Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 17, 2025, 09:39 UTC

Changes and New Information (09:09 UTC - 09:39 UTC)

1. AVDEEVKA ANNIVERSARY & POKROVSK FIGHTING (PROPAGANDA, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (09:09 UTC) commemorates the one-year anniversary of the Russian "liberation" of Avdeevka, claiming it led to the current fighting near Pokrovsk.
   • Assessment: This is PROPAGANDA aimed at portraying Russian military success and justifying the ongoing offensive. It REINFORCES THE NARRATIVE of a continuous Russian advance. MODERATE MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE as it reflects the Russian strategic objective of capturing Pokrovsk.

2. RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (09:11 UTC) reports a Russian Ministry of Defense briefing claiming significant Ukrainian losses (over 585 personnel and two tanks, including a Leopard, in the "Center" group of forces area; 180 in the "South" area; 160 and two Leopard tanks in the "East" area; 110 in the "North" and "Dnepr" areas). Claims destruction of five Hammer guided bombs and 177 drones. Claims strikes on Ukrainian military airfield and port infrastructure.
   • Assessment: This is STANDARD RUSSIAN MoD REPORTING, likely INFLATED and REQUIRING INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The claimed destruction of Leopard tanks and Hammer bombs is SIGNIFICANT IF TRUE, but HIGHLY SUSPECT. The claimed strikes on infrastructure are CONSISTENT WITH RUSSIAN STRATEGY. HIGH PRIORITY to cross-reference with other sources and assess the validity of these claims.

3. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION IN NEGOTIATIONS (REPORTED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:11 UTC), quoting Bloomberg, claims Trump stated that Ukraine "will also be admitted to negotiations with Russia." Claims Trump had a "prolonged and fruitful" phone call with Putin, asserting that Putin "does not plan to expand his influence" beyond the currently occupied territories.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. This CONTRADICTS PREVIOUS REPORTS suggesting Ukraine would be excluded from initial negotiations. Trump's claimed conversation with Putin and the assertion of limited Russian ambitions are HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT IF TRUE, but ALSO POTENTIALLY DISINFORMATION. EXTREME PRIORITY to confirm these claims through independent sources.

4. FIGOLEVKA LIBERATION CONFIRMED (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Военкор Котенок (09:12 UTC) and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:12 UTC) report that the Russian MoD has officially announced the "liberation" of Figolevka in the Kharkiv region.
   • Assessment: This confirms earlier Russian claims.

5. CLAIMED FIGHTING IN KRASNOLYMAN DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (09:14 UTC): Reports fighting east of Yampolivka in the Krasnolyman direction, claiming a destroyed Ukrainian attempt to rotate troops.
   • Assessment: Requires confirmation.

6. CLAIMED US PROPOSAL FOR PEACEKEEPERS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): * TASS (09:28 UTC), citing The Economist, reports that the US proposed including troops from Brazil and China in a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine after the conflict is resolved. * Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IF TRUE, indicating a potential shift in US strategy towards a negotiated settlement involving non-Western powers. HIGH PRIORITY to confirm this claim through independent sources and assess its implications.

7. UKRAINE REJECTS CEASEFIRE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (09:28 UTC) reports that Ukraine "does not agree to a ceasefire" and insists on returning to the borders of February 23, 2022.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES UKRAINE'S OFFICIAL POSITION and SETS A HIGH BAR for any potential negotiations. It INDICATES A CONTINUED COMMITMENT to regaining all lost territory. HIGH MILITARY AND POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE.

8. FIGHTING NEAR DNEPROENERGIYA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (09:30 UTC) reports fighting near a Ukrainian stronghold along the line Razdolnoe - Dneproenergiya.
   • Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED FIGHTING in the area, likely part of the broader Russian offensive towards Pokrovsk. HIGH PRIORITY to monitor for further developments.

9. ATTEMPTED SABOTAGE IN NIZHNY NOVGOROD REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:31 UTC) reports that Russian security forces detained two minors in the Nizhny Novgorod region who allegedly attempted to set fire to relay cabinets on the Gorky railway, claiming they were instructed by a Ukrainian "curator."
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of alleged Ukrainian sabotage attempts inside Russia. REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but CONSISTENT WITH KNOWN UKRAINIAN TACTICS. MODERATE MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE as it indicates potential Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian logistics.

10. FIRE AT RUSSIAN EW PLANT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (09:37 UTC) reports, citing Ukrainian intelligence (GUR), that a fire at the "Protek" plant in Voronezh on the night of January 27-28 destroyed two Russian R-330Zh "Zhitel" electronic warfare systems.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but SIGNIFICANT IF TRUE. The R-330Zh "Zhitel" is a KEY RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE ASSET. Its destruction would WEAKEN RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES to jam Ukrainian communications and drones. HIGH PRIORITY to confirm this report through independent sources.

11. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN FAILURE IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (09:23 UTC) reports, sarcastically, that a Russian "psychological attack" by a column of "Komsomol members" from the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region "failed."
    • Assessment: This is LIKELY UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA aimed at mocking Russian forces and boosting Ukrainian morale. The reference to "Komsomol members" is SARCASTIC and UNLIKELY TO BE LITERALLY TRUE. LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE, but HIGH PRIORITY for identifying disinformation.

12. KALUGA OBLAST OIL REFINERY ATTACK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ASTRA (09:17 UTC) reports that the "Pervyy Zavod" oil refinery in the Kaluga region was attacked by at least 12 UAVs during the night between February 14-15. The facility suffered damage to a pipeline, oil refining equipment, and a fire station.
• Assessment: This CONFIRMS a significant attack on Russian energy infrastructure, deep inside Russian territory. The use of 12 UAVs suggests a coordinated and sophisticated operation. HIGH PRIORITY to assess the extent of the damage and the impact on Russian fuel production.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of heavy Ukrainian casualties and destruction of equipment, including Leopard tanks and Hammer bombs. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION IN NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest Trump stated Ukraine would be included in negotiations, contradicting earlier claims. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• CLAIMED US PROPOSAL FOR PEACEKEEPERS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Report of US proposal to include Brazilian and Chinese troops in a peacekeeping force. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• UKRAINE REJECTS CEASEFIRE, DEMANDS RETURN TO PRE-INVASION BORDERS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reinforces Ukraine's official position and sets a high bar for negotiations.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Reports of fighting near Pokrovsk, Yampolivka, and Dneproenergiya, indicating ongoing Russian offensive efforts.
• FIGOLEVKA CONFIRMED CAPTURED BY RUSSIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A significant development.
• CLAIMED FIRE AT RUSSIAN EW PLANT DESTROYS KEY ASSETS (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Potential loss of R-330Zh "Zhitel" systems would significantly weaken Russian EW capabilities. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• ATTEMPTED SABOTAGE INSIDE RUSSIA (MODERATE PRIORITY, REPORTED): Consistent with known Ukrainian tactics.
• KALUGA OBLAST OIL REFINERY ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Confirms a significant and sophisticated attack on critical energy infrastructure.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian MoD's claims of Ukrainian losses and equipment destruction.
   • Prioritize verification of claims regarding Leopard tanks and Hammer bombs.

2. VERIFY CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION IN NEGOTIATIONS AND TRUMP-PUTIN CONVERSATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Trump statement and the claimed conversation with Putin.
   • Assess the implications for the future of the conflict and US policy if these claims are confirmed.

3. VERIFY REPORT OF US PEACEKEEPER PROPOSAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported US proposal to include Brazilian and Chinese troops in a peacekeeping force.
   • Assess the implications for the future of the conflict and international involvement if this claim is confirmed.

4. VERIFY REPORT OF FIRE AT RUSSIAN EW PLANT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, HUMINT, signal intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported fire and destruction of R-330Zh "Zhitel" systems.
   • Assess the impact on Russian EW capabilities if the report is confirmed.

5. ASSESS DAMAGE TO KALUGA OBLAST OIL REFINERY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use satellite imagery and other intelligence sources to assess the extent of damage to the "Pervyy Zavod" refinery.
   • Estimate the impact on Russian fuel production capacity.
   • Monitor for any further attacks on critical infrastructure.

6. MONITOR FIGHTING IN POKROVSK, YAMPOLIVKA, AND DNEPROENERGIYA AREAS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain continuous surveillance of these areas.
   • Assess the intensity of fighting and the potential for further Russian advances.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN US POLICY regarding negotiations and peacekeepers, IF CONFIRMED, represent MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. The CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN EW SYSTEMS, IF VERIFIED, would be a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Russian capabilities. The CONTINUED FIGHTING and ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE require CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE. PROACTIVE DIPLOMACY AND EFFECTIVE INFORMATION WARFARE remain essential.