OVERALL STRATEGIC PICTURE has DETERIORATED in this update, requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION.