Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 18, 2025, 02:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (02:13 UTC - 02:30 UTC)

1. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN KYIV (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
   • КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) (02:29 UTC) and РБК-Україна (02:30 UTC) report the all-clear signal for the air raid alert in Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This indicates that the IMMEDIATE THREAT of drone or missile attacks in Kyiv has SUBSIDED. This DOES NOT MEAN the threat is completely gone, but it allows for a TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN ALERT STATUS in the capital. It suggests either the drones were intercepted, diverted, or their mission was completed.

Updated Situation Summary

• AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN KYIV (CONFIRMED): The immediate threat in Kyiv has subsided, allowing for a temporary reduction in alert status.

• The situation of the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN HELICOPTER STRIKE NEAR BORDER remains a high priority.

• The situation of the CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE SUCCESS remains a medium priority, requires verification.

• The situation of the ALLEGED LEAKED US-UKRAINE AGREEMENT remains extremely prioritized, it requires verification.

• The situation of the CONFIRMED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN SUMY OBLAST remains extreme priority, it requires verification.

• DRONE THREAT REMAINS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Although the alert in Kyiv is lifted, the OVERALL THREAT OF DRONE ATTACKS across Ukraine REMAINS HIGH. Continuous monitoring and air defense readiness are essential. The confirmed damage in Kyiv and Kirovohrad Oblast, and the ongoing drone movements, demonstrate the CONTINUING DANGER.

• ALL OTHER KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The situation in all previously mentioned areas remains a top priority.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY THAT AIRSPACE IS CLEAR (HIGH PRIORITY):
   • Utilize radar and other surveillance systems to verify that no further threats exist.
   • Maintain heightened readiness in case of subsequent attacks.
2. ADDRESS IMMINENT CEASEFIRE PUSH (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Recommendations remain.
3. VERIFY REPORT OF POTENTIAL TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Recommendations remain.
4. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF NEW DRONE CAPABILITY AND ADVANCEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Recommendations remain.
5. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RESPOND TO DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Recommendations remain.
6. ADDRESS EXPLOSIONS IN KHERSON (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Recommendations remain.
7. ALL OTHER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). Recommendations remain.

The lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but it DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER the overall strategic picture. The PRIMARY CONCERN remains the ALLEGED LEAKED US-UKRAINE AGREEMENT and its potential implications. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN HELICOPTER ACTIVITY and the CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE SUCCESS require ongoing monitoring and verification. The BROAD THREAT OF DRONE ATTACKS across Ukraine remains HIGH. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted to reflect the evolving situation. The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID.