Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 15, 2025, 23:38 UTC

Changes and New Information (23:09 UTC - 23:38 UTC)

1. PUTIN-TRUMP SETTLEMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, POLITICAL):

   • TASS (23:13:01 UTC) reports Alexander Dynkin, president of IMEMO RAN, stating that only Putin and Trump can have the decisive word on a settlement in Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the political landscape, likely aimed at influencing the upcoming US elections. It reinforces the narrative that a Trump presidency would be more favorable to Russia's interests. It has NO IMMEDIATE TACTICAL IMPACT, but contributes to the POLITICAL PRESSURE on Ukraine.

2. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (23:16:42 UTC) provides updated drone movement information:

     • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones moving southwest.
     • Sumy Oblast: Drones moving southwest.
     • Poltava Oblast: Drones moving south and north.
     • Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts: Drones moving west.
     • Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts: Drones moving west and south.
     • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones moving east and south.
     • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones moving towards Mykolaiv.

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (23:19:22 UTC) reports two more drones heading towards Mykolaiv, one towards Tsentralnyi/Zavodskyi districts, and one near Parutyne, heading through Velyka Korenykha.

     • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (23:29:22) reports 3 new drones approaching Parutyne.

   • Assessment: This confirms the CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, with MULTIPLE WAVES targeting various regions. The concentration of drones heading towards MYKOLAIV remains a MAJOR CONCERN. The diverse flight paths across Ukraine indicate a SUSTAINED EFFORT to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES. The reports are CONSISTENT with previous updates, showing a LARGE-SCALE, COORDINATED ATTACK.

3. THREAT FROM MAYOR OF BORYSPIL (REPORTED):

   • Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny (23:18:14) reported the threat of a "global cleansing" by the Ukrainian military, as stated by the Mayor of Boryspil, Volodymyr Borysenko.
   • Assessment: This could signify a significant internal threat to Zelensky's leadership.

4. RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (23:18:01 UTC) reports Russian advances near Ulakly, Novyi Komar, Preobrazhenka, in Zaporizhzhia, Andrivka, and Novo-Ocheretuvate.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the earlier Russian claims of advances near ULAKLY and ANDRIVKA, and adds NEW LOCATIONS to the list. This is a SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT, indicating MULTIPLE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGHS across different fronts. This requires IMMEDIATE RESPONSE to STABILIZE THE SITUATION and prevent further losses.

5. INDIA & PARTNERSHIPS (REPORTED):

   • Colonelcassad (23:35:06) reports about the diversification of India's partnerships in terms of acquiring military equipment, including drones, from both Russia and the USA.
   • Assessment: This confirms India's independent military strategy.

Updated Situation Summary

• PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple waves of drones continue to target various regions of Ukraine, with a significant concentration heading towards MYKOLAIV.
• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian sources confirm Russian advances in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, including Ulakly, Novyi Komar, Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia, Andrivka, and Novo-Ocheretuvate. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT: The intense ground fighting, claimed Russian advances, massive drone attack, and political pressures all remain HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT AND RESPONSE, PRIORITIZE MYKOLAIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for air defense systems across ALL THREATENED REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on MYKOLAIV, given the confirmed concentration of drone activity.
   • Deploy all available resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones.
   • Utilize the detailed drone movement information from the Ukrainian Air Force and Nikolaevskiy Vanyok to OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Continue issuing clear and frequent warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events and infrastructure damage.

2. RESPOND TO CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately reinforce Ukrainian positions in and around Ulakly, Novyi Komar, Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia, Andrivka, and Novo-Ocheretuvate.
   • Deploy all available reserves to COUNTER THE RUSSIAN ADVANCES and prevent further breakthroughs.
   • Assess the possibility of counterattacks to regain lost ground.
   • Gather further intelligence on Russian troop strength and intentions in these areas.
   • Prepare for potential defensive operations if the situation deteriorates further.

3. ADDRESS POTENTIAL INTERNAL THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather information to asses the extent of the threat.

4. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DETERIORATING RAPIDLY. The PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK and the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS are the MOST IMMEDIATE AND URGENT THREATS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to CONTAIN THE RUSSIAN ADVANCES, protect against the DRONE ATTACK, and maintain STABILITY on the front lines. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with adjustments to prioritize the most urgent developments.